[Cambium]

I dropped to 59° here. 5th time this month in the 50s. ( still less than last year by now)

Current temps. The only area more than 3 below norm is the northeast north of Baltimore.

[Cambium]

Status quo next few days maybe longer! Little mugginess max temps in upper 70s low 80s.

The nails are being hammered on the 90s. Couple weeks left to get them and we're clear. I don't see support for it up this way.

2 tolerable Augusts quite possible

[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Status quo next few days maybe longer! Little mugginess max temps in upper 70s low 80s.

The nails are being hammered on the 90s. Couple weeks left to get them and we're clear. I don't see support for it up this way.

2 tolerable Augusts quite possible

We may briefly see a 90 or two next week, but I think that's it. Then again, with last year's "tolerable August" it suddenly was 90 (at least in Central Park) on Sept. 1 (but that was it). Another site I'm on notes that around here the average date of last 90+ temperature is mid-late August, so yeah, we're pretty much done with it for the most part.

[Cambium]

Another Chilly Night tonight with widespread 40s for Northern New England and 50s for southern. 30s for Adirondaks.



Current Temps and Dewpoints. Again! Tolerable and Amazing August on hand. Status quo next few days continues

[Cambium]

As averages go down, if you want heat, this isn't something you want to be reading.

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
408 PM EDT MON AUG 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING DOWN FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EAST INTO
NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS SEVERAL WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE PASS TO THE WEST AND SOUTH.


TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY AND FALL
TO BELOW NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND

So looks like Status quo next 7 days. 50s/low 60s at night and 70s during the day with an occasional low 80s popping up somewhere.

No Warm/Hot & Muggy air in sight. Might get humid now and then but thing supporting those lovely suppressive August days

[Csiko]

Originally Posted by Cambium

As averages go down, if you want heat, this isn't something you want to be reading.



So looks like Status quo next 7 days. 50s/low 60s at night and 70s during the day with an occasional low 80s popping up somewhere.

No Warm/Hot & Muggy air in sight. Might get humid now and then but thing supporting those lovely suppressive August days

I dunno if I can take a third long winter in a row. Hoping that's not the case and this cooler than average weather stops late autumn. Probably unlikely. :/

[nep321]

Did anyone see that this upcoming winter is supposed to be VERY cold and VERY snowy?

The Early 2014-15 Winter Forecast For Our Region

[EricS39]

Originally Posted by nep321

Did anyone see that this upcoming winter is supposed to be VERY cold and VERY snowy?

The Early 2014-15 Winter Forecast For Our Region

I think this is all a persistency forecast

It means the assumption is that the current polar vortex and oscillation patterns we have now will remain in effect

I disagree. I think this winter forecast is naive because one even slight change of assumption or shifting pattern can cause a massive restatement and make for a much different winter

This is a cold pattern year that may not repeat again for 50 years and I would be surprised if it holds up for more than a few more months tops

[jp03]

Originally Posted by EricS39

I think this is all a persistency forecast

It means the assumption is that the current polar vortex and oscillation patterns we have now will remain in effect

I disagree. I think this winter forecast is naive because one even slight change of assumption or shifting pattern can cause a massive restatement and make for a much different winter

This is a cold pattern year that may not repeat again for 50 years and I would be surprised if it holds up for more than a few more months tops

A voice of reason...thank you. Why are we even THINKING ABOUT a winter forecast. There is NO way to know anything at this juncture.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by EricS39

I think this is all a persistency forecast

It means the assumption is that the current polar vortex and oscillation patterns we have now will remain in effect

I disagree. I think this winter forecast is naive because one even slight change of assumption or shifting pattern can cause a massive restatement and make for a much different winter

I partially agree with this. In fact I mentioned something regarding it few weeks go when some kids were putting out a forecast already.

However, it's not JUST about current pattern even though we've been in it for over 7 months now. It's about analogs. Weather is a marriage. There's so many different players involved. So when you look at those players and find previous years that match whats going on now you have an "idea" what could be coming. Its just an idea of course but there's backup for it.

Sure anything can change, it always has, but at least you have some backup for the theory and not just whats happening now.

For instance... how many Summers in the past had digging Jet Stream, Warm Pacific after a cold Pacific over winter, Low Sun spots, East winds in the Stratosphere? Not often. So what you can do is look for those years that did and use them as analogs for upcoming.

The Pacific spiking warm was one way to know a cold East just based on previous years showing that result.

Originally Posted by EricS39

This is a cold pattern year that may not repeat again for 50 years and I would be surprised if it holds up for more than a few more months tops

50yrs? Totally disagree. 2009 & 2004 match up ok. Have to look more into it. You're saying we haven't had this pattern since the 60s? I think it happens every 5-10yrs but that's hard to find since recent decades we've been warmer. Now with the sun going to sleep, times should be different.

After all.... 5 of the last 7 years are Bridgeport/Stratford Top snowiest years