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Old 04-16-2012, 04:17 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,361,630 times
Reputation: 2157

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I just got home – my min/max hit 81 F east of New Haven about 1 mile from the coast! NWS Windsor Locks smashed record with high of 92 F.

With this current warmth…I think NWS area stations are headed toward another well above normal month. Add in the relentless sun and bone dry conditions and the fire danger is getting really bad. NWS issued this late today:



URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
346 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

CTZ005>008-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-170400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FW.A.0009.120417T1600Z-120418T0000Z/
/O.CON.KOKX.FW.W.0007.000000T0000Z-120417T0000Z/
NORTHERN FAIRFIELD-NORTHERN NEW HAVEN-NORTHERN MIDDLESEX-
NORTHERN NEW LONDON-WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-
WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-
WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-
NORTHERN WESTCHESTER-
346 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND INCREASING GUSTY WINDS FOR
PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE AREA...

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS AND GUSTY WINDS FOR
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY
AND INTERIOR SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

* WINDS...THIS EVENING...WEST 5 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.
ON TUESDAY...GUSTY NORTHWEST FLOW WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH POSSIBLE.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS EVENING. ON
TUESDAY...HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RANGE FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT.

* TIMING...THE PEAK WINDS AND LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE
FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON. ON TUESDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE A SIGNIFICANTLY
ELEVATED FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

$$

CTZ009>012-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-170400-
/O.NEW.KOKX.FW.A.0009.120417T1600Z-120418T0000Z/
SOUTHERN FAIRFIELD-SOUTHERN NEW HAVEN-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-
SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN WESTCHESTER-NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-
BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-KINGS (BROOKLYN)-
NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-
SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS-NORTHERN NASSAU-
SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU-
346 PM EDT MON APR 16 2012

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING FOR LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOR
THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE TRI-STATE AREA...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...LONG ISLAND...NEW YORK CITY AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AS LOW AS 23 PERCENT.

* TIMING...THE STRONGEST WINDS AND LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY LEVELS
ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...INCREASED FIRE SPREAD IF IGNITION OCCURS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR. LISTEN FOR FURTHER UPDATES REGARDING THIS
POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
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Old 04-16-2012, 06:08 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,514 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Who wants to laugh?? Lets laugh together. DGEX model (an unreliable model) decides to show a snowstorm instead of rain. LOL!!

2-6" in CT and up to 8" in Eastern Mass. LOL!!

It basically shows a sharp cold front at the exact time of the coastal low which stays on a perfect track far to drop snow. Similar to how October setup.

I cant make this up. lol. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/dgexops.conus/

Surface map on left. Snow total in middle. Precip type on right.

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Old 04-16-2012, 06:20 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,361,630 times
Reputation: 2157
As of this week…most of the Tri-State is in D2 to D4 drought (severe to exceptional). Keep in mind with temps into the 80’s and 90’s today…soil conditions have become even drier than what this map shows:


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Old 04-16-2012, 06:56 PM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

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Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,467,780 times
Reputation: 15184
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Who wants to laugh?? Lets laugh together. DGEX model (an unreliable model) decides to show a snowstorm instead of rain. LOL!!

2-6" in CT and up to 8" in Eastern Mass. LOL!!
8" in Eastern MA?

I'm assuming this is just a model artifact, but after last October's storm it's to dismiss the most improbable forecasts.
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Old 04-16-2012, 11:14 PM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
26,406 posts, read 46,566,000 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Looks like the sea breeze is kicking in near the coast, Bridgeport down to 69, even Central Park down into the mid 70s. Hartford area still near 90 at the moment (Bradley's high today 91 so far, it actually may be the "warm spot" for all of New England if not the whole Northeast.....only other temp that high I could find down to VA was in Trenton, NJ and Poughkeepsie, NY).
90F in Concord , NH for 4/16, another record high temperature.
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Old 04-17-2012, 04:15 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,514 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Latest Euro 00z. Seriously??

Apparently it has the cold front/trough come through first and slows the storm down and keeps it off the coast.

Totally different from yesterdays 00z run where it had warm and storm over land.

Here's the surface map and where it puts snow down.

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Old 04-17-2012, 05:33 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,296 posts, read 18,882,521 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
90F in Concord , NH for 4/16, another record high temperature.
Yeah, some more 90+ popped up, Concord, NH, Albany and Syracuse NY (records tied there too), Burlington, VT and Allentown, PA (record broken at both), and finally Baltimore. I think Hartford's 92 was the warmest reading recorded.

No 90s in metro NYC (some consider Trenton NJ to be part of it I consider it to be part of Philly's metro), 88 in Central Park and Newark the highest.
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Old 04-17-2012, 06:26 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,514 posts, read 75,277,900 times
Reputation: 16619
Anyone see whats out in the Atlantic? lol. It's not tropical but it could mean 1 of two things.

1. It delays our weekend storm (maybe thats why models have it for 24th now)
2. It surpresses it keeping it south of us. LOL

Check out the loop on it! Eastern U. S. - Water Vapor Loop (Flash) - Satellite Services Division/Office of Satellite Data Processing and Distribution

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Old 04-17-2012, 07:20 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,361,630 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Yeah, some more 90+ popped up, Concord, NH, Albany and Syracuse NY (records tied there too), Burlington, VT and Allentown, PA (record broken at both), and finally Baltimore. I think Hartford's 92 was the warmest reading recorded.

No 90s in metro NYC (some consider Trenton NJ to be part of it I consider it to be part of Philly's metro), 88 in Central Park and Newark the highest.

No doubt yesterday was hot in the Tri-State area and up and down the East Coast.

Yesterdays temps have now pushed up NWS NYC to April monthly mean temp to 54.8 F.

The NWS records page has 1910 and 2005 tied for the number 10# spot at 55.1 F. Just 0.2 F and April 2012 will be the third month in the last three to make the list of the top 10 warmest on record at NWS Central Park. With temps forecasted to be cooler, but still above normal by this weekend (70 F forecasted for CP on Saturday)…April 2012 has a real shot. I only wish NWS Bridgeport had data that far back.


In the last 17 days…only two day were not above normal!




.
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Old 04-17-2012, 07:28 AM
nei nei won $500 in our forum's Most Engaging Poster Contest - Thirteenth Edition (Jan-Feb 2015). 

Over $104,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum and additional contests are planned
 
Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,467,780 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post

In the last 17 days…only two day were not above normal!
Odd. Definitely not true here. Until a few days ago, April was running colder than March.
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