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Old 12-05-2011, 11:39 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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December 8, 2011 Snowstorm Update::

New model I was waiting for prints a moderate snowstorm from D.C to Boston.

Will have details as soon as I have a chance. Wednesday night into Thursday. Not locked in yet folks...still need all models to agree... So far only 4 of the 7 agree.
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Old 12-05-2011, 12:56 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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December 8, 2011 Snowstorm Update
Time Frame - Wednesday Night- Thursday Morning

This is the point where you get to seperate the hypers from the conservatives. Henry M. (who everyone thought hypes up storms) says 1-3" in general.

My thinking is... Its not an inland storm. North of I-84 would stay all snow but much less amounts T-2"..

Coastal Areas wont be all snow but would have up to an inch liquid. Snow ratios wont be as low as October(not as heavy) but they wont be the normal 10:1 either.

So at 7:1 snow ratios I'm thinking conservatively saying 2-5" for coastal areas. 4-5" would be in tight spots where heavy bands setup.

So pretty much Litchfield, Hartford, & Tolland would see a Trace to a couple inches but Fairfield, New Haven, Middlesex and new London would see generally 2-5".

This is the latest Euro. Look familiar?



There's the storm sitting off the coast Thursday morning.

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Old 12-05-2011, 02:03 PM
 
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Weather channel and Acuuweather showing 47 for Wed with rain and 46 for Thursday with sun.......I'm not holding my breath..........I'm willing to bet my car there will be no snow.
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Old 12-05-2011, 02:50 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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New NAM model comes in more stronger... I am having a hard time believing it. Shows over half foot for many areas....



Now is the time when we look at precip amounts and exact track.
Temps mean nothing in the world of extremes now.

It was 85 2 weeks before the October Snowstorm. It was low 40s during it.

All snow for Windsor, CT... That 1.22 you see there = 10-14" of snow. I do not believe this....yet.

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Old 12-05-2011, 04:35 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Default Snowstorm December 8, 2011

December 8, 2011 Snowstorm Update::
Watches should be issued tomorrow(12/6).

Hard to believe still but.... from upton. Gets technical so let me sum it up. They are concerned with what the NAM model showed because it crashes the surface temps due to dynamic cooling which worked well in the October Snowstorm but this one is not as strong. They are going for a blend of 2 models. Snow for Interior CT including the coast Rain/mix for NYC. Upton usually conservative. They also note because of the Northerly flow, warm maritime air wont wouldnt get involved.

National Weather Service Text Product Display

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THEN PRECIP SHOULD RAPIDLY SPREAD NE LATE WED NIGHT AS THE SFC LOW MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE AREA FALLS UNDERNEATH BANDING IN ITS NW QUADRANT. NO STRONG HIGH WILL BE IN PLACE TO THE NORTH...BUT NRLY FLOW AS THE LOW MOVES OFF THE COAST WILL AT LEAST KEEP WARMER MARITIME AIR FROM GETTING INVOLVED.

NAM VERY AGGRESSIVELY CRASHES SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION VIA DYNAMIC COOLING TO ALLOW FOR A CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE BOARD. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT THIS SINCE THIS ACTUALLY WORKED OUT QUITE WELL IN THE HISTORIC 10/29 SNOWSTORM...BUT SINCE THIS IS A 5TH/6TH PERIOD EVENT AND FCST IS STILL LESS THAN CERTAIN ESPECIALLY ON THE MESOSCALE LEVEL...

PLAYED IT MORE CONSERVATIVELY BY BLENDING NAM 2M
SFC TEMPS WITH MET MOS GUIDANCE...WHICH SUGGESTS PRIMARILY WET SNOW FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE INTERIOR INCLUDING THE CT COAST...AND RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO SNOW FOR NYC METRO AND AREAS JUST NORTH/WEST AND LONG ISLAND.

IT IS STILL A LITTLE TOO EARLY TO GET SPECIFIC ABOUT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS...BUT A STRIP OF ADVY-LEVEL SNOWFALL LOOKS POSSIBLE FOR THE INTERIOR...WITH LOWER AMTS FOR NYC METRO AND LITTLE IF ANY ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF LONG ISLAND. STAY TUNED HERE
AS SHIFTS IN STORM TRACK/FORWARD MOTION/INTENSITY COULD HAVE
IMPORTANT IMPACTS ON THE FCST DETAILS.
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN THU-FRI IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER.
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Old 12-05-2011, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN THU-FRI IN THE WAKE OF THIS LOW...WITH TEMPS A FEW DEG BELOW AVERAGE BUT STILL TYPICAL OF EARLY DECEMBER.
A site on Facebook I have "fanned/liked" called "Northeast Weather" is "geeking out" about a 2nd, bigger storm Thursday night into Friday (as in 4"+ in the populated areas). Know anything about that?

I say that because Accuweather and the NWS are still saying Wed night into Thursday morn and talking mostly rain/snow mix with small accumulations (though NWS also says another rain/snow mix Fri night into Sat with 1-3" inland CT).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post

It was 85 2 weeks before the October Snowstorm. It was low 40s during it.
My wife, while she grew up in the Tri-State area, went to college in the Rochester, NY area and loves to tell me tales of how it went from almost 90 to almost foot of snow on a couple of Aprils in the mid 1980s.......
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Old 12-05-2011, 05:49 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
A site on Facebook I have "fanned/liked" called "Northeast Weather" is "geeking out" about a 2nd, bigger storm Thursday night into Friday (as in 4"+ in the populated areas). Know anything about that?

I say that because Accuweather and the NWS are still saying Wed night into Thursday morn and talking mostly rain/snow mix with small accumulations (though NWS also says another rain/snow mix Fri night into Sat with 1-3" inland CT).
The low that will impact us with a rain/snow mix on Wed night/Thur is 2000 miles west of the East Coast at this moment (in SW Colorado). The models always pull this with lows beyond 48 hours – offering a bunch of different solutions. I think locally will see a light precip (rain/some wet flakes), but that’s about it. By the weekend skies should clear and it will be sunny and seasonable.

In the longer term... I see no signs of the AO going negative for at least the three weeks. There remains lower than normal atmospheric pressure over the Arctic, this should keep the winds westerly at the upper levels over Canada - so little truly cold air should make it down into the USA in the next several weeks. This does not mean it cannot get cold with some light snow...but most likely any cold that does come in will be in and out fairly quickly and snow will be light and brief.
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Old 12-05-2011, 06:14 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 7 Wishes View Post
A site on Facebook I have "fanned/liked" called "Northeast Weather" is "geeking out" about a 2nd, bigger storm Thursday night into Friday (as in 4"+ in the populated areas). Know anything about that?

I say that because Accuweather and the NWS are still saying Wed night into Thursday morn and talking mostly rain/snow mix with small accumulations (though NWS also says another rain/snow mix Fri night into Sat with 1-3" inland CT).


My wife, while she grew up in the Tri-State area, went to college in the Rochester, NY area and loves to tell me tales of how it went from almost 90 to almost foot of snow on a couple of Aprils in the mid 1980s.......
I dont see anything significant for Friday... If anything its from a clipper from Great Lakes but I dont see anything for the 10th... Maybe they got the dates wrong? Theres no second storm...actualy the second storm is this one for Wednesday night. The first weak low will pass us tomorrow as rain.

Its always nice to see all different posts and opinions but double check who owns the page before putting faith into what they say.

Interesting about the Rochester temp.
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Old 12-06-2011, 03:54 AM
 
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
I dont see anything significant for Friday... If anything its from a clipper from Great Lakes but I dont see anything for the 10th... Maybe they got the dates wrong? Theres no second storm...actualy the second storm is this one for Wednesday night. The first weak low will pass us tomorrow as rain.

Its always nice to see all different posts and opinions but double check who owns the page before putting faith into what they say.

Interesting about the Rochester temp.
NWS is showing very light rain/snow mix for the 10th (Saturday) and snow showers for most of Westchester and Fairfield counties, if you go on OKX you'll see what I'm talking about, says "little or no accumulation" tough. I'm thinking as to Thurs. night into Fri. Northeast Weather got the dates mixed up.....
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Old 12-06-2011, 04:54 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,511 posts, read 75,277,900 times
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Default Winter Storm

December 8, 2011 Winter Storm Update

Im Still gathering some data but here's some key points:

A. I changed the name to Winter storm from snowstorm as some places will get rain then a mix then a change over.

B. Couple overnight models had surface temps too warm for snow.

C. Storm will happen but nothing to get crazy about.

D. I was wrong about it not being an interior storm.....apparently models have shifted west and stronger with the storm so Interior CT could see half foot and the coast much less...This is similar to the October storm without as much moisture or intensity....but that can change.

E. More Coffee please.
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