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Want forcasting chaos?
This is the GEFS spaghetti plot for Christmas Eve. 528-570 Height line.
Basically all those lines represent a result from each member of the model. Note the positions are very different which means very little confidence. Look at a time frame closer in time and you'll see the lines cliser together.
The 2 dintinguished sets is the main jet stream (trough for the West) and the Polar Jet stream diving down.
Each one of those lines has a different result for temps and precip type
Mean Max: 39 F/4 C
Mean Min: 22 F/-6 C
Mean: 31 F/-1 C
Highest Max: 55 F/13 C
Lowest Max: 23 F/-5 C
Highest Min: 34 F/1 C
Lowest Min: 6 F/-14 C
Running right around average. Thought it would have been below, but recent Decembers have been mild so it feels colder. Had 3 ice days. Snowed Thursday morning and Friday evening. Both events dropped roughly 1-2 inches. MTD that would bring the total around at least 6 inches. Definitely one of the best Decembers in a while.
Want forcasting chaos?
This is the GEFS spaghetti plot for Christmas Eve. 528-570 Height line.
Basically all those lines represent a result from each member of the model. Note the positions are very different which means very little confidence. Look at a time frame closer in time and you'll see the lines cliser together.
The 2 dintinguished sets is the main jet stream (trough for the West) and the Polar Jet stream diving down.
Each one of those lines has a different result for temps and precip type
Heres for Tuesday only 3 days away... see how tight they are? Confident of the weather pattern
still tells us a bunch, shows the polar jet almost certainly will be north of New England while the subtropical jet on or very near us. Near a frontal boundary? Or just the northernmost place along the coast getting mild air? Or just missing it as the mild air stops in Maryland.
GFS showing an very cold Christmas over Western U.S and Plains, maybe 20s in Phoenix?
That model run had me worried, but the latest one shows a much weaker SE ridge, and a bit of snow across central LA on Christmas Eve night. It seems lately the GFS has been more consistent with showing cool to cold here on Christmas so I'm hoping that one model run this afternoon was a blip.
That model run had me worried, but the latest one shows a much weaker SE ridge, and a bit of snow across central LA on Christmas Eve night. It seems lately the GFS has been more consistent with showing cool to cold here on Christmas so I'm hoping that one model run this afternoon was a blip.
How would you like to be in northern Minnesota International Falls?
I'm enjoying this NW flow pattern with the occasional clipper. Not looking forward to the return of the SER.
Last edited by TheRealDavid; 12-16-2017 at 11:11 PM..
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