[7 Wishes]

If it means anything Accuweather's 15 day forecast (yeah they do long range that far out) shows it all being only rain at least for the coastal areas and mostly 50s this week through Monday and doesn't show any major below normal temperatures (mostly 30s into 40s).

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

If it means anything Accuweather's 15 day forecast (yeah they do long range that far out) shows it all being only rain at least for the coastal areas and mostly 50s this week through Monday and doesn't show any major below normal temperatures (mostly 30s into 40s).

Yeah, I still wonder what they go by. There's only 2 models in the world that go that far out.. Euro and GFS... The GFS goes out 2 weeks. Euro 10 days. Maybe a blend of the 2? because GFS shows low 40s for highs, Euro shows 50s for next weeks storm.

The accuweather app is cool on the Androids. Its been flipping from Rain to Ice to snow to Rain past week for next weeks storm. LOL Cool graphics too.

[Cambium]

December 7, 2011 Storm Update:

Its insane why the models cant just agree or even be close...

National Weather Service Text Product Display

There's a nice whole discussion from NWS about this storm... Click the link to read entire...I hate to cut it short because its good info so I bolded the gist of it. They are going with the GFS (which is a coastal storm and colder) and mention some snow..7 days away now.

THE MODELS WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE WEEKEND.
HOWEVER...DIFFERENCES BEGIN TO APPEAR BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRAVERSE SOUTHERN CANADA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MON...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND. THIS FRONT SHOULD KEEP PRECIP TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA. BY
MID-DAY MON...

THE GFS BUILDS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UP OVER THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY...AND EXPANDING IT FARTHER NORTH OVER THE
NORTHEAST BY TUE.

THE ECMWF IS SLOWER IN BUILDING THE NEXT LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WAITING TIL TUE TO BUILD IT OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN US AND EVENTUALLY HAVING IT PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY.

WHILE THE GFS HAS ONE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST MOVE INTO CANADA...AND THE SECOND LOW MOVING UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE ECMWF HAS THE TWO LOWS AS WELL. HOWEVER...IT
CONNECTS THE TWO AND FORMS A STRONGER LOW MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.

CURRENT THINKING SIDED MORE WITH THE GFS...THOUGH KNOWING THE GFS TENDS TO BRING SYSTEMS THROUGH QUICKER THAN NORMAL...THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND WIND SHIFT MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED A DAY. HAVE GONE WITH CHC POPS FOR NOW MON NIGHT THROUGH WED WITH THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. THE GFS BRINGS A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WED...SO KEPT POPS IN THE FORECAST INTO WED NIGHT.

TEMPS FOR THE COMING WEEK WERE LARGELY DEPENDENT UPON THE TIMING OF THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW. CHOSE TO SIDE WITH A HPC/MOS MIX. WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW EARLY ON...SHOULD SEE TEMPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON AND NEAR NORMAL TUE AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO SHIFT.

USING GFS GUIDANCE...925 TEMPS DROP DOWN TO -3C BY WED...KEEPING HIGH TEMPS NEAR 40...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S BOTH TUE/WED NIGHTS. WHILE THE METRO AREAS...AS WELL AS LONG ISLAND SHOULD ONLY SEE LIGHT RAIN PRECIP...THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME SNOW TO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN OVER THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF CT WHERE TEMPS DROP DOWN CLOSE TO AND BELOW FREEZING.

THE MAIN FACTOR IN THIS WILL BE THE TIMING TO THE LOW AND IF THE PRECIP IS STILL ON GOING AS THE TEMPS DROP. HAVE INCLUDED THE CHC FOR LIGHT SNOW WED AND WED NIGHT...BUT THIS MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AT A LATER TIME DEPENDING ON WHEN THE LOW MOVES THROUGH.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

If it means anything Accuweather's 15 day forecast (yeah they do long range that far out) shows it all being only rain at least for the coastal areas and mostly 50s this week through Monday and doesn't show any major below normal temperatures (mostly 30s into 40s).

That’s pretty much my read as well:

That negative PNA is indicative of toughing somewhere near the West, the trough axis will largely be over the Rockies and not along/off the West Coast like it was the last two weeks. This means, by next week the cold air will be further east than it has been recently ....but a far cry from anywhere near the East Coast.

The upper level ridge will be pushed further off the East Coast after the middle of next week. So after December 6th or so, we in the east will not be as persistently above normal as we were all of November...yet - there is zero chance that any truly cold air or below normal temps will settle over the East Coast. For the most part, we will see last months pattern...only pushed to the east and weaker. So some degree of troughing in the West and no downstream blocking in the Atlantic.

This all means the system that passes by the middle next week will be all rain Otherwise - expect rather dry, normal or slightly above normal temps, with lows in the lower 30’s and highs near 50 F or so... in the next three weeks at least.

Cheers.

[Cambium]

December 7, 2011 Storm Update:

Im Not getting a good feeling for any snow now. Just not seeing what I want to see to call it.

So going with just another Soggy 2 day rain event Tuesday/Wednesday.

Then again on the 12th.

ENJOY THE WEEKEND! ANOTHER DRY ABOVE NORMAL WEEKEND!

Just planted my 10 little trees.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

December 7, 2011 Storm Update:

Im Not getting a good feeling for any snow now. Just not seeing what I want to see to call it.

So going with just another Soggy 2 day rain event Tuesday/Wednesday.

Then again on the 12th.

ENJOY THE WEEKEND! ANOTHER DRY ABOVE NORMAL WEEKEND!

Just planted my 10 little trees.

It'll come soon enough..you are so unbiased Cambium, you just report the weather in all conditions. You are here to report the weather whether its what you want or not. It gives you CREDIBILITY. Not something everyone here has.. nice job.

[wavehunter007]

A report about why this November was so WARM in the Tri-State Middle Atlantic...


Just How Mild Was November in the Northeast? (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/just-how-mild-was-november-in-1/58490 - broken link)


..

[jp03]

[quote=wavehunter007;21941525]A report about why this November was so WARM in the Tri-State Middle Atlantic...


Just How Mild Was November in the Northeast? (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/just-how-mild-was-november-in-1/58490 - broken link)


..[/Q


It was a great month...loved it!

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

That’s pretty much my read as well:

That negative PNA is indicative of toughing somewhere near the West, the trough axis will largely be over the Rockies and not along/off the West Coast like it was the last two weeks. This means, by next week the cold air will be further east than it has been recently ....but a far cry from anywhere near the East Coast.

The upper level ridge will be pushed further off the East Coast after the middle of next week. So after December 6th or so, we in the east will not be as persistently above normal as we were all of November...yet - there is zero chance that any truly cold air or below normal temps will settle over the East Coast. For the most part, we will see last months pattern...only pushed to the east and weaker. So some degree of troughing in the West and no downstream blocking in the Atlantic.

This all means the system that passes by the middle next week will be all rain Otherwise - expect rather dry, normal or slightly above normal temps, with lows in the lower 30’s and highs near 50 F or so... in the next three weeks at least.

Cheers.

HMM, you said this in October too.....

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

HMM, you said this in October too.....

I was thinking back then (in Oct) that Western Canada was so warm than the first part of winter (maybe December ) would be a bit warmer than normal, and there would be some light snowfall locally.

Now, looking at the MASSIVE ridge of the southeast Coast, the trough setting up just to the west of the Rockies, the positive NAO, and the subtropical jet not even in the picture...I'm going to make a really bold winter forecast:


1) NO SNOW at all till the last days of December 2011. Green XMASS for the Tri-State.

2) January 2012 will see less than 25% of normal snowfall across the Tri-State area.

3) December 2011 will continue the above normal temps at most NWS stations east of 95 West longitude...and esp along the East Coast. NWS BDL, NYC, Bridgeport, Trenton, Atlantic City...etc will have monthly mean temps 1 to 3 F above normal.

4) January 2012 will have monthly mean temps 2 - 5 F above normal at the same above stations.


Once we get to late Jan I'll make my late winter early spring forecast.