12-18-2011, 10:38 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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December 21-22, 2011 Storm Update
Rain - Warm.
December 26, 2011 Storm Update
Christmas Eve - Dry & Coold.
Christmas Day - precip starts to move in.
Now entering mid range for this... The last update is crazy. Goes from Rain to a snowstorm as the storm gains strength off the coast and draws in cold air. If we continue to see this and also see something similar with other models then confidence builds... But for now it's only a couple times I seen this senario.
This would equate to 1/4" of rain to 4-6" of snow. Lets see if this trend continues.
12-18-2011, 01:36 PM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
December 21-22, 2011 Storm Update December 26, 2011 Storm Update
That sounds very similar to the Christmas Day 2002 storm.
As for the possible New Year's Day storm, an interesting piece of history. On New Year's Day 1869, the weather station in Central Park opened, one of the first "official" stations in the US (and still going strong obviously!). It opened during a 9" snowstorm. To this day that is still the biggest Jan. 1 snowfall for the Park.
12-18-2011, 03:07 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Christmas 2011 Storm Update
The last Euro run was nuts. Says moderate snowstorm for NorthEast. We'll have to see if this trend continues. 3-6" for most of CT and 6-9" for Litchfield. It basically has a low come from Ohio Valley and move NorthEast with cold air in place.
Here's the snowfall totals on that particular run. Dont look at the date, its accumulated snowfall which includes a couple inches 2 days before.
12-18-2011, 05:46 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Might need to add a storm title in between December 21 and December 25. This is getting crazy with all these disturbances popping up now. For upton to mention snow this far out you know the models are hinting something. Still long medium range anything can change.
NWS NY discussions.
December 23, 2011 Storm:
Quote:
...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COASTAL LOW PASSING TO THE SOUTH ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THERMAL PROFILES SUGGEST SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES AND RAIN ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH PRECIPITATION TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY ON THE NORTHERN TIER. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH SOME POTENTIAL IT COULD END UP MISSING US ENTIRELY TO THE SOUTH .
December 25, 2011 Storm
Quote:
THE NEXT POTENTIAL SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE CHRISTMAS EVE/CHRISTMAS DAY...THIS TIME EJECTING FROM NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AROUND THURSDAY. LIKE THE SYSTEM FOR FRIDAY...THE SURFACE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE SOUTH...THE QUESTION IS HOW FAR. FOLLOWING THE ECMWF...HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST ZONES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING INTO SUNDAY MORNING...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON .
12-19-2011, 05:41 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Christmas 2011 Storm Update
*IF* the last Euro is right, people will not be going anywhere on Christmas day. Snowblowers & plows will be out. People will be stuck where ever they are.
Here's an animation of that update. First 4 images is the pressure of storm. Next 4 are the snowtotals. The green blob would be 12-15".
Not looking good now as this is the 2nd time its shown this and the other models somewhat agree.
12-19-2011, 06:32 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Christmas 2011 Storm Update people will not be going anywhere on Christmas day. Snowblowers & plows will be out. People will be stuck where ever they are.
Scrooge! Someone please post some models that show a less dramatic forecast.
12-19-2011, 07:09 AM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
Christmas 2011 Storm Update
The ultimate White Christmas.....
12-19-2011, 07:10 AM
Location: Out in the stix
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and on 11pm news last night the reiterated chances of a white Christmas in CT anyway were less than 10%, weatherman said if you want a white Christmas go up into Vermont.
12-19-2011, 07:19 AM
Location: USA East Coast
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I think they have a decent shot of a white XMASS in the far north …but it looks like a long shot from the Southern Connecticut/NYC/NJ areas southward for snow on the ground on the 25th. Here is the latest NWS forecast from 30 minutes ago
12-19-2011, 07:30 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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We're still 5 days away guys... Lets see what happens...
Right now "some" not all models are suggesting this snowstorm. The 2 most reliable ones are.
I'll post an update later with my thoughts. Things have to be 99% perfect to get this to happen including the most crucial...TRACK.
This is from NWS Albany:
Quote:
THE SFC WAVE QUICKLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE DELM...ARVA REGION BY 00Z/SUN. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NEAR THE GULF OF ST LAWRENCE. THE WAVE SLOWLY MOVES NORTHEAST TOWARDS ERN LONG ISLAND BY CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH CRITICAL PARTIAL THICKNESS VALUES INDICATING A PREDOMINANTLY ALL SNOW EVENT
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Most Common Occupations - Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations (%)
Most Common Occupations - Construction and extraction occupations (%)
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People in Group quarters - Institutions for the deaf (%)
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People in Group quarters - Orthopedic wards and institutions for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Wards in general hospitals for patients who have no usual home elsewhere (%)
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People in Group quarters - Type of juvenile institution unknown (%)
People in Group quarters - Noninstitutionalized population (%)
People in Group quarters - College dormitories (includes college quarters off campus) (%)
People in Group quarters - Military quarters (%)
People in Group quarters - On base (%)
People in Group quarters - Barracks, unaccompanied personnel housing (UPH), (Enlisted/Officer), ;and similar group living quarters for military personnel (%)
People in Group quarters - Transient quarters for temporary residents (%)
People in Group quarters - Military ships (%)
People in Group quarters - Group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes or halfway houses for drug/alcohol abuse (%)
People in Group quarters - Homes for the mentally ill (%)
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People in Group quarters - Homes for the physically handicapped (%)
People in Group quarters - Other group homes (%)
People in Group quarters - Religious group quarters (%)
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People in Group quarters - Agriculture workers' dormitories on farms (%)
People in Group quarters - Job Corps and vocational training facilities (%)
People in Group quarters - Other workers' dormitories (%)
People in Group quarters - Crews of maritime vessels (%)
People in Group quarters - Other nonhousehold living situations (%)
People in Group quarters - Other noninstitutional group quarters (%)
Residents speaking English at home (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
Residents speaking English at home - Foreign born (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Born in the United States (%)
Residents speaking Spanish at home - Native, born elsewhere (%)
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Residents speaking other language at home - Born in the United States (%)
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Residents speaking other language at home - Foreign born (%)
Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed in own incorporated business (%)
Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
Class of Workers - Local government workers (%)
Class of Workers - State government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Federal government workers (%)
Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
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House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Veteran (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian - Nonveteran (%)
Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
Fatal accidents locations in 2005
Fatal accidents locations in 2006
Fatal accidents locations in 2007
Fatal accidents locations in 2008
Fatal accidents locations in 2009
Fatal accidents locations in 2010
Fatal accidents locations in 2011
Fatal accidents locations in 2012
Fatal accidents locations in 2013
Fatal accidents locations in 2014
Fatal accidents locations in 2015
Fatal accidents locations in 2016
Fatal accidents locations in 2017
Fatal accidents locations in 2018
Fatal accidents locations in 2019
Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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