08-19-2014, 05:02 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Last 5 years at BDR has more snow than the entire decade of the 1980s and entire decade of the 1950s.
I'll pull some more winter stats as we get closer. Its still August.
Felt like Upper 40s before in some spots. Here's 7am OBS sorted by Lows. I bottomed at 57.3°
08-19-2014, 06:01 AM
Location: Live in NY, work in CT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
Cambium
I partially agree with this. In fact I mentioned something regarding it few weeks go when some kids were putting out a forecast already.
However, it's not JUST about current pattern even though we've been in it for over 7 months now. It's about analogs. Weather is a marriage. There's so many different players involved. So when you look at those players and find previous years that match whats going on
now you have an "idea" what could be coming. Its just an idea of course but there's backup for it.
Sure anything can change, it always has, but at least you have some backup for the theory and not just whats happening now.
For instance... how many Summers in the past had digging Jet Stream, Warm Pacific after a cold Pacific over winter, Low Sun spots, East winds in the Stratosphere? Not often. So what you can do is look for those years that did and use them as analogs for upcoming.
The Pacific spiking warm was one way to know a cold East just based on previous years showing that result.
50yrs? Totally disagree. 2009 & 2004 match up ok. Have to look more into it. You're saying we haven't had this pattern since the 60s? I think it happens every 5-10yrs but that's hard to find since recent decades we've been warmer. Now with the sun going to sleep, times should be different.
After all.... 5 of the last 7 years are Bridgeport/Stratford Top snowiest years
Matches up with 1992, 1996 and 2000 as well....
08-19-2014, 06:33 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
7 Wishes
Matches up with 1992, 1996 and 2000 as well....
Yup... now what you do is look at those 3 years. In 1992 did we have a developing El Nino like we do this year? No, we were already in El Nino and heading towards Neutral. So that year wouldn't be an analog year for this coming winter.
In 2000 we stayed in La Nina so that's not matching whats going on this year.
Climate Prediction Center - Monitoring & Data: ENSO Impacts on the U.S. - Previous Events
Just pointing out to others there's more that goes into a forecast than current conditions. Just look back and match and go with that. That's really all we can do.
08-19-2014, 09:10 AM
Location: Rochester, NY
1,129 posts, read
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I heard two different things:
08-19-2014, 11:05 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,522 posts, read
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Reputation: 16620
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Computergeek
I heard two different things:
We all know what I want.
But not likely to happen around here. More like AntArctic Style Winters. LOL . There's a better percentage of the former than the latter you mentioned. Doesn't mean the latter cant happen. Nothing is 100%...Odds are against a warm winter right now
----------------------------------
1pm. Light winds and 70s. Dewpoints in the strange 50s across the state. How many days has this been now? Amazing August weather. My neighbor closed their pool! LOL!
08-19-2014, 11:51 AM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Here were the actual lows today in the Northeast.
Normal low for BDL is 61°.
08-19-2014, 02:39 PM
Location: Northeast states
14,055 posts, read
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Something to watch very closely
08-19-2014, 04:50 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by
BPt111
Something to watch very closely
For who? Carribbean, Gulf Coast, Southeast, Bermuda Yes. Us, No. Still early but have to go with consensus and nothing points to a threat for us.
----------------------------
Latest GFS for Danbury. Do you guys see any 80s or 90s? Nope. Status quo. Mostly 70s during the day with some 80s popping up here and there. Dewpoints don't look bad. Not much rain in sight.
We'll see plenty of 80s tomorrow I think. (these are max/min so add/subtract a few degrees)
08-19-2014, 04:52 PM
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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My neighbor closed their in-ground pool. It just wasn't warming up enough and there's no point in maintaining it. I don't blame them. As we know usually they close it mid September (typically after labor day) WoW!
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Average family size
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Geographical mobility - Same house 1 year ago (%)
Geographical mobility - Moved within same county (%)
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Housing units in structures - 1, detached (%)
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House/condo owner moved in on average (years ago)
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Industry diversity
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Class of Workers - Employee of private company (%)
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Class of Workers - Private not-for-profit wage and salary workers (%)
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Class of Workers - Self-employed workers in own not incorporated business and Unpaid family workers (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Utility gas (%)
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House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Electricity (%)
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House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Coal or coke (%)
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House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Solar energy (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - Other fuel (%)
House heating fuel used in houses and condos - No fuel used (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Utility gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Bottled, tank, or LP gas (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Electricity (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Fuel oil, kerosene, etc. (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Coal or coke (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Wood (%)
House heating fuel used in apartments - Solar energy (%)
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House heating fuel used in apartments - No fuel used (%)
Armed forces status - In Armed Forces (%)
Armed forces status - Civilian (%)
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Fatal accidents locations in years 2005-2021
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Fatal accidents locations in 2020
Fatal accidents locations in 2021
Alcohol use - People drinking some alcohol every month (%)
Alcohol use - People not drinking at all (%)
Alcohol use - Average days/month drinking alcohol
Alcohol use - Average drinks/week
Alcohol use - Average days/year people drink much
Audiometry - Average condition of hearing (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear a whisper from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - People that can hear normal voice from across a quiet room (%)
Audiometry - Ears ringing, roaring, buzzing (%)
Audiometry - Had a job exposure to loud noise (%)
Audiometry - Had off-work exposure to loud noise (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high blood pressure (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Checking blood pressure at home (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Frequently checking blood cholesterol (%)
Blood Pressure & Cholesterol - Has high cholesterol level (%)
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at supermarket/grocery store
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on food at other stores
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on eating out
Consumer Behavior - Money monthly spent on carryout/delivered foods
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at supermarket/grocery store (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on food at other stores (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on eating out (%)
Consumer Behavior - Income spent on carryout/delivered foods (%)
Current Health Status - General health condition (%)
Current Health Status - Blood donors (%)
Current Health Status - Has blood ever tested for HIV virus (%)
Current Health Status - Left-handed people (%)
Dermatology - People using sunscreen (%)
Diabetes - Diabetics (%)
Diabetes - Had a blood test for high blood sugar (%)
Diabetes - People taking insulin (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Diet health (%)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Milk product consumption (# of products/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals not home prepared (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Meals from fast food or pizza place (#/week)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Ready-to-eat foods (#/month)
Diet Behavior & Nutrition - Frozen meals/pizza (#/month)
Drug Use - People that ever used marijuana or hashish (%)
Drug Use - Ever used hard drugs (%)
Drug Use - Ever used any form of cocaine (%)
Drug Use - Ever used heroin (%)
Drug Use - Ever used methamphetamine (%)
Health Insurance - People covered by health insurance (%)
Kidney Conditions-Urology - Avg. # of times urinating at night
Medical Conditions - People with asthma (%)
Medical Conditions - People with anemia (%)
Medical Conditions - People with psoriasis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with overweight (%)
Medical Conditions - Elderly people having difficulties in thinking or remembering (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever received blood transfusion (%)
Medical Conditions - People having trouble seeing even with glass/contacts (%)
Medical Conditions - People with arthritis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with gout (%)
Medical Conditions - People with congestive heart failure (%)
Medical Conditions - People with coronary heart disease (%)
Medical Conditions - People with angina pectoris (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had heart attack (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had stroke (%)
Medical Conditions - People with emphysema (%)
Medical Conditions - People with thyroid problem (%)
Medical Conditions - People with chronic bronchitis (%)
Medical Conditions - People with any liver condition (%)
Medical Conditions - People who ever had cancer or malignancy (%)
Mental Health - People who have little interest in doing things (%)
Mental Health - People feeling down, depressed, or hopeless (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble sleeping or sleeping too much (%)
Mental Health - People feeling tired or having little energy (%)
Mental Health - People with poor appetite or overeating (%)
Mental Health - People feeling bad about themself (%)
Mental Health - People who have trouble concentrating on things (%)
Mental Health - People moving or speaking slowly or too fast (%)
Mental Health - People having thoughts they would be better off dead (%)
Oral Health - Average years since last visit a dentist
Oral Health - People embarrassed because of mouth (%)
Oral Health - People with gum disease (%)
Oral Health - General health of teeth and gums (%)
Oral Health - Average days a week using dental floss/device
Oral Health - Average days a week using mouthwash for dental problem
Oral Health - Average number of teeth
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to control insects (%)
Pesticide Use - Households using pesticides to kill weeds (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity work activities (%)
Physical Activity - People walking or bicycling (%)
Physical Activity - People doing vigorous-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - People doing moderate-intensity recreational activities (%)
Physical Activity - Average hours a day doing sedentary activities
Physical Activity - Average hours a day watching TV or videos
Physical Activity - Average hours a day using computer
Physical Functioning - People having limitations keeping them from working (%)
Physical Functioning - People limited in amount of work they can do (%)
Physical Functioning - People that need special equipment to walk (%)
Physical Functioning - People experiencing confusion/memory problems (%)
Physical Functioning - People requiring special healthcare equipment (%)
Prescription Medications - Average number of prescription medicines taking
Preventive Aspirin Use - Adults 40+ taking low-dose aspirin (%)
Reproductive Health - Vaginal deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Cesarean deliveries (%)
Reproductive Health - Deliveries resulted in a live birth (%)
Reproductive Health - Pregnancies resulted in a delivery (%)
Reproductive Health - Women breastfeeding newborns (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had a hysterectomy (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that had both ovaries removed (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever taken birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women taking birth control pills (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used Depo-Provera or injectables (%)
Reproductive Health - Women that have ever used female hormones (%)
Sexual Behavior - People 18+ that ever had sex (vaginal, anal, or oral) (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had anal sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Males 18+ that ever had any sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had vaginal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever performed oral sex on a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had anal sex with a man (%)
Sexual Behavior - Females 18+ that ever had any kind of sex with a woman (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first had sex
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female vaginal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a woman (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of woman performed oral sex on in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male anal sex partners in lifetime (males 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average age people first performed oral sex on a man (18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male oral sex partners in lifetime (18+)
Sexual Behavior - People using protection when performing oral sex (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of times people have vaginal or anal sex a year
Sexual Behavior - People having sex without condom (%)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of male vaginal sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Average number of female sex partners in lifetime (females 18+)
Sexual Behavior - Circumcised males 18+ (%)
Sleep Disorders - Average hours sleeping at night
Sleep Disorders - People that has trouble sleeping (%)
Smoking-Cigarette Use - People smoking cigarettes (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with smell (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ having problems with taste (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had wisdom teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had tonsils teeth removed (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a loss of consciousness because of a head injury (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had a broken nose or other serious injury to face or skull (%)
Taste & Smell - People 40+ that ever had two or more sinus infections (%)
Weight - Average height (inches)
Weight - Average weight (pounds)
Weight - Average BMI
Weight - People that are obese (%)
Weight - People that ever were obese (%)
Weight - People trying to lose weight (%)
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But not likely to happen around here. More like AntArctic Style Winters. LOL . There's a better percentage of the former than the latter you mentioned. Doesn't mean the latter cant happen. Nothing is 100%...Odds are against a warm winter right now
