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Old 11-02-2017, 03:44 AM
 
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https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/s...21675493158912
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Old 11-02-2017, 11:00 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,545 posts, read 75,390,209 times
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Impressive snow cover across Canada as of now (November 2nd)


Storm tracks have been pretty much the black path I drew. In time the track should shift east as the snow pack builds.


Hopefully December it's the red path and then as the snowpack builds in northern U.S the storm tracks are even further south for January.


Would love to revisit this post in 2 months from now see how it \ played out.


Source:







Duluth already has 15.5" of snow for the season. That's over a foot above normal. Could be an Epic 1st half of Winter for them if these storms continue. They got hit with a clipper yesterday. October 27th was the previous big snowstorm.




2nd snowiest to date. Only 1991 had more snow up to this point.

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Old 11-02-2017, 01:37 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post

I'm pretty sure now we are getting a back loaded winter yet again. Prolly a cold Feb and March yet again. Hopefully a real April though.
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Old 11-02-2017, 01:45 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
I'm pretty sure now we are getting a back loaded winter yet again. Prolly a cold Feb and March yet again. Hopefully a real April though.


Probably. Looks like once we get past this MJO phase which will keep the cold coming at least for the Midwest, La Nina will take over in December.... Polar Vortext might be bottled up in the Arctic until January


https://twitter.com/WGNWeatherGuy/st...23997053546496
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Old 11-02-2017, 01:48 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Probably. Looks like once we get past this MJO phase which will keep the cold coming at least for the Midwest, La Nina will take over in December.... Polar Vortext might be bottled up in the Arctic until January


https://twitter.com/WGNWeatherGuy/st...23997053546496

Where you thinking the polar vortex will head in January? Over Eastern US, Asia or Europe?
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Old 11-02-2017, 03:34 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
. Polar Vortex might be bottled up in the Arctic until January
Different look this year..

Studies shown a weaker split Polar Vortex leads to better chances of cold in North america or Europe and a stronger (bottled up) vortex leads to warmer times.

Last year was split but I think didnt affect us till Feb-Mar? Or maybe was split early, consolidated, then split again? I forget

https://twitter.com/judah47/status/925737681811902464
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Old 11-02-2017, 06:12 PM
 
Location: Vancouver, BC
769 posts, read 480,399 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Probably. Looks like once we get past this MJO phase which will keep the cold coming at least for the Midwest, La Nina will take over in December.... Polar Vortext might be bottled up in the Arctic until January


https://twitter.com/WGNWeatherGuy/st...23997053546496
I don't think its even possible for the Polar Vortex to hit the PNW. Seems like it always hits the east coast.
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Old 11-03-2017, 04:59 AM
 
Location: Live:Downtown Phoenix, AZ/Work:Greater Los Angeles, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpvan View Post
I don't think its even possible for the Polar Vortex to hit the PNW. Seems like it always hits the east coast.
Makes sense, as the Arctic Ocean is completely east of the Continental Divide, and cold air can't cross high mountains, as it sinks rather than rises
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Old 11-03-2017, 09:25 AM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by FirebirdCamaro1220 View Post
Makes sense, as the Arctic Ocean is completely east of the Continental Divide, and cold air can't cross high mountains, as it sinks rather than rises
If the PNW can't get it, how did Seattle get down to 0F in the past?
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Old 11-03-2017, 10:24 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,545 posts, read 75,390,209 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rpvan View Post
I don't think its even possible for the Polar Vortex to hit the PNW. Seems like it always hits the east coast.
Without getting too much into it, the PV is not like a surface storm or High. It doesn't have a range of movement or locations it goes over. It also doesn't have to move over a certain area to feel the affects of it. In fact it rarely enters the Eastern U.S as well.


Lets look at Seattle... December 2009. Look at that stretch of below normal temps first 2 weeks.. Lets look at the pattern that was in place...







On December 6th, The Polar Vortex was still up near the Arctic, no where near the PacNW but because the Jet stream was dipping down Western U.S, over those tall Rocky mountains, cold air was coming down and there was an Upper Low over the Area.


Upper Lows generate cold periods.


but watch where that Polar Vortex went the following week..







December 10th it shifted south more and the PacNW had a very cold flow from the North thanks to a cold PV up there. Look at the lows that day







The PV made it to central Manitoba and started lifting north. Click source and go through the maps for following days


Source:
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