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Old 02-16-2012, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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12z gfs swing and a miss. Litterally just 25-50 miles from a decent snowstorm. Gotta love the track suspense. NYC and Southern CT get an inch or two from last update.
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Old 02-16-2012, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Currently Sleet mixing into the drizzle at the coast and reports of Snow in PA right now. Its below 32 degrees above us so It's snowing way up there above 3000 feet.

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Old 02-16-2012, 12:05 PM
 
Location: USA East Coast
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
12z gfs swing and a miss. Litterally just 25-50 miles from a decent snowstorm. Gotta love the track suspense. NYC and Southern CT get an inch or two from last update.
What is funny (when you really think about it)…the way it just would not stop snowing last winter from Dec 26th to early Feb…this winter it seems like it just refuses to snow in the Tri-State area.

I guess it all balances out in the end…just like the old time weathercasters used to say…
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Old 02-16-2012, 12:23 PM
 
Location: Boilermaker Territory
26,404 posts, read 46,544,081 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wavehunter007 View Post
What is funny (when you really think about it)…the way it just would not stop snowing last winter from Dec 26th to early Feb…this winter it seems like it just refuses to snow in the Tri-State area.

I guess it all balances out in the end…just like the old time weathercasters used to say…
With the major exception that the average temperatures are some of the warmest ever over the past year.
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Old 02-16-2012, 12:29 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Euro models runs twice a day. Last update has it staying south. Cloudy and flurries to coast. D.C gets 2-4" of snow.

Snow mixing in Danbury right now (2pm)

And yes...last year anytime there was precip it would snow. Temps were so damn cold. Plus the negative NAO it wound big storms up off the coast.
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Old 02-16-2012, 01:49 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Hi Resolution HRRR model indicating minor accumulations for tonight.

Many spots reporting snow this afternoon. Shouldnt be a big deal but roads could get slick so heads up and slow down!




I am still leaning on a Mid Atlantic Event for this weekend. Imagine that...Snow in Washington D.C and none up here. lol But I'll give update when new GFS rolls out in 3 hours.
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Old 02-16-2012, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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New GFS...WIDE RIGHT....or should I say WIDE south. Looks like we got model agreement. 3 days out now cant go against a majority.

Track will go from Gulf States exit North Carolina and NorthEast... It will shift back and forth 0-50 miles but a Monster snowstorm is not in the picture anymore. We'll be lucky to see 1-3". Virginia will be jackpot zone. D.C/Baltimore should see snow. Atlantic City might even be too far north.

If there's any changes I will post, otherwise...Enjoy the weekend....and Year (again) lol I'll be finishing prepping the veggie garden.


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Old 02-16-2012, 05:14 PM
 
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I'm sure we will get a monster rain storm in march or April.
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Old 02-16-2012, 08:03 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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The short range NAM model now in range brings half foot to Atlantic City. A foot of snow to Western Virginia. Oh so close...

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Old 02-16-2012, 09:41 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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I put this together. Hope it helps understand the timing was critical for this but the 2 northern Waves apparent in Canada will not Merge with the storm currently in Mexico. This does not allow the storm to track north and exit Delmarva. Instead it stays south and exits North Carolina.

The flow of 30,000 feet indicates this is the track give or take a few miles.

Can the upper air flow change and send the storm north a little more?? Sure, mother nature always has last say...but we can only go with the most probable choice. Can the storm slow down and wait for that 2nd Northern Wave?? Absolutely. Models arent indicating that though.

We might get an inch with the clipper Saturday and I'd be surprised to get 1-3 Sunday.
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