Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Pittsfield, Adams, Williamstown: middle-class, 2014, how much)

[jayrandom]

Here is my prediction: COVID infection rates during the next surge will track reasonably well with vaccination rates. The higher the vaccination rate, the lower the ultimate trend in infections. The same will be true for hospitalizations and deaths. The higher the vaccination rate in a state, the lower the trend in hospitalizations and deaths.

Some people see the upward trend in Massachusetts cases and think we are headed for exactly the same level of outbreak that we had in the fall. I think there is enough evidence of vaccine effectiveness to believe that is not the case. I could be wrong. I also think that the more restrictions are piled on now, especially in a state like Massachusetts, the less likely people are to get the vaccine.

Some sources:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01407-5
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01410-w
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

[Urban Peasant]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Here is my prediction: COVID infection rates during the next surge will track reasonably well with vaccination rates. The higher the vaccination rate, the lower the ultimate trend in infections. The same will be true for hospitalizations and deaths. The higher the vaccination rate in a state, the lower the trend in hospitalizations and deaths.

Some people see the upward trend in Massachusetts cases and think we are headed for exactly the same level of outbreak that we had in the fall. I think there is enough evidence of vaccine effectiveness to believe that is not the case. I could be wrong. I also think that the more restrictions are piled on now, especially in a state like Massachusetts, the less likely people are to get the vaccine.

Some sources:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01407-5
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01410-w
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

I sincerely hope your prediction is true. Sometimes tracking the percentages and watching the curve trend upwards is nerve wracking and dismaying though. As for restrictions, I don't think we have had too many that were too stringent. Mask wearing is an annoyance to many but I've somehow gotten used to it by now. FSA money can now pay for masks and with increased production, they're not nearly as pricey as when the pandemic started. As for the Covid vaccine, well for many years I did not bother to get the flu vaccine but after two consecutive years of catching the flu and missing time off work because of it, I finally bucked up and started getting one yearly beginning late in 2019. It didn't seem to bother me and neither did my two Pfizer shots so I don't know why people are so up in arms about vaccines.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by Urban Peasant

I sincerely hope your prediction is true. Sometimes tracking the percentages and watching the curve trend upwards is nerve wracking and dismaying though. As for restrictions, I don't think we have had too many that were too stringent. Mask wearing is an annoyance to many but I've somehow gotten used to it by now. FSA money can now pay for masks and with increased production, they're not nearly as pricey as when the pandemic started. As for the Covid vaccine, well for many years I did not bother to get the flu vaccine but after two consecutive years of catching the flu and missing time off work because of it, I finally bucked up and started getting one yearly beginning late in 2019. It didn't seem to bother me and neither did my two Pfizer shots so I don't know why people are so up in arms about vaccines.

There have always been anti-vaccine kooks. But they used to be a relatively small number of people, and for most people, vaccination was a common sense health care measure. A concerted campaign of disinformation for the past year against any information that the pandemic is dangerous and against all measures that one might use to protect themselves personally against the pandemic and to slow its spread throughout society at large (masks, social distancing, vaccines, etc), has left a near majority of Americans siding decidedly with Covid-19. Psychology research has shown that when people hear the same idea over and over and over again, they are virtually powerless to resist it, even if they initially know it's wrong. This is called the "illusory truth effect".

"Knowledge Does Not Protect Against Illusory Truth", Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 2015.
https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/fe...ge-0000098.pdf

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

There have always been anti-vaccine kooks. But they used to be a relatively small number of people, and for most people, vaccination was a common sense health care measure. A concerted campaign of disinformation for the past year against any information that the pandemic is dangerous and against all measures that one might use to protect themselves personally against the pandemic and to slow its spread throughout society at large (masks, social distancing, vaccines, etc), has left a near majority of Americans siding decidedly with Covid-19. Psychology research has shown that when people hear the same idea over and over and over again, they are virtually powerless to resist it, even if they initially know it's wrong. This is called the "illusory truth effect".

"Knowledge Does Not Protect Against Illusory Truth", Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 2015.
https://www.apa.org/pubs/journals/fe...ge-0000098.pdf

This sounds more like the mainstream narrative on Covid-19 than any "concerted disinformation campaign" you imagine there to be.

The attached photo is what a "concerted disinformation campaign" actually looks like. Bots with fake names on Twitter spreading the exact same canned, panicked message about overflowing ICUs, to try to scare people and exaggerate risk.

What you're calling a "concerted disinformation campaign," on the complete contrary, is mostly people -- real people -- who have had their lives thrown into a blender over the past 18 months and are demanding answers.

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

This sounds more like the mainstream narrative on Covid-19 than any "concerted disinformation campaign" you imagine there to be.

The attached photo is what a "concerted disinformation campaign" actually looks like. Bots with fake names on Twitter spreading the exact same canned, panicked message about overflowing ICUs, to try to scare people and exaggerate risk.

What you're calling a "concerted disinformation campaign," on the complete contrary, is mostly people -- real people -- who have had their lives thrown into a blender over the past 18 months and are demanding answers.

gave you some rep for this!!

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by YevTK

Why would we want to cancel these events?

The only thing this might achieve is slowing the spread but for what purpose?

Give more time for another variant to arise? Develop an updated vaccine that 30% of the population will refuse to take?

The only way out of this is for the unvaccinated to get the virus and get some natural immunity. As long as the hospitals can cope, we should no nothing.

Asong as unvaccinated think it's fake they'll also think they should be accommodated. Mutations make herd immunity impossible.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Asong as unvaccinated think it's fake they'll also think they should be accommodated. Mutations make herd immunity impossible.

I don't know why you try to argue with that guy. I added a few more winners to my prestigious ignore list.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by justyouraveragetenant

That's funny the podcast I listen too has a host who belongs to Mensa and he does not believe the masks work

Go argue against the millions of doctors, nurses, and hospital personnel who've been using masks for decades to protect themselves and prevent the spread of communicable diseases. You'd rather believe the idiotic ravings of a podcast host vs. millions of empirical data points.

[msRB311]

The drs and nurses mainly wear masks when performing surgeries though. They were never just walking around wearing masks all the time. They never wore them in the ER when sick people were coming in one after the next. I'm not sure what it means when people say well drs and nurses have been wearing masks for decades. They wear them when performing surgery main reason being so that someone's blood and guts don't get in their mouth and nose and they don't breath their own possibly infected breath on someone while standing over them for hours. That is it. It has nothing to do with covid. The cdc actually said at the beginning of all this that masks don't work then it was n95s. The main types of masks I see people wearing are the cotton/cloth ones

I'm honestly over the mask thing especially since this thing is spreading even when people are vaccinated.

[mdovell]

Here we go again

https://www.iberkshires.com/story/65...ccination.html

"The hospital's updated COVID-19 page Friday lists six positive patients and another 11 inpatients pending tests. In the last seven days, the medical center has had 49 positives.

Berkshire County reported 12 new cases since Thursday for a total to date of 6,660. There were seven cases reported Wednesday, and 11 Thursday, for a total of 30 in the last three days.

The health system reportedly has anywhere from 3,000 to 4,000 employees and, according to Lederer's email, about 800 are still not vaccinated. The health system is separate from Berkshire Healthcare, which operates a number of skilled nursing and rehabilitation homes in Western Mass.

The nursing home system struggled during the first year of the pandemic to prevent spread but major breakouts in Williamstown and Pittsfield killed upwards of 50 residents."

So 20-26% of a Healthcare systems employees are *NOT* vaccinated!?!? Seriously... Have we learned nothing.