[wavehunter007]

There is no escaping the drought situation I guess:

As of today… 29 NWS stations rank in the top 20 for driest year-to-date and 6 rank as their driest. Connecticut, parts of NJ, and NYC are right in the cente, as are parts of Delaware and Mass. Parts of eastern Long Island and southeast Connecticut seem to be the near the driest of all:

[Mike 75]

This may be a dumb question, but why is precipitation measured on a calendar year, and not on a rolling 12 month basis? I see all these numbers about how we have a rainfall defecit for the year, but that's not the case if you look at the past 12 months.

[nei]

Originally Posted by Mike 75

This may be a dumb question, but why is precipitation measured on a calendar year, and not on a rolling 12 month basis? I see all these numbers about how we have a rainfall defecit for the year, but that's not the case if you look at the past 12 months.

Good point.

If we had a normal amount of precipitation this calendar year, we would have had oversaturated soils and high river levels. While we may be in drought conditions, the previous years rainfall helped a lot at preventing it from being more severe.

While, it might be hard for us to get back to normal precipitation levels; we don't really need to and a bit below average is a minor issue compared to drought levels. So if this rainstorm and more in the future keep aren't enough to get us back to normal levels that could be OK as long as we don't have any long rainless periods.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by nei

HPC's track has shifted to the east:

Hopefully 1'' of precip isn't too much to ask for in NH. The GFS has shifted east for sure, I will check the NAM at 11:30AM.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Mike 75

This may be a dumb question, but why is precipitation measured on a calendar year, and not on a rolling 12 month basis? I see all these numbers about how we have a rainfall defecit for the year, but that's not the case if you look at the past 12 months.

Great question!
Here's the departure from normal for a 12 month period. Notice Hartford into MA is still 12"+ above normal! No drought there.

I think they base it off current monthly numbers only as opposed to accruing. So the more weeks and months will less than normal, the more you'll see drought status. As it rains it slowly disapears.

but yes, thanks for bringing this up. Maybe too much hype about the drought lately when we're all still above normal for past 12 months. It's probably why I've mowed my lawn 4 times already. Its very green and I contribute it to an extremely wet year last year..

Also to add.. No snow pack over winter cause the ground to dry up more than usual but they dont factor that into the "drought status"



Edit: then again, between ground absorption and evaporation last years precip is mostly gone.

[nei]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Great question!
Here's the departure from normal for a 12 month period. Notice Hartford into MA is still 12"+ above normal! No drought there.

I think they base it off current monthly numbers only as opposed to accruing. So the more weeks and months will less than normal, the more you'll see drought status. As it rains it slowly disapears.

Eh. Well we've had fire weather watches / red flag warning for the last month and a half, so short term means something.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by nei

Eh. Well we've had fire weather watches / red flag warning for the last month and a half, so short term means something.

See my edit at the bottom.

[GraniteStater]

GFS has shifted slightly west with the storm track, temps look closer to average over the next 1-2 weeks. The negative NAO and AO seem to signal a pattern shift along with the PNA flipping to positive. If one examines the model runs you can see more ridging overall in the West and Pacific with weaker storms and more of a downstream trough.

[Cambium]

12z Runs are out.

NAM - slightly East but its in its long range.
GFS - Moved slightly west giving us some rain from it now.

NOGAPS - See 1st pic
Euro - See 2 pics after. Standing firm with its bomb and deserves a and a . 10-15" of snow for NY, PA, Great Lakes area.

So we have 2 models with ton of rain. 2 models with a little rain.

NOGAPS- Rain for us, Snow for Great Lakes and backend snow down to coast.



EURO - Coastal Bomb. Ton of rain. Blizzard for Great lakes and Central NY/PA.

[Cambium]

So again... my question is..What is the Euro seeing??? Apparently something is making it turn into a monster coastal storm and a heavy snow event northwest of us.

Man that trough digs, phases, and storm blows up. NorthWest winds will chill the air. That setup looks like December to me.

the 850 line is just west of the PA/NJ line...surface temps during the whole thing range from 35-37 at the beginning to 31-34 during the meat of the storm for them