Coronavirus in Massachusetts (how much, theater, vs)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

The real issue is that research in general and COVID-19 requires large scale data-collection. If someone does not believe that data collection is done honestly, no amount of reasoning or logic based on the data will convince them otherwise.

Specifically with COVID-19, the problem has been confounded by authorities making grand, scientific-sounding proclamations in the absence of sufficient data or those overstating the effectiveness of things like masks. When the message should have been "while we don't know exactly the magnitude of the effect, it seems that universal masking will help reduce transmission" became, after a few cycles through the culture war, "if you don't wear a mask at all times, you are literally killing everyone you meet and will also die a horrible death yourself". That has eroded trust, especially for those who little trust in "the system".

Despite dutifully wearing my cloth mask, I am still not convinced they are particularly effective. I don't think they are ineffective, but something that reduces transmission in the 5-10% range. I think social distancing in general, avoiding crowded indoor spaces, frequent testing, and contact tracing are much more effective. There has not been (nor has there really been time) to run detailed, scientifically rigorous studies to prove (or disprove) my intuition.

https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/10/20-0948_article

I am, however, fully 100% convinced by the data that vaccines are INCREDIBLY effective. The trials are actually incredibly simple. All they do is pick a large group of people, randomly assign half to get the vaccine and half to get a placebo, and see who gets sick. After two weeks, the people who got the placebo made up the majority of the new infections.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2020...it-looks-good/

Cloth and surgical masks are effective only if everyone wears them and there are no exposed noses or cell phone morons. N95 masks protect yourself. I have 50 non-FDA 3M masks showing up in a Bezos van today. They’re in reserve for when I’m 6 months beyond my Pfizer jabs and 42% vaccinated New Bedford has their Delta variant outbreak. My fiancée crossses 6 months in a couple of weeks. For the few hours per week of indoor retail shopping we do, we’re planning to start using N95 masks. If we lived in Vermont or blue chip Boston suburbia, we probably wouldn’t bother. I’m kind of annoyed that I have to do this because a bunch of morons refuse to do their civic duty and get vaccinated.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Despite dutifully wearing my cloth mask, I am still not convinced they are particularly effective.

Used alone, around unmasked people they are only good at filtering out maybe 10% of particulates. Cloth masks, surgical masks, bandanas, t-shirts, etc were right around the same ballpark 10-15% range of particle reduction. This is my own data from testing my company did early last year.

They are more effective as a diffuser knocking down the transmission of particles from someone who potentially infected.

SO as has been said many times before, those cloth/blue surgical masks are to protect others, but if you must protect yourself (as when venturing near groups of unmasked people), get a (properly fitted) N95 mask.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Used alone, around unmasked people they are only good at filtering out maybe 10% of particulates. Cloth masks, surgical masks, bandanas, t-shirts, etc were right around the same ballpark 10-15% range of particle reduction. This is my own data from testing my company did early last year.

They are more effective as a diffuser knocking down the transmission of particles from someone who potentially infected.

SO as has been said many times before, those cloth/blue surgical masks are to protect others, but if you must protect yourself (as when venturing near groups of unmasked people), get a (properly fitted) N95 mask.

Also, trim the beard if you have one. My employer requires mask fitment testing for anyone with access to the labs/prototyping areas. Those who tested with a beard thicker than a no. 1 blade were more or less a guaranteed to fail and those who did have short beards (no 1 or shorter) during testing had a <40% success rate. One can improve their fit with a exercise elastic band wrapped around the head/jaw, but that seems like a ridiculous solution versus simply losing the beard (religious reasons included, IMO).

There’s a TON of good research regarding n95/respirator fitment which aligns with the above anecdote. Clean shave and get fitted if high-risk.

[mdovell]

Since we have a new president I would think international relations would get better. Kinda..sorta.

Anyways I grew up on the south shore and knew a number of Haitians. I heard the news. So you have one of the poorest countries in the world probably a few hours from southern Florida that ask for military help and they don't get it. First I was ticked off. We're sending only FBI and some other federal agencies. We've sent troops there in '94 and had a huge response for the earthquake. Heck I almost volunteered to help at the time.

Anyways then I heard the other reason why we aren't sending troops. There hasn't been one shot of the vaccine provide. Not one. Think about that... I'm not talking about the chinese one or russian one...like NONE!

Cuba also had protests to a level not seen in decades. Covid there has gone up FIVE fold in the past month. I would argue if fatalities are at 2% they have been lying about the deaths by three fold.

I don't think we're going to have that much for borders opening if this is the case. I know we often talk about India, China and Israel on this but seven of the top ten per capital fatalities in this are in Latin america
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality

I still have the huge amount of home made sanitizer I made when everything sold out. Still have a fair amount of masks. I'm not sure if everyone mentally can deal with another shutdown if we have one in the fall or winter. I consider myself a strong man but if we have another round of people dying en masse in nursing homes due to Delta spreading I'm going to cry. I lost my paternal grandmother a month before this hit the fan, I have no doubt if she lived she would have passed from this months later. This really has to be the global priority.

[OutdoorLover]

Regarding the effectiveness of masks, I haven't gone back to the literature, but my understand is that viral particles will often not be naked virus, but will be virus entrained in tiny mucous droplets. Not only do these make the effective particle size significantly larger, they make them "stickier", and if a particle touches the fiber of the mesh of a mask layer, even if can fit through the adjacent opening, it will be trapped on the mask by binding to the fiber. So simple analyses based on mesh opening size and naked viral particles may underestimate the effectiveness of masks. I know they're not 100% effective, but my impression from the articles I've read in the past is that the protection is significant.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

Regarding the effectiveness of masks, I haven't gone back to the literature, but my understand is that viral particles will often not be naked virus, but will be virus entrained in tiny mucous droplets. Not only do these make the effective particle size significantly larger, they make them "stickier", and if a particle touches the fiber of the mesh of a mask layer, even if can fit through the adjacent opening, it will be trapped on the mask by binding to the fiber. So simple analyses based on mesh opening size and naked viral particles may underestimate the effectiveness of masks. I know they're not 100% effective, but my impression from the articles I've read in the past is that the protection is significant.

That’s true for flu transmission which is why it took so long to recognize that aerosol transmission is a thing. Droplet transmission vs aerosol transmission. Aerosol particles that remain airborne are 5 microns or less. A cloth mask when you’re surrounded by maskless people who might be infected isn’t very good protection.

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

Hyperbole, like usual. Even Rupert Murdock’s WSJ writes that around half of Israeli infections are people who were vaccinated 6+ months ago. This is an argument for a booster shot, not an argument that vaccines don’t work. Furthermore, the infections being detected are from contract tracing and they’re asymptomatic or mild with very few severe cases among the vaccinated. It’s why Israel opted to refrain from pulling the plug on their economy. They can live with asymptomatic and mild symptoms among the vaccinated. Nobody can properly deal with a large outbreak among unvaccinated people where the hospitals overflow.

Citation: https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj...ak-11624624326

Well, it's an argument that the vaccines don't work well enough not to need a booster shot. Which makes the bleating about "get vaccinated so we can get back to normal" ring more than a little hollow. Which is what some of us have been saying the entire time.

[Amontillado]

I don't expect the Delta variant will cause misery in nursing homes the way the original virus did, because now the staff and residents are vaccinated, and the vaccines are pretty good against Delta. But what nobody knows is what the Epsilon and Zeta variants will be like, and on into the future. Because it does seem likely that there will be new and different variants, and some day there may be one that just laughs at our puny vaccines. The best we can hope for is that now the health services are on their guard, and maybe a new vaccine can be developed and shipped quickly. But there can't be any guarantees.

(I made up the ”Epsilon and Zeta variants”. Please don't go looking around for them, at least not yet.)

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

Well, it's an argument that the vaccines don't work well enough not to need a booster shot. Which makes the bleating about "get vaccinated so we can get back to normal" ring more than a little hollow. Which is what some of us have been saying the entire time.

I had a booster shot for my yellow fever vaccine. I don't understand the problem with boosters. I get them for other vaccines. In time I would hope the efficiency would be improved in the coming decades that they're needed less frequently, but its hardly a reasonable issue to have against the vaccine.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

Regarding the effectiveness of masks, I haven't gone back to the literature, but my understand is that viral particles will often not be naked virus, but will be virus entrained in tiny mucous droplets. Not only do these make the effective particle size significantly larger, they make them "stickier", and if a particle touches the fiber of the mesh of a mask layer, even if can fit through the adjacent opening, it will be trapped on the mask by binding to the fiber. So simple analyses based on mesh opening size and naked viral particles may underestimate the effectiveness of masks. I know they're not 100% effective, but my impression from the articles I've read in the past is that the protection is significant.

Without going into too much detail, when we were testing mask effectiveness we did test with suspended aerosol particulates that were atomized in a liquid solution meant to simulate virus suspended in mucus. We could generate these particles in a particular size range.

You can actually build an effective filter with pore sizes MUCH larger than the particles you are trying to filter out. What you state is true and is a verified capture mechanism for filters. Problem is, cloth was never intended to be a filter, so it just doesn't work well in the real world.