[Cambium]

Using winter months for CT here's how it looks since 1940.

The trend is obviously warmer since 1940. 1980s and 90s were above normal mostly.
Last 18 years 11 winters have been above normal. 7 below normal including last year.

The bottom of the lows are higher each time since the mid 70s.

So to me it looks like we move warmer from here on out but we didnt sustain consecutive warmer then normal winters during the last spike.

[Cambium]

Superbowl Storm Update:

Perfect example of how hard it is in this area to get snow(or cold for that matter). Its like you have to thread a needle. Things have to be so perfect.

Left image is last nights GFS run. Snowstorm for all of us.
Right image is this mornings update. Dry as a bone.

Also note, one has the storm for Saturday afternoon and the other for Friday morning. Which means models still unsure of how fast to eject the storm from the south.

A slower solution will bring a snowstorm so the coldfront and trough can dig down in time. (notice the trough (blue line) how far it digs on left image. (yes, thats snow in Alabama)

[7 Wishes]

Interesting note on the NWS OKX site. I know it's in NY but it's close to CT so I'm mostly noting it due to the historic nature (i.e. I wouldn't post this here if it was one of the tri-state airport stations except for Sikorsky). I wonder if this is the first time since Central Park's weather station opened on New Year's Day 1869 that's there's going to be an interruption in the record, while I find that hard to believe I actually did a little research and couldn't find any other gaps. Apparently, nothing has been recorded since 10am yesterday and the daily climate report was blank:

"THE WEATHER OBSERVATION FROM CENTRAL PARK WILL BE UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS IS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT POWER INTERRUPTION TO THE CENTRAL PARK AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING STATION (ASOS) AND BACKUP STATION. UTILITY WORKERS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO SERVICE."

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Interesting note on the NWS OKX site. I know it's in NY but it's close to CT so I'm mostly noting it due to the historic nature (i.e. I wouldn't post this here if it was one of the tri-state airport stations except for Sikorsky). I wonder if this is the first time since Central Park's weather station opened on New Year's Day 1869 that's there's going to be an interruption in the record, while I find that hard to believe I actually did a little research and couldn't find any other gaps. Apparently, nothing has been recorded since 10am yesterday and the daily climate report was blank:

"THE WEATHER OBSERVATION FROM CENTRAL PARK WILL BE UNAVAILABLE UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE. THIS IS DUE TO A SIGNIFICANT POWER INTERRUPTION TO THE CENTRAL PARK AUTOMATED SURFACE OBSERVING STATION (ASOS) AND BACKUP STATION. UTILITY WORKERS ARE ADDRESSING THE PROBLEM...BUT THERE IS CURRENTLY NO ESTIMATED TIME FOR RETURN TO SERVICE."

I just hope they get it up soon. NWS Central Park is an important observation in the Tri-State area. We seem to have a dearth of stations on the coast as it is. I really wish the NWS would take the time to have another coastal station in Connecticut that F6 data is collected.

[Cambium]

Cold front came through last night and we're warm today. LOL
Some light snow showers here and there from tonight till Tuesday.



Wednesday Temps back in the 50s. Look how far up the 70s come up. LOL



Superbowl Weekend Storm

The system is still over Tokyo. Once it gets to near Alaska models will have better handle on it.

[Cambium]

Superbowl Weekend Winter Storm Update::

I said WOW to 2 things.

1. Hurricane hunters are going to fly into the system over the Pacific to put data into the 12z runs...they usually do it just for the 00z runs. So apparently they are interested in this system.

2. Both the GFS and Euro now show a storm coming from Mid West, into Ohio valley, transfering its energy into a coastal low that forms and moves up the coast.

Latest Euro has a significant snowstorm (12"+ for MA, southern VT, NH, ME and parts of NY) Northern CT 6-12", and coastal areas would see 3-6".

We shouldnt be talking about totals just yet. lets see how the models handle the entire event first.


Euro Left. GFS Right.


Euro12z Snow total.

[7 Wishes]

Ha ha, looks like winter has been cancelled:

Winter Jam Canceled Due to Lack of Winter - NYTimes.com

uh, except in Alaska:

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/harshest-cold-spell-in-years-f/60867 (broken link)

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Ha ha, looks like winter has been cancelled:

Winter Jam Canceled Due to Lack of Winter - NYTimes.com

uh, except in Alaska:

Harshest Cold Spell in Years for Fairbanks, Alaska (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/harshest-cold-spell-in-years-f/60867 - broken link)

And Japan. Over 75" of snow. Record Snow Sweeps Japan -- NTDTV.com

And Bulgaria/Romania - Three feet of snow in 24 hours Tragic situation in Bulgaria and Romania

And now Europe getting hit with snow and sub zeros After very mild December and January

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Ha ha, looks like winter has been cancelled:

Winter Jam Canceled Due to Lack of Winter - NYTimes.com

uh, except in Alaska:

Harshest Cold Spell in Years for Fairbanks, Alaska (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/harshest-cold-spell-in-years-f/60867 - broken link)

To be honest, I think they used last year as a yardstick for this event...which was of course a huge mistake. A winter jam that counts on deep snow in NYC was a gamble from the start.

Otherwise, weather looks nice most of this week in the Tri-State. Seasonable temps and mostly dry

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

To be honest, I think they used last year as a yardstick for this event...which was of course a huge mistake. A winter jam that counts on deep snow in NYC was a gamble from the start.

Otherwise, weather looks nice most of this week in the Tri-State. Seasonable temps and mostly dry

I didn't notice how long they've been doing it, if it's recent I think you're "dead on" (the only time I had heard of a NYC event like this before is back in 1996 when then-Mayor Giuliani had a special festival a couple of days after the all time total seasonal snowfall record was broken).

If it's not something that just started recently, the cold may be more the reason as they could probably make the snow. Since historically on any given date, NYC (and even the CT coast to some degree) more often had thin or no snow cover than significant cover (I think I read somewhere the average # of days with snow cover of any kind in this region is something like 25-35 days (NYC itself being closer to the 25)) which would place the odds at about 1/3 - 1/4. Certainly you don't have near-continuous cover all winter like I had 3 of the 4 winters I spent in the Albany area two decades or so ago.