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Old 12-15-2011, 03:06 AM
 
1,320 posts, read 3,702,507 times
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I hope those of you looking for a white Christmas get one! Temperatures trends still look a bit mild to support that, but things could change. The big downside of course is snow that is poorley timed,( maybe early on the 23 or 24th) can cause lots of travel problems and could prevent some from even being able to get home. We have seen those sad interviews of people in tears at the airport stranded for the holiday or those stuck on some expressway for hours and hours.
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Old 12-15-2011, 09:36 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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December 21, 2011 Storm Update:

My thinking: Rain! I think its going to cut into the great lakes. We could see snowshowers right before the Rain.

December 24, 2011 Storm Update:
Too many differences still. Stay tuned.

Temps way above average today and tomorrow then dropping to Normal(upper 30s and low 40s) again. If next weeks storm cuts into Great Lakes expect 50s again!
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Old 12-15-2011, 09:48 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
December 21, 2011 Storm Update:

My thinking: Rain! I think its going to cut into the great lakes. We could see snowshowers right before the Rain.

December 24, 2011 Storm Update:
Too many differences still. Stay tuned.

Temps way above average today and tomorrow then dropping to Normal(upper 30s and low 40s) again. If next weeks storm cuts into Great Lakes expect 50s again!


Yessss!!

50's and rain will be perfect instrument flying weather (IFR) with an adequately high freezing level to not have to worry about picking up ice!
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Old 12-15-2011, 09:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by papafox View Post
Yessss!!

50's and rain will be perfect instrument flying weather (IFR) with an adequately high freezing level to not have to worry about picking up ice!
I'm curious What level do you guys usually look at for flying? 850mb or 700? Im sure you look at winds at the 850 level too.

BTW folks.... Euro Monthlies came out and show little blocking up north which means this temp pattern will stay until early January. Do you believe it? I always take any long range thoughts with some salt. lol

But I do believe we stay in this flip flop pattern still until Mid January. Doesnt mean storms wont brew and it doesnt mean we cant get snow showers in between. Timing has to be perfect for it though.
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Old 12-15-2011, 12:50 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Bridgeport CT: 1975 holds the record high temp for todays date at 59 degrees.
I think they peaked at 55 today. Spring time out there. Enjoy it.
One more day then cold front comes through. It should be as cold as last time with lows in the 20s again.

Ridge is very apparent in East. Wow.

No snow on ground anywhere! Was reading something that said Syracuse, NY this time last year had 50"...this year they have .07"! The least amount they ever got since 1950 was 5" in December. Anywhere you look there's just no snow Except for the West.

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Old 12-15-2011, 01:41 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
11,298 posts, read 18,888,129 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post

No snow on ground anywhere! Was reading something that said Syracuse, NY this time last year had 50"...this year they have .07"! The least amount they ever got since 1950 was 5" in December. Anywhere you look there's just no snow Except for the West.
I think it's 0.7", the NWS only measures snow in 10ths of an inch, not 100ths like they do with rain.

But to put in perspective, Buffalo had their first MEASURABLE snowfall of the season on Dec. 2, it missed the all time record for "latest first" by ONE DAY (ironicaly set back in 1899).
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Old 12-15-2011, 03:05 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I'm curious What level do you guys usually look at for flying? 850mb or 700? Im sure you look at winds at the 850 level too.

BTW folks.... Euro Monthlies came out and show little blocking up north which means this temp pattern will stay until early January. Do you believe it? I always take any long range thoughts with some salt. lol

But I do believe we stay in this flip flop pattern still until Mid January. Doesnt mean storms wont brew and it doesnt mean we cant get snow showers in between. Timing has to be perfect for it though.

This time of year I primarily look at the 850mb temps as this usually corresponds to the common altitudes I fly at---but this is usually 5 days out or more.

Then as time draws near (within 24 or even 12 hrs) I go to http://www.aviationweather.gov/adds/ and get a full weather briefing which show METAR's, TAF's, freezing level, winds and temperatures at 3000' foot increments.

The one tool I love the most for flight planning is the skew-t diagram http://www-frd.fsl.noaa.gov/mab/soundings/java/ as I'm sure you know you get a nice slice of the entire atmosphere with in. In the winter I primarily look at the freezing level of course and in the summer when I most take note of is CAPE values, LFC, lifting index, etc.

I'm one of the few pilots who loves flying in instrument weather more than visually. At the major airports, you are allowed to fly totally on instruments (you match up 2 needles on the instrument panel) down as low as 200 ft and only at that point must you have visual contact to legally land. If you don't at that altitude (VERY RARE) you must go around and divert to an airport with a higher ceiling (which is why you carry more than the normal fuel reserve flying into a large area of instrument weather (less than 1000' ceilings and or 3 miles vis).
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Old 12-15-2011, 03:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Here's a term not used much... "Ocean Effect Snow Showers"

Norlun trough setup this weekend will bring snow showers here and there...Could see some minor grassy accumulations..nothing to talk about but will get us into the holiday spirit.

But more interestingly is this text from NWS in Boston. Something I always talked about how the warm ocean can help create more moisture and snow if the cold air is there.

Quote:
HOWEVER EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING WITHIN THE BROAD MEAN TROUGH COULD EXTEND AN INVERTED/NORLUN TYPE TROUGH NORTHWEST FROM AN OCEAN LOW WELL OFFSHORE. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO COMBINE WITH MOIST CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT TO YIELD SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES. SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS CAPE COD AS MOIST N-NE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN ACROSS THIS AREA PROMOTES OCEAN-EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS SETUP CLOSELY AS RELATIVELY WARM OCEAN WATERS /MU40S/ COMBINE WITH COLD TEMPS ALOFT /-12C AT 850/ TO YIELD LARGE MOISTURE AND HEAT FLUXES.
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Old 12-15-2011, 07:26 PM
 
Location: Central, CT
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Another reason to love the ocean!!!
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Old 12-16-2011, 04:25 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Default Wind Advisory

Winds are gusting to 35mph.

Wind Advisory out for Hartford, Tolland, Windham counties. (not sure why not the rest)

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

* HAZARDS...STRONG WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TIMING...STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL OCCUR AROUND 8 AM FRIDAY...
THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BRANCHES
RESULTING IN ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.
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