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Old 12-21-2011, 12:59 PM
 
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In cambium we trust.....
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Old 12-21-2011, 03:09 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Check this out guys... This is what makes Weather in CT so interesting.

This map is at the height of the storm Friday morning from latest data. Its showing the temperatures at 5000 feet which is crucial for determining frozen precip. (surface dependent)

The 32 degree line cuts right through Connecticut.
I see this happen many many times especially with coastal storms. This pretty much implys track of storm. With that said , a shift of the storm East and that line drops a bit south more.

My thinking still stands for Friday.




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Old 12-21-2011, 03:42 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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I think there will be some mixing before dawn on Friday morning in central and northern Connecticut – but everything should turn to rain fast. It is a bit confusing, because even the NWS shows some sleet mixing with the rain on late on Thursday night along the Connecticut coast, then rain on Friday. Yet, strangley, the forecast for inland areas seem to make no mention of any snow or even sleet on Thursday night, but shows a mix of rain/snow on Friday, changing to rain:

NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.3°N 72.95°W

Thursday Night: Rain before 4am, then rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 35. North wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday: Showers likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. North wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

NWS Taunton, MA
Point Forecast: Hartford CT
41.77°N 72.7°W

Thursday Night: Rain, mainly after 2am. Low around 35. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Rain and snow likely before 9am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Here is the NWS current discussion:

SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES HEADS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND THEN APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST WEIGHS MORE HEAVILY ON THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...WHICH SHOW A 1008/1009 MB LOW EMERGING ON THE OCEAN
JUST EAST OF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM AN OUTLIER
AS IT TRACKS MORE FURTHER SE AND IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. AFTER A
DRY THURSDAY...POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
BL EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT A WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR
PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR
CONNECTICUT. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING ENOUGH RAIN TO MIX IN THAT
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH
...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO WATCH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.

My guess is that there window for any sleet/mix will be short lived as the low pulls rapidly out to sea on Friday morning. I guess we'll see.
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Old 12-21-2011, 04:06 PM
 
10,007 posts, read 11,161,435 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
I think there will be some mixing before dawn on Friday morning in central and northern Connecticut – but everything should turn to rain fast. It is a bit confusing, because even the NWS shows some sleet mixing with the rain on late on Thursday night along the Connecticut coast, then rain on Friday. Yet, strangley, the forecast for inland areas seem to make no mention of any snow or even sleet on Thursday night, but shows a mix of rain/snow on Friday, changing to rain:

NWS New York, NY
Point Forecast: New Haven CT
41.3°N 72.95°W

Thursday Night: Rain before 4am, then rain, possibly mixed with sleet. Low around 35. North wind between 5 and 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.

Friday: Showers likely, mainly before 9am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 46. North wind between 7 and 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible.

NWS Taunton, MA
Point Forecast: Hartford CT
41.77°N 72.7°W

Thursday Night: Rain, mainly after 2am. Low around 35. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New rainfall amounts between a quarter and half of an inch possible.

Friday: Rain and snow likely before 9am, then a chance of rain. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43. North wind around 7 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Here is the NWS current discussion:

SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES HEADS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
APPALACHIANS THURSDAY AND THEN APPROACHES THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. FORECAST WEIGHS MORE HEAVILY ON THE 12Z
GFS/ECMWF...WHICH SHOW A 1008/1009 MB LOW EMERGING ON THE OCEAN
JUST EAST OF THE NJ COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. NAM AN OUTLIER
AS IT TRACKS MORE FURTHER SE AND IS NOT QUITE AS STRONG. AFTER A
DRY THURSDAY...POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
BL EXPECTED TO BE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN OVER MOST OF THE
REGION...BUT A WINTRY MIX CONTINUES TO BE A STRONG POSSIBILITY FOR
PORTIONS OF NE NJ...THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND INTERIOR
CONNECTICUT. AT THIS POINT...EXPECTING ENOUGH RAIN TO MIX IN THAT
ANY ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE LESS THAN AN INCH
...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO HAVE TO WATCH ADDITIONAL MODEL RUNS.

My guess is that there window for any sleet/mix will be short lived as the low pulls rapidly out to sea on Friday morning. I guess we'll see.
It seems NWS's forecast discussions are very valuable ...the actual forecast..not so much.

Love this one..for next Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.


Haha...what does that mean anyway?
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Old 12-21-2011, 04:27 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
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Guys be careful looking at the forecasts, there's politics involved.

This is what they had for Litchfield 4 days before the October Snowstorm. 50 degrees and a 30% chance of rain and snow.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Saturday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 49. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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Old 12-21-2011, 06:31 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
4,429 posts, read 10,363,775 times
Reputation: 2157
Quote:
Originally Posted by jp03 View Post
It seems NWS's forecast discussions are very valuable ...the actual forecast..not so much.

Love this one..for next Wednesday

Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 43. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Haha...what does that mean anyway?

Agreed.

Even NWS seems to talk out of both sides of their mouth in many forecasts. However, to be fair (to them) these two systems (the early AM Friday storm and the weekend storm that might have been) were tough to pin down. Although today they show sunny and dry for the 24th and 25 th… just 12 hrs ago NWS Upton was saying snow. So it was a back and forth forecast from the start.
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Old 12-21-2011, 07:40 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Stepping outside our area for a sec... Thunderstorms about to roll through NJ/NY. LOL.

Special statement issued for Thunder, 45mph wind gusts and heavy rain maybe some lightning. Crazy stuff.

One more day of 50s. Anyone know if we broke any records either daily or monthly??




Last edited by Cambium; 12-21-2011 at 08:02 PM..
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Old 12-21-2011, 08:13 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Default December 21, 2011 Storm

Actually now looking at it, the line seems to be surviving and might enter CT. Hail fell in Wappinger Falls with thunder and winds gusted to 45mph.

This is surreal.

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Old 12-21-2011, 08:39 PM
 
Location: Republic of New England
633 posts, read 1,644,961 times
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I dont remember any years being strange weather as 2011... wonder how strange 2012 would be LOOOL
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Old 12-21-2011, 09:37 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,518 posts, read 75,307,397 times
Reputation: 16619
Reports of thunder and lightning in interior CT.

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MIDDLESEX COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT... SUFFOLK COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... NEW LONDON COUNTY IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...

* UNTIL 1215 AM EST...

* AT 1121 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.
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