Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Provincetown: condo, how much, tenant)

[NewfieMama]

Originally Posted by mdovell

I'm not saying it's falling but we're going to probably have to have a real shutdown if this is seen as communicable like the chicken pox

It seems like we have 3 groups of people.
Those over 12 who are vaccinated. According to the data, there are breakthrough cases due to Delta and some of those cases even require hospitalization, but to date very few vaccinated are dying.

Those who are choosing not to vaccinate. These people don't want shutdowns. They have assessed the risk and are content to continue with business as usual. I foresee this group being the least likely to tolerate a shutdown.

Children under 12 who have no access to a vaccine. This group does not seem to contract Covid at the same rate as adults and generally have much milder cases with very few deaths.

I agree with YevTK that case counts aren't the primary metric we should be using at this point. Hospital capacity seems to be a better metric now given that many breakthrough cases aren't resulting in hospitalizations.

Given that those who are vaccinated + children have a very low mortality rate even with Delta and those who are unvaccinated are fine with the risk of death, I don't see any shutdowns in the future. I don't the majority of those vaccinated or unvaccinated are willing to do that at this point unless hospitals are completely overwhelmed. Not that that isn't happening in clusters in the U.S. (my family is in one right now), but not nationwide.

ETA: I get that long-haul covid is a thing so it's not just about hospital capacity and death, but I don't think very many are interested in a shut down due to possible long-haul covid symptoms.

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by YevTK

The vaccinated will occupy a high proportion of beds due to the steep age related increase in hospitalization rates.

For example, according to the state data, the over 75s are over 50x more likely to be hospitalized after infection then the under 20s.

If you go to the MA covid data pages you can get the vaccination rates, cases and hospitalization rates by age. If you add the population by age you can then calculate the expected maximum hospitalizations by age and vaccination status.

Assuming vaccines are 95% effective at preventing hospitalizations, around 50% of the patients would be expected to be fully vaccinated.

As to deaths, the normal deaths per day in MA is 171. Interestingly, 14 typically die per day from respiratory conditions (2016 data). The CDC considers 5% above normal to be the threshold for excess deaths (9 per day). MA has been below threshold since the end of May.

ok yes the old will be hospitalized more and they probably have gotten vaccinated but there is no way to prove this vaccine prevents hospitalization or death. I will explain. so many people who are not vaccinated only get mild symptoms and never need hospitalization. so just because someone was vaccinated and never went to the hospital by pure logic means they could of never needed a vaccine to prevent that hospitalization because so many have mild symptoms. you don't know what would of happened if they did not take the vaccine that is a logical fallacy.

[justyouraveragetenant]

I just want to leave this video if anyone is interested. I know a lot of you in Massachusetts forums don't venture out to other areas of the city data forums but this is somewhat related to the steps Massachusetts have taken. the lockdowns and the extreme measures fit the correlation between infectious diseases and authoritarianism.

while this might be somewhat hyperbole it's still relevant...

a lot of you think there is no extreme when combating a virus that it's ok to take away people's rights.

a very interesting lecture...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO6VfFqvRkM&t=328s

there is more of a correlation between infectious diseases being around and authoritarianism than even iq and grades!

we have to watch out so things do not go too far where even you Massachusetts residents will be begging for the authoritarianism to stop.

[in_newengland]

Originally Posted by justyouraveragetenant

I just want to leave this video if anyone is interested. I know a lot of you in Massachusetts forums don't venture out to other areas of the city data forums but this is somewhat related to the steps Massachusetts have taken. the lockdowns and the extreme measures fit the correlation between infectious diseases and authoritarianism.

while this might be somewhat hyperbole it's still relevant...

a lot of you think there is no extreme when combating a virus that it's ok to take away people's rights.

a very interesting lecture...


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yO6VfFqvRkM&t=328s

there is more of a correlation between infectious diseases being around and authoritarianism than even iq and grades!

we have to watch out so things do not go too far where even you Massachusetts residents will be begging for the authoritarianism to stop.

Sorry, but contrary to what you think, many people in this state keep up with things and we actually would like to be protected. When someone adds some rules that can help keep us healthy, a lot of us are actually grateful. We understand that the Delta variant is very contagious. We know that the vaccine wears off and we realize that people who fall into certain categories are very much at risk. There will always be a few anywhere who will childishly rebel, but most of us welcome most measures that our state has to take to do what we elected them to do--that is, to protect us. We don't want masks or shutdowns and we are sick of it but if it has to be, it has to be. If our governor needs to take charge, so be it. Authoritarianism is when they're telling you what to do and there's no good reason for it and you don't want it.

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by in_newengland

Sorry, but contrary to what you think, many people in this state keep up with things and we actually would like to be protected. When someone adds some rules that can help keep us healthy, a lot of us are actually grateful. We understand that the Delta variant is very contagious. We know that the vaccine wears off and we realize that people who fall into certain categories are very much at risk. There will always be a few anywhere who will childishly rebel, but most of us welcome most measures that our state has to take to do what we elected them to do--that is, to protect us. We don't want masks or shutdowns and we are sick of it but if it has to be, it has to be. If our governor needs to take charge, so be it. Authoritarianism is when they're telling you what to do and there's no good reason for it and you don't want it.

sorry do you think at the time the german people did not think what was being done was necessary?

if it was so ridiculous then how come so many participated?

typhus was going around back then and infectious disease was a tool hitler used to make people fear the jews.

he said they were causing the infection just like now they are blaming the unvaccinated.

all you leftys do is insult anyone that has a different opinion than yourself and are extremely judgemental humans.

you could believe something is good and its not. I could believe something is good and its not.

there is a saying" hell is paved with good intentions"

be careful whenever you hear for the common good.

i give up you are all brainwashed and you will get what's coming I hope Massachusetts becomes so authoritarian that it would even make your head spin.

lots of people in history were ridiculed later to be found right.



so anyone that does not follow orders is childish? hmm what was the defense of the nazi doctors when put on trial? I was just following orders.

i saw a program how men were capable of putting a bullet in a pregnant women head. now I know.

i guess rosa parks was childish too and martin Luther king.

i want to say I was getting mad at these lockdowns and crazy rule but if the people want them they deserve what they get. let the lockdowns begin!!! ha ha ha you will suffer
when the economy goes to crap. in authoritarianism often times the people do want it. as we see in massechusetts.

[justyouraveragetenant]

the governor surprised me I thought he would bring back the mask mandates. you better call him yourself on how you are disappointed that not only are not masks required for everybody but he did not enforce lockdowns because this delta variant is more dangerous and I think he did it because he wants to get elected in the next election.

if he brings the lockdowns back it could end his chance for re-election.

this delta variant might kill 500 thousand what will we do!

[msRB311]

We got some update from my kids school that masks will be strongly encouraged in the fall. I didn't even read the whole thing but what exactly should one do about being strongly encouraged to wear a mask ? Either make them mandatory or don't.

[YevTK]

Originally Posted by justyouraveragetenant

ok yes the old will be hospitalized more and they probably have gotten vaccinated but there is no way to prove this vaccine prevents hospitalization or death. I will explain. so many people who are not vaccinated only get mild symptoms and never need hospitalization. so just because someone was vaccinated and never went to the hospital by pure logic means they could of never needed a vaccine to prevent that hospitalization because so many have mild symptoms. you don't know what would of happened if they did not take the vaccine that is a logical fallacy.

Logical fallacy? There is plenty of data from all over the world that clearly shows vaccines work to dramatically reduce hospitalization and death. How do you explain that fact that the average age of infection and hospitalization is falling in MA?

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by YevTK

Logical fallacy? There is plenty of data from all over the world that clearly shows vaccines work to dramatically reduce hospitalization and death. How do you explain that fact that the average age of infection and hospitalization is falling in MA?

the virus is taking its course. the delta variant while more contagious is less deadly. why? well in most cases not all when a virus mutates it becomes less deadly. id rather have a very contagious virus that gives most a sniffle than a not so contagious virus that kills a small amount. are you going to shut down businesses for a cold? of course, not that is lunacy.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by justyouraveragetenant

the virus is taking its course. the delta variant while more contagious is less deadly. why? well in most cases not all when a virus mutates it becomes less deadly. id rather have a very contagious virus that gives most a sniffle than a not so contagious virus that kills a small amount. are you going to shut down businesses for a cold? of course, not that is lunacy.

You are spreading misinformation.

The delta variant is not less deadly. Any legit doctor will tell you that it is more deadly. The reason we're not seeing that in the stats is because so many people are vaccinated, and the vaccines are working*.



* The vaccines don't make you invincible or fully protect you. You still need to take precautions.