[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

By the way, maps actually now show a small batch of rain about to come into CT......it don't look like much but I guess today's "southern rain" moved a little further north than they thought.....map looks like it's pouring from south of Philly through DC.

One of the things I’ve noticed that keeps happening with the “expected” rainfall is that the % chance of rainfall always falls as the rain event gets closer. NWS now has places like New Haven with a 70% chance of rain on Sunday and Monday, yet when I looked at the forecast yesterday at this time they had a 90% chance of rain on these two days. It would not shock me if these numbers again fall to 40 or 50% by Saturday. I really can't see us geting much rain out of this system this coming weekend, and it will do little to help the drought I think.

As far as records I had time to check the warmest Aprils on record at Central Park since 1869: If the month ended today, April 2012 would be tied for the sixth (6th) spot at 55. 7 F. I see above normal temps for Thur/Fri/and maybe Sat…then normal or even slightly below Sun/Mon/Tue (mostly because the rain and clouds), then edging to slightly above normal to the end of the month. I can’t believe it (I was wrong and Brett Anderson and NOAA was right I guess)… but we may yet again see a top 10 warmest month at NWS Central Park this April.

I never thought a mild winter would give way to a warm and sunny spring of this intensity. Can’t say I’m not loving it - I already have a tan - lol.

The 14 Warmest Aprils at Central Park since 1869:


57.9 2010
56.9 1941
56.2 1981
56.1 2002/1921
55.9 1969
55.7 1991/2006/2012 as of today.
55.6 1994/1945
55.5 1985
55.2 1974
55.1 1910/2005

[Cambium]

New Concern Now.

GFS 00z decides to throw in yet another solution. Keeps the 2 systems seperate (no phasing) so the cold front comes through first and pushes the storm well East of the area giving us NO RAIN. The only rain we get is from a small wave before which is less than an inch.

I dont see another good chance until end of month. This solution wouldnt be good for our drought.

06z is updating now.

[Cambium]

Here's the current infrared Satellite Map... You can see what needs to happen.

The cold front cant come through too fast it will cause Senario #2.
But if it comes too slow then the storm can go inland west of us Senario #1 and we wont get "as much" rain.
Senario #3 would be to merge them and have the storm right on the coast.

I dont believe Senario #2 will happen.

[Cambium]

6z just out. NO RAIN AGAIN except for a little bit Saturday night.

No further comment.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

One of the things I’ve noticed that keeps happening with the “expected” rainfall is that the % chance of rainfall always falls as the rain event gets closer. NWS now has places like New Haven with a 70% chance of rain on Sunday and Monday, yet when I looked at the forecast yesterday at this time they had a 90% chance of rain on these two days. It would not shock me if these numbers again fall to 40 or 50% by Saturday. I really can't see us geting much rain out of this system this coming weekend, and it will do little to help the drought I think.

Lol.

I hate to be the one who said I told you so. How did I do that 24 hrs in advance – because all the forecasters are “hoping for a lot rain” rather than actually seeing a lot of rain in the forecast. Not surprised at all.

I was watching Gil Simons and I know he is burning up that it has been so warm and sunny this spring in the Tri-State area. He tries to play up any chance of rain with icons that show an all day have rain (and temps in the low 50’s for highs)…yet by the next day he (or another forecaster) shows the rain icon gone or changed to partly cloudy, and the highs back into the 60’s (he showed low/mid 70’s next week). There is a big difference between what he hopes the weather will be and what it will really be.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

I hate to be the one who said I told you so. How did I do that 24 hrs in advance – because all the forecasters are “hoping for a lot rain” rather than actually seeing a lot of rain in the forecast. Not surprised at all.

Lets see.

2 Runs showed snow
2 Runs showed No storm
19 Runs showed big Rain storm.

Here's HPC's thoughts on rain total till Tuesday and placement of storm.

Hmmm, I guess they are going by hope too.

Hydrometeorological Prediction Center (HPC) Home Page


BTW - Euro, NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC still show a lot of rain.
Rule of thumb, "dont be sold on one run by one model"

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Lets see.

2 Runs showed snow
2 Runs showed No storm
19 Runs showed big Rain storm.

Here's HPC's thoughts on rain total till Tuesday and placement of storm.

Hmmm, I guess they are going by hope too.

BTW - Euro, NOGAPS, UKMET, CMC still show a lot of rain.
Rule of thumb, "dont be sold on one run by one model"

I assume HPC does an averaging of whatever models they consider confident enough? And with less updating than a model?

That October snow storm had a general colder drift in temperatures before the storm; I don't think we're getting the same thing.

Even 2 inches of rain isn't enough to put us back to average, but it should give us a reprieve for a short term, and remove any fire danger.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

I assume HPC does an averaging of whatever models they consider confident enough? And with less updating than a model?

That October snow storm had a general colder drift in temperatures before the storm; I don't think we're getting the same thing.

Good question. I think HPC updates once a day (maybe twice) and yes, they use a blend of 10+ models and all runs for that day.

Agree the snow idea was garbage.

~ The first key to this puzzle is a cold front that moves through on Saturday.

~ Second key is the mid and upper level winds. If they dont come from southeast, the cold front speeds up limiting our rainfall.

~ The faster the low pressure system develops over the Southeast, the sooner the cold front stalls, and the potential for heavy rainfall increases

[nei]

HPC's track has shifted to the east:

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

HPC's track has shifted to the east:

Thanks for the update! Guess they are seeing more probability of that now. If NAM and Euro runs today lean towards the East expect an even further shift again. NAM at 9am and 3pm. Euro at 2pm. GFS at 11am and 6pm.