[Cambium]

Ok, Here We Go...

havent seen these show up since October. Well, they have here and there, but then disappeared.

So far its 3 in a row but the kicker is....all models showing a storm around this time frame.. Lets see what happens.

Next Weekend:


Showing one Around the 9th also.

[Cambium]

I always preach to others "Dont look at precip 7 days out"...but just to show you the strength and amount the models are showing...

3-6" for coast.
6-9" for center of CT up through Windham
12"+ Northern Fairfield, Litchfield, and parts of Hartford.

[Mike 75]

Even if we do get some snow, it will melt within the week.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by 7 Wishes

That 69 is the 2nd highest January reading EVER for Central Park though, I'm not clear the 84 is the same for Columbia, SC (highest is 72 set twice; on yesterday's date in 1950 and on Jan. 6, 2007).

I'm more impressed that it happened in 1916 (whether you believe in global warming or not, personally I fall into the "it's real but exaggerated" group, it's true that more record highs occurred in recent decades and more record lows long ago......now I'm sure some of it is a bigger "heat island" effect today, but not trying to have that debate).

Also that there were apparently FOUR times this very week that had mid-high 60s historically, in 1916, 1950, 1967 and 1974.....maybe it's a "January thaw" rationale or something.....though CBS News Radio 88 noted this morning that we had 1-2' of snow fall one year ago today (my parents would talk about the 1967 "January heat wave" a lot because they got married during it).

From what at can tell on the NWS NowData page for Columbia...84 F is the warmest Jan temp sicne 1897. I didn't know 72 F was the all time Jan record for Central Park Seeing that, it makes the difference between subtropical Columbia, SC and NYC even more amazing. Just 12 F between them.

Another thing (comment above Mike 75)...as we get into Feb, I think the warmth of the ground will really start to play a role in whatever is left of winter. I live on the coastal plain, so normally the ground never freezes in my part of Connecticut. However (on average), the ground is frozen more often than not in northern Connecticut. Not this year. So I think Mike might have a point: Snow will really have a hard time sticking in whatever is left of winter.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Not necessarily. Need 3 things to cooperate for Hurricanes.

Water Temps
Atmosphere temps
Wind

La Nina tends to suck the warmth out of the atmosphere so we're actually slightly cooler up there.

If there's wind shear it doesnt matter how warm either are. The wind will shread apart any development.

but yeah, no real cold air drove south long enough to cool down the Gulf so its pretty warm in there still.

Well I think we all know warm water alone does not create a hurricane. I didn't say warm water was the only thing needed. I just said warm water is a breeding ground if hurricanes have the proper environment to develop.

[Cambium]

So what do you guys wanna talk about?

Apparently some snow fell in Litchfield yesterday morning. LOL.



HPC has 50s again for us. But for today? I thought we would be in 40s today. I honestly dont remember seeing a pattern that stays the same for more than 10 weeks. We been in this warm/quick cold pattern since November now.



Storm for around the 4th still showing up. GFS lost it. Euro is weak. Nogaps has it but west of us.

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So what do you guys wanna talk about?

Apparently some snow fell in Litchfield yesterday morning. LOL.



HPC has 50s again for us. But for today? I thought we would be in 40s today. I honestly dont remember seeing a pattern that stays the same for more than 10 weeks. We been in this warm/quick cold pattern since November now.



Storm for around the 4th still showing up. GFS lost it. Euro is weak. Nogaps has it but west of us.

I think the map may be an error, NWS is still saying highs around 45 today, it's only showing those highs for Wednesday.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Cambium

So what do you guys wanna talk about?

.

Tell us more about a potential storm next weekend! Would be a great time to stay indoors anyway, with the Super Bowl and all. Could really use a couple of weeks of real winter, with snow actually sticking around for a while...

[Arm&Hammer]

So sorry for the winter lovers... we mild folks keeps winning every time

[Cambium]

Superbowl Storm Update

New Euro model has it at benchmark which is key placement for a snowstorm BUT...BUT, surface temps are in mid 30s. Key point here is, a storm continues to show up on the models. New Euro is actually faster with it making it happen on Friday the 2nd.

While the NAO isnt deeply negative, one thing we cant ignore is the PNA being insanely positive. That implies a Ridge in the West, Trough in East which would support cooler temps.

Its still a day or two out of range for NWS discussions but they do acknowledge a trough setup.

BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS IN THE MEAN REFLECT MEAN
TROUGH OVER THE NE US DURING THE TIME FRAME...THEY JUST GO ABOUT
ACHIEVING IT DIFFERENTLY