Winter Thread 2018-19 (Northern Hemisphere) (snowfall, warmest, recorded, temperatures)

[piperdiva]

Originally Posted by Cambium

7pm and theres frost?? 29°?!!! What month is it? Weird not to get warm breaks here.



Cant believe how much wood we used already. Almost a cord and not even mid December.

Mmmmm....



Whoops!



Forgot how fast it burns inside a wood stove. Lol

That's the best way to eat 'em!

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

so the storm track moved east but the temperatures didn't get colder? or just not cold enough for snow?

https://www.city-data.com/forum/53826867-post693.html

It did trend colder for Sunday-Monday every day since last week but precip amounts are lacking. Plus we have all this warm air around this weekend. Never good for big snowstorms when the cold air has to catch up.

Here is NAM for Sunday night. Snow and Ice for MA and into CT thanks to that changed storm track. . Nothing big though. Light precip





NWS has this for snowfall total forecast for now. https://www.weather.gov/erh/gis_wfo?id=BOX

[Craziaskowboi]

For what it's worth, AccuWeather only has two days with high temperatures in the 60s for my area in the next two weeks. It appears that the warmest temperature anomalies will be in the Northeast and Midwest, but not the South.

[LKJ1988]

Plenty of below normal temps for my area.

[lommaren]

Originally Posted by LKJ1988

Plenty of below normal temps for my area.

How are the reverse westerlies doing?

[LKJ1988]

Originally Posted by lommaren

How are the reverse westerlies doing?

That is a summer thing only. When what was the normal summer time ridge is displaced where the axis of the high is south of Tampa that is the not normal we get a reverse west windflow. We have had since the mid 80's due to ice melt and a displaced summertime ridge. So when gulf water temps are 84 to 90+ with a west wind blowing off the water 24/7 it would make any country blush with the insane dew points and lows of 77 to 84 all summer long. I hate to even think of May coming.

[Cambium]

I love ULLs but when its freezing rain involved I could care less about it.

NWS trended their forecasts on the colder side.

National Weather Service New York NY
630 PM EST Sat Dec 15 2018

Per previous discussion, primary concern into Sunday is the
potential for freezing rain to develop across far northern NJ,
the lower Hudson Valley and portions of western Connecticut.
Cold air damming at the surface as the high builds to our north
will allow temperatures to lower to right around freezing in
these areas. Coincidentally as the upper low nears, low level
warm advection will strengthen in strong easterly flow above the
surface, allowing a warm layer to develop between around
875-600 mb. As always, there is significant uncertainty
regarding the extent of cold air damming, but it is typical for
model forecasts to underdo the cold air, and then erode it too
fast once established. Trended on the colder side, more towards
the operational NAM, on temperatures, keeping forecast readings
near freezing through much of the day where a Winter Weather
Advisory is now in effect. The Cooperative Institute for
Precipitation Systems (CIPS) historical analogs reflect high
probabilities for freezing rain across the aforementioned areas,
lending some confidence towards a colder surface solution. It
is possible that freezing rain continues well into the
afternoon.

There are certainly two potential scenarios in which the
forecast could develop differently as well:

1. The colder/below freezing solution does not materialize, and
while a cold rain falls, freezing upon contact at the surface
does not occur.
2. As the upper low passes, colder temperatures aloft lead to
weak elevated instability, which may locally enhance precipitation
rates and even mix a bit of graupel in with the freezing rain.
If instability can develop, ice accumulations may be greater
than the 0.10-0.25 inch currently forecast for the advisory
areas.

Outside the advisory, confidence is low in both temperatures and
the expected amount of ice. A Special Weather Statement is in
effect highlighting the potential for ice in those periphery
areas, and should forecast/model solutions trend colder, then an
advisory may be needed.

[Craziaskowboi]

Originally Posted by muslim12

Here’s to a warm January hopefully... I pray... it’s been since 2013 I’m more than due at this point for a decent January with above average high and no freaky cold blasts.

You misspelled 2017.

[LKJ1988]

Just keep the heavy rain coming. 3 more 4" rain events this month and i will have the same amount i got in in Dec of 1997 when i had over 17".

[wawa1992]

Highs in the low 50s the next few days. More of this limbo crap.