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Old 04-23-2012, 11:45 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,888,129 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post

Though, I'm in upstate NY, and I'll say this is one of the memorable storms ever. Snow while some spring blooms are at their peak and a few past peak with tree foliage mostly out is something I've seen before. Not quite as impressive as the October storm but close (10" recorded nearby; map claims 6" here though a lot melted).
HMM, your profile says you're in western Massachusetts....

Where are you in upstate NY that has 10" nearby? Are you in Ithaca (since you quoted that snow total in the Nor'easter thread)? My sister went to Cornell (a long time ago though) so I know the town kind of well.....
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Old 04-23-2012, 11:48 AM
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Location: Western Massachusetts
45,983 posts, read 53,485,386 times
Reputation: 15184
Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
HMM, your profile says you're in western Massachusetts....

Where are you in upstate NY that has 10" nearby? Are you in Ithaca (since you quoted that snow total in the Nor'easter thread)? My sister went to Cornell (a long time ago though) so I know the town kind of well.....
Yea, I'm in Ithaca for several days. Actually inside the Cornell library at the moment...

Took these photos today and yesterday in Ithaca:

https://www.city-data.com/forum/23987318-post804.html

https://www.city-data.com/forum/23979129-post788.html
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Old 04-23-2012, 12:00 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Default April 2012 Storm Recap.

I like to Recap. LOOOONG POST HERE.

Posted 8 Days out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Latest GFS says, "you want rain?, here you have it for 3 days straight" LOL 20th-23rd. Stalls over us. Still shows big storm.
Whooops. No Stall. Only 24 hrs worth but some drizzle still coming all week.

From 7 Days Out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by GraniteStater View Post
Did you see the 12Z GFS? It seems to slow the storm down more as it is fighting the ridge, and QPF amounts in NH don't seem overly impressive.. This storm has to produce something or the fire danger and drought situation will get very bad quickly. I'm thinking at least 1 inch of precip at minimum will fall
Great Call!

Posted 7 Days Out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Either way I think we'll finally see rain for this time period.

Here's the latest GFS 3 day rain total for next week. Purples are good when your thirsty.
Finally. Rain.

Posted 5 Days Out
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Finally had time to check the totals from that Euro run. Maine gets a blizzard. parts of New Hampshire and MA get 6-12". 3-6" for Litchfield and Windham counties.

What are the odds this run of the Euro verifys? LOL! Dont count on it. .. unless it shows it consistantly like Octobers.

EDIT:: Afternoon update, Latest 12z GFS shows a foot of snow for upstate NY and just a dusting into CT. But latest Euro shows just rain. Looks like they swapped solutions. lol
Whooops to the Euro but like I said, dont count on it because it was only one or two runs.

Posted 4 Days out
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Lucky this isn't winter. With the trof going negative like that and the 988mb 3 day storm it would be 2+ feet of snow for some spots..

Lastest GFS continues. Rain Starts Saturday, Ends Tuesday.

4 inches of rain for Boston in 24hrs. 1-2" of rain for CT within a 24hr period Monday.
GFS got better. 988mb low exactly what happened. 1-2" within 24hrs turned out to be 3"

Posted 3 Days out.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
New Concern Now.

GFS 00z decides to throw in yet another solution. Keeps the 2 systems seperate (no phasing) so the cold front comes through first and pushes the storm well East of the area giving us NO RAIN.
06z is updating now.
Whooops! Bad Run.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
6z just out. NO RAIN AGAIN except for a little bit Saturday night.

No further comment.
Whooops! Bad Run Again.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
Lol.

I hate to be the one who said I told you so. How did I do that 24 hrs in advance – because all the forecasters are “hoping for a lot rain” rather than actually seeing a lot of rain in the forecast. Not surprised at all.
Whooops!

Posted 2 Days out:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
12z Runs are out.

NAM - slightly East but its in its long range.
GFS - Moved slightly west giving us some rain from it now.

NOGAPS - See 1st pic
Euro - See 2 pics after. Standing firm with its bomb and deserves a and a . 10-15" of snow for NY, PA, Great Lakes area.

So we have 2 models with ton of rain. 2 models with a little rain.

NOGAPS- Rain for us, Snow for Great Lakes and backend snow down to coast.

EURO - Coastal Bomb. Ton of rain. Blizzard for Great lakes and Central NY/PA
Kuddos to the Euro for depicting where the snow would fall. Perfect.

Posted 2 Days Out:
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
It's Midnight...and It's Official.. GFS caved and Bowed to King Euro. NAM did also.

Get your ubrellas, rain barrels, and secure loose objects. This could get nasty.

NAM and Euro show a healthy storm that would dent our severe drought status.

GFS just out goes to the other extreme and has a Irene size storm. 977mb low right over us. Wind and flooding rain would be an issue.

I still think a middle ground but its amazing to see they all are leaning to a stronger storm.
.
Its about time GFS!! Gees. Finally seeing the correct solution BUT was totally incorrect about strength. I'm glad I said "middle" ground. Actual Track was in the middle of the Euro and GFS and the strength was in between GFS and Euro.

::FINAL THOUGHTS::
Euro was basically too far west but got phasing correct as well as snow locations within 4 days.
GFS too far east and too fast and didnt see phasing until 2 days.
NAM had it the closest in regards to strength & track but obvious overdone on the qpf/snow amounts overall.

Bottom line? Middle Solution between GFS and Euro from 4 days out.

The GFS was the only one to advertise a 977mb low and did it only a couple times. The GFS also had No rain at all for us but only 1 or 2 runs.

But they all pretty much had 984-990 overall over NY State which is what happened.

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Old 04-24-2012, 04:03 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,888,129 times
Reputation: 5126
Weather Channel summer outlook released:

- Slightly above normal locally
- Many areas (including Texas, remember the 100-deg streak last year?) excepted to be slightly BELOW normal.
- Only area well above normal the upper Midwest

Who knows? Accuweather predicted a record snowy winter for the Midwest this just ended winter...

The Weather Channel's May-July Outlook - weather.com
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Old 04-24-2012, 04:17 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,363,775 times
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Now that our “massive noreaster” is over we can turn are attention to real weather news:

They just updated NWS Central Park – it currently stands 55.8 F (+4.0 F). So this is it…NWS Central Park now has only 7 more updates into its April 2012 monthly data to see if it can hang on and join Feb and March 2012 as inside the top ten warmest since 1869. Here is how the list stands today…April 2012 is in 6th place at Central Park( a side note I didn’t forget about NWS Bridgeport - the record since 1948 seems to be 56.7 F. Currently NWS Bridgeport stands at 53.9 F (+5.7 F). My guess this is also inside the top ten warmest Aprils in the last 60 years. NWS Bridgeport, has been quite mild this month – only 3 nights fell below 40 F - and there has been no frost since late March).
.
Warmest Aprils at Central Park since 1869:
57.9 2010
56.9 1941
56.2 1981
56.1 2002/1921
55.9 1969
55.8 2012
55.7 1991/2006
55.6 1994/1945
55.5 1985
55.2 1974
55.1 1910/2005

So we’ll see how this all plays out in the next 7 days.
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Old 04-24-2012, 04:19 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,363,775 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
Weather Channel summer outlook released:

- Slightly above normal locally
- Many areas (including Texas, remember the 100-deg streak last year?) excepted to be slightly BELOW normal.
- Only area well above normal the upper Midwest

Who knows? Accuweather predicted a record snowy winter for the Midwest this just ended winter...

The Weather Channel's May-July Outlook - weather.com
Yes, I saw this too. Here is the map:



Poor Gil Simons...he just can't catch a break -
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Old 04-24-2012, 04:31 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Looking Ahead: Slightly Cooler than normal temps for this week. Return to normal slightly above normal next week.

Couple of shortwaves coming through so it will keep things mostly cloudy this week with showers here and there.

Latest GFS Precip forecasts. We're in the green for next 10 days (under an inch) but things look wet in long range.

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Old 04-24-2012, 04:43 AM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,363,775 times
Reputation: 2157
This was just updated last night and takes us to May 7th; Temps look to still stay above normal in the eastern USA right into mid May. A few showers this week, then the sun is back by Wed with temps in the 60's F. If the below is correct, then May could pick up where April left off:



Only below normal in up in PNW. Is the USA heading into a torrid summer pattern? We don't know, but perhaps Gil Simons should take that trip to Alaska this summer - lol.
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:06 AM
 
Location: Indiana Uplands
26,407 posts, read 46,581,861 times
Reputation: 19554
Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
This was just updated last night and takes us to May 7th; Temps look to still stay above normal in the eastern USA right into mid May. A few showers this week, then the sun is back by Wed with temps in the 60's F. If the below is correct, then May could pick up where April left off:



Only below normal in up in PNW. Is the USA heading into a torrid summer pattern? We don't know, but perhaps Gil Simons should take that trip to Alaska this summer - lol.
I think I need to move much higher up in elevation. Latitude isn't enough these days...
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Old 04-24-2012, 10:22 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Feels chilly outside.

I'll say it till I'm blue in the face. The pattern had changed End of March. You cant deny the fact that constantly being so much warmer and whats happening now being near normal is not a pattern change.

I mean just look at March when temps were in 60s and 70s constantly 10+ above normal. Now we get a blip and its gone. Mostly 50s and 60s Which is Normal

I'll keep this updated until the pattern changes the other way.

Before March 25th the near Normals were the blip. Now the Troughs are settling in longer in the East.

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