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Only Super Nino's and east based Nino's would bring milder conditions for eastern US/Canada. Modoki's usually are big ticket winters especially for the Southern US and East Coast.
I like the sound of this. "This is just the beginning"
I can wait till May when winter is still rocking and rolling and you cry mercy . You know it and I know it ain’t no spring 2019. Question is more about summer.
I can wait till May when winter is still rocking and rolling and you cry mercy . You know it and I know it ain’t no spring 2019. Question is more about summer.
Well if 2009-2010 is an analog as is stated below, then Spring here should be nice. March and April were well above average, May was average and that summer was above average
Yeah 09 and 10 are on a boat alone most other analog show a backloaded winter. 02-03 is the strongest analog I believe and that saw... cold through and through. Besides an early spring after a long winter has not been typical of this decade and likely won’t happen until climate shifts again. This decade has its own set of conditions dominated by an overpowered western ridge .
Well if 2009-2010 is an analog as is stated below, then Spring here should be nice. March and April were well above average, May was average and that summer was above average
But I'm starting to love the pattern as we head into the winter
I’ll only take it if the record cold winter has respectable snow and ice storms, otherwise, this winter could well be the worst winter ever for the plains and Midwest states, I.e. record cold and dry.
Yeah 09 and 10 are on a boat alone most other analog show a backloaded winter. 02-03 is the strongest analog I believe and that saw... cold through and through. Besides an early spring after a long winter has not been typical of this decade and likely won’t happen until climate shifts again. This decade has its own set of conditions dominated by an overpowered western ridge .
2003 was the coldest year of the century over here. If 2002/03 and 2014/15 are analogs...yikes. We're in for a very very very bad time
This has to be the one of the steepest, if not the steepest, drops in temperature on record from September to November.
November 1-16, the average is 53 / 37 F (12 / 3 C).
September 6-21, the average was 87 / 68 F (31 / 20 C).
So that's a 33 F / 18 C drop in less than two months.
I think we're going to have a quite cold winter. It's already pretty much winter now.
I think 2019 is going to have a Dfa climate with the coldest month of this winter having a mean of about 30 F / -1 C, maybe colder. That was the mean for January 2014. Average is about 36 F / 2 C.
2018 might even go Dfa if December's mean gets below freezing. January was close at 33 F / 1 C.
Yeah 09 and 10 are on a boat alone most other analog show a backloaded winter. 02-03 is the strongest analog I believe and that saw... cold through and through. Besides an early spring after a long winter has not been typical of this decade and likely won’t happen until climate shifts again. This decade has its own set of conditions dominated by an overpowered western ridge .
2002-2003 was definitely an awful spring and summer too.
Other analog years for this winter
1968-68: cold winter, very cold March, normal April-May almost record chilly June. Normal July-Aug
1976-77: brutal winter. Jan coldest on record. Very mild spring May warmest in record. Normal June, much above normal July, slightly below normal August
1977-78: brutal winter, brutal March near record cold. Near normal April, chilly May. Normal July, below normal July-Aug
1986-87: normal Dec-Jan. Much above normal Feb. Above normal spring, above normal summer
1994-95: above normal Dec. Normal Jan. Below normal Feb, March April and May. Scorching hot summer
2006-07: very mild Dec and Jan, extremely cold Feb. Above normal March, below normal April. Very warm May. Near normal summer
2014-15: mild Dec near normal January. February tied for coldest in record. Cold March, nice May, slightly below normal summer, with few hot spells of any..
This December is looking more interesting..take a look at this. Possible PV split??
Weather Channel revised their winter forecast. HUGE difference. February looks like shades of 2015
and this is what they originally thought for December issued in mid October
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. You know it and I know it ain’t no spring 2019. Question is more about summer.
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