[Cambium]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Not that I have found it's "15 day forecast" accurate but Accu-Weather is saying rain for that period but is showing snow for March 5 (the "15th day" in their forecast.....of course 2 days ago they were saying the same for March 3 LOL!)

lmao.. Oh, I stopped looking at Accus long range back in January. All I kept seeing was snow, ice, cold, then it ended up being rain, fog and warm. lol .. Pretty much what the models been doing. I'm not sure what model they go by but I'm thinking a blend of the Euro and the GFS and their own opinion. Who knows. Anything past 3 days is pointless this season. One can only call what they see I guess.

Whats interesting to me is not only the Sub Tropical Jet is becoming more active but the Northern Jet is making its dips a little deeper. Mix the two and a big storm can happen.

La Nina is weakening and will be in Neutral territory next 4-6 weeks. So the atmosphere is changing.

[Cambium]

Here's another look at whats coming up this week as far as temps. All models agree on the warm air pushing into us.

4 different models here. NAM, Euro, Dgex, GFS. Date is on top right of each picture. Pretty much Wednesday through Saturday. Some models warmer than others. I picked the warmest days from each model.

Baltimore should hit mid to upper 60s on Friday.

Just awesome. lol

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

lmao.. Oh, I stopped looking at Accus long range back in January. All I kept seeing was snow, ice, cold, then it ended up being rain, fog and warm. lol .. Pretty much what the models been doing. I'm not sure what model they go by but I'm thinking a blend of the Euro and the GFS and their own opinion. Who knows. Anything past 3 days is pointless this season. One can only call what they see I guess.

To be fair to Brett...he was calling for a mild winter in the Tri-State area back at the end of October. Unlike the winter pushers at Accueather (or JB) he was the one who kind of gave me the idea that we would see nothing like the extremes of last year. He was also the only one who didn't keep saying the NAO was going to go negitive (unlike the winter lovers tried to say all winter). We now all know the NAO was never going to go negitive.

However, it looks like even the die-hards have given up on that one...


AccuWeather.com - Meteo Madness | Snow for the Northern Plains. NAO Remains Positive! (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/meteomadness/snow-for-the-northern-plains-nao-remains-positive/61806 - broken link)

[jp03]

Originally Posted by wavehunter007

That's been my experience too; Crocuses are really tough, I don’t think I ever had one die in late winter if it poked out too early. Also, crocuses coming up in late Feb are really more of a southern CT/LI/NJ thing (I think). The handful of times I’ve ever been up in far northern CT/Massachusetts or points north in late Feb/early March, I don’t remember them up before late March. Not really sure though.

As far as the weather…the final full week of Feb-and meteorological winter 2011/2012 will go out on a mild and semi-wet note. One more cold night tonight (lows around 24- 26 F tonight in southern CT)…then a wetter and milder flow for the next 6 days. By mid week, highs will be in the middle 50’s, so the blooms will really start moving. Another interesting note: Today marks the day when NWS Bridgeport now has normal highs of 40 F or higher – and mean temps average above freezing.

This was truly a nice winter on the East Coast and in the Tri-State area. No days were lost for school, no bad road conditions, no snow removal costs...etc. It was nice to spend many winter days in the park or in the yard fixing things up. For once I'm ready for the long growing season ahead - lol. With a mild March and early start to spring predicted by the ECMWF model weekly...it appears winter 2011/2012 is truly over....and here comes spring and the long hot season ahead.

AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Weekly Pattern Breakdown into Mid-March (http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-pattern-breakdown-into-midmarch/61734 - broken link)


.

Heh...hot season. Coastal CT has no real hot season. After living in the south I know what a hot season is and Coastal CT with average highs in the low 80's at its pinnacle is not hot.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by jp03

Heh...hot season. Coastal CT has no real hot season. After living in the south I know what a hot season is and Coastal CT with average highs in the low 80's at its pinnacle is not hot.

Yeah, also, I wouldn't rule out no snow days yet, there have been years (1982, 1993) where there were little or no snow days until March or even April.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

Yeah, also, I wouldn't rule out no snow days yet, there have been years (1982, 1993) where there were little or no snow days until March or even April.

No doubt .... although a prolonged cold spell is unlikely given the pattern, a big snow or a couple of small events in March would not surprise me at all.

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I saw a segment on TWC last night it was pretty interesting. Stu Ostro explained something about the arctic sea ice melting which is having an effect on atmosphere which in turn keeps a persistent block in an area of north Atlantic. This year it setup differently from last but its been persistant again. I wanted to record it, let me see if i can find it.

Edit: But its not that uncommon for it to remain one direction. Here's the graph over the years. You can see 2010 to 2011(1 full year) we remained deeply negative.
Climate Prediction Center - Teleconnections: North Atlantic Oscillation

Thanks for that graph. I might have seen that before on the CPC site.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Thanks for that graph. I might have seen that before on the CPC site.

Got it.

If anyone hasnt seen pictures from Europe(especially Romania)I urge them to. It litterally looks like an ice Age how they are walking on snow above rooftops and the landscape has completely changed(even in populated areas)

But bottom line is, when you have massive glacier melt going into the water, you cant ignore the fact that it has consequences.


It's cold! Is it climate change? - Carl Parker & Stu Ostro Explain - YouTube

[Cambium]

Here you go. From NWS Boston themselves. We're going for the record. Can you say "Extremes"??

[7 Wishes]

Too bad they don't list Bridgeport on the NWS Boston site anymore.....they have 0.2" so far this Feb. (as does Central Park). CPK actually had ZERO Feb. snow in 1998 and a T in 1938, 1971, 1981 and 2002 and 0.1" in 1892. Bridgeport data is probably similar (my guess is they had a T in 1998 and maybe some but not all of the 3 years CPK had a T in the years BDR has reported weather (1948 on)), but again, it's not on the OKX site.