[Cambium]

Originally Posted by rajmelk

Oh no...it's teasing/tantalizing again...long range NWS forecast showing snow showers & cold for Hartford over the weekend?

LOL!!

Well, aside from the non event tomorrow night with an inch of snow, the weekend now shows some snow also...probably another non event.

All models except the GFS agree on some snow this weekend. 1-2" again.

These are 6 different models. Also note: All agree on a trough in East and it doesnt move out as fast as it has been all winter.

Temps will be below normal this weekend. A rare event. LOL

[Cambium]

Upton said it best yesterday. Its the story of this winter with the models.

"FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE IN HOW COLD I WENT DUE TO THE HISTORY THIS WINTER OF COLD BEING ADVERTISED, THEN NOT MATERIALIZING. "

This morning:

"EURO SHOWING POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC FRONT.

WILL STILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT GIVEN PRIOR MODEL VERIFICATION OF PREVIOUS COLD AIR INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER SEASON. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK."

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Upton said it best yesterday. Its the story of this winter with the models.

"FROM SATURDAY-MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. FOR NOW HAVE BEEN CONSERVATIVE IN HOW COLD I WENT DUE TO THE HISTORY THIS WINTER OF COLD BEING ADVERTISED, THEN NOT MATERIALIZING. "

This morning:

"EURO SHOWING POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS LATER IN THE WEEKEND ASSOCIATED WITH ARCTIC FRONT.

WILL STILL LEAN TOWARD PERSISTENCE WITH REGARD TO TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT GIVEN PRIOR MODEL VERIFICATION OF PREVIOUS COLD AIR INTRUSIONS THIS WINTER SEASON. HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT TEMPS BELOW NORMAL LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK."

Ironically they are still listing the weekend as sunny though (but the do have cold temps (at least compared to what we've had), like upper 20s to low 30s for highs and upper teens to low 20s for lows.

They're also seemingly showing tomorrow's non-event as a 30% chance, and seems to be a late afternoon into the night event.

[wavehunter007]

This is the time of year when we really get to see the forces of the North (cold temps/dry air)….battle the forces of the Sorth (warm temps/moisture).

Although the arctic fronts are slowly losing power, but they can still be quite cold, and if they can rush south from Canada down into the USA fast enough, we can still get a cold blast or two. On the other hand – the forces of the South, with rising daily mean temps, the building solar angle, and the subtropical high now building off the Florida coast, warm air advection can overspread us with almost spring like warmth.

The final battle for winter 2011/2012 is upon us...

[htfdcolt]

Not much of a battle so far...the warm/mild air's been clearly dominant.

[7 Wishes]

Weather Channel and Accuweather showing flurries-to-a-dusting for Sat/Sat night now. NWS still saying "mostly cloudy".

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by rajmelk

Not much of a battle so far...the warm/mild air's been clearly dominant.

Agree. No battle at all this winter. I can recall maybe 2 times for a couple days its been cold. The Polar Vortex has stayed in Northern Canada so far.

My new post in Vermont shows the next Cold snap to drop down. Latest Euro says it wont get past single digits in Vermont Monday & Tuesday.

https://www.city-data.com/forum/22882657-post308.html

[Cambium]

Brett Andersons Blog today in regards to weekend. Interesting. I should trust experience over myself but its hard to consider it.

Maybe Boston or even Cape Cod, RI might see something?

"I expect to see a storm to intensify somewhere just east or southeast of Cape Cod, Mass. Even though the American models are not too excited about this, I have seen this type of situation lead to a rapidly intensifying storm over the Gulf Stream which can lead to a sudden snowstorm over eastern New England and extending into the western Maritimes. I am confident there will be an intensifying storm; it's just the location of where it develops that's still way up in the air"

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Cold and Some Snow Headed for the East (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/cold-and-some-snow-headed-for-the-east/61298 - broken link)

[Cambium]

It's all going to be about where the Low Develops Folks. The system in California has taken a south track, odds are in favor now of a storm but all ingrediants need to come together.

Interesting. We all know News12 as being extremely conservative and robotic like (no extra enthusiasm about anything). But Significant?

Joe Rao from News12 Westchester.

"Forecasting problems for the upcoming weekend concerning the ultimate
interaction between a storm trying to move up along the Eastern
Seaboard and a shot of colder air pouring south from central Canada.
Various computer models are at odds for a solution . . .

GFS shows virtually no snow on Saturday
and not much of a push of cold air into our area on Sunday and Monday.

Meanwhile, the European model gives us a shot of possible significant snow on Saturday, followed by a punch of frigidly cold weather for Sunday into Monday.

I'm going to split the difference and go for a chance of some snow on Saturday,
followed by a moderately cold shot for Sunday and Monday accompanied by blustery
winds. Highs on Saturday around 30 . . . mid 20's Sunday . . . near 30
on Monday. Hoping that things come more into focus regarding this part
of the forecast in the coming days ahead"

[7 Wishes]

NWS is now saying 30% chance of snow Fri night into Sat morning.