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Christmas is looking quite cold here per TWC. A chance of snow had even been in the forecast earlier! Still shows frozen precip chances later in the week.
It's a good sign for a weather forecast when the GFS and ECMWF begin to agree with each other, right?
For me, the remainder of this week will be a mild reprieve from the recent cold spell, with low temperatures in the mid-40s to mid-50s through Saturday, and high temperatures in the mid- to upper 60s every day except Thursday, which will only max out in the lower 50s due to easterly winds and cold-air damming. The mildest day this week will be either Wednesday or Saturday.
Interestingly, the Storm Prediction Center is forecasting a "Marginal" risk of severe thunderstorms on Wednesday along and near I-20 from Mississippi to Georgia, with a threat for severe wind gusts and even a weak tornado in the more discrete thunderstorms, and the peak of the action occurring from the late morning in Mississippi to the mid-afternoon in Georgia. There could also be a marginal severe threat somewhere in the South on Saturday, but nobody's sure where yet.
Then there's Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Let me give you the details from each weather model (00Z) for those two days:
GFS: Rain chances begin gradually increasing on Saturday afternoon, with the highest likelihood on Sunday (Christmas Eve) morning before gradually decreasing through the afternoon. Rainfall totals for the duration of the event from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon are forecast to be near 2". Temperatures will begin in the mid-60s on Saturday afternoon before stepping down into the lower to mid-50s from Saturday night through Sunday afternoon, then the lower to mid-40s from Sunday night through Monday (Christmas Day) afternoon, and finally down to near freezing by Monday night.
ECMWF: Rain chances rapidly increase on Saturday night and hold steady through Sunday (Christmas Eve) afternoon, with the highest likelihood on Sunday night through the overnight hours on Monday (Christmas Day) before rapidly decreasing on Monday morning. Rainfall totals for the duration of the event are forecast to be more than 2". Temperatures will begin in the upper 60s on Saturday night before stepping down into the lower 60s on Sunday, and then gradually but continuously falling from the upper 50s during the overnight hours on Monday through the 40s during the day, and finally down to near freezing by Monday night.
To my untrained eye, both models seem to be in agreement that there will be a major frontal passage in my area on Christmas Eve with a heavy rain event, and temperatures either stepping down or steadily falling for a period of about 48 hours, into and through Christmas Day. The only disagreement at this point seems to be with the timing of the frontal passage, with a difference of about 12-18 hours. The GFS seems to pass it through on the morning of Christmas Eve, and the ECMWF seems to pass it through on either the evening of Christmas Eve or the overnight hours of Christmas Day. Either way, I'm happy because the temperatures are forecast to collapse on Christmas Day, and I'll be set for my first seasonable weather in three years.
It's a good sign for a weather forecast when the GFS and ECMWF begin to agree with each other, right?
To my untrained eye, both models seem to be in agreement that there will be a major frontal passage in my area on Christmas Eve with a heavy rain event, and temperatures either stepping down or steadily falling for a period of about 48 hours, into and through Christmas Day. The only disagreement at this point seems to be with the timing of the frontal passage, with a difference of about 12-18 hours. The GFS seems to pass it through on the morning of Christmas Eve, and the ECMWF seems to pass it through on either the evening of Christmas Eve or the overnight hours of Christmas Day. Either way, I'm happy because the temperatures are forecast to collapse on Christmas Day, and I'll be set for my first seasonable weather in three years.
Correct me if I'm wrong, though.
Nice summary and that shows things well rather than posting maps and stuff! NWS might recruit you. Nice work.
Yeah, good when they agree, doesn't mean exacts will happen as is but confidence on the overall forecast is better. Exact Precip amounts always will be different until day of but we can get an idea how wet or dry a system is days before.
Yeah, consensus still saying this front comes through on the 23rd with rain, then wicked cold air comes back. We'll see who changes to snow. Also, as the front goes off the coast there might be a coastal storm developing which would lead to another snow chance for Northeast.
Anyone wanting warmth or seasonable temps enjoy this week.
GFS6z for December 23rd. Warm and Rain in East.
Euro00z 5000' temp anomaly Christmas evening. Core moves into Northeast next day. Euro slower with that front. GFS says Christmas is much colder for here and Vermont because its bit faster with that front
Nice summary and that shows things well rather than posting maps and stuff! NWS might recruit you. Nice work.
Yeah, good when they agree, doesn't mean exacts will happen as is but confidence on the overall forecast is better. Exact Precip amounts always will be different until day of but we can get an idea how wet or dry a system is days before.
Yeah, consensus still saying this front comes through on the 23rd with rain, then wicked cold air comes back. We'll see who changes to snow. Also, as the front goes off the coast there might be a coastal storm developing which would lead to another snow chance for Northeast.
Anyone wanting warmth or seasonable temps enjoy this week.
GFS6z for December 23rd. Warm and Rain in East.
Euro00z 5000' temp anomaly Christmas evening. Core moves into Northeast next day. Euro slower with that front. GFS says Christmas is much colder for here and Vermont because its bit faster with that front
Whoa, I'm in the PURPLE, not the RED or BROWN!
All I want for Christmas is that map to verify!
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A chance of snow had even been in the forecast earlier! Still shows frozen precip chances later in the week.
