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La Nina setup for greater potential upstream snow cover in northern Great Lakes and southern Canada, stronger southeast ridge- will end up equaling very active storm track in eastern US.
La Nina setup for greater potential upstream snow cover in northern Great Lakes and southern Canada, stronger southeast ridge- will end up equaling very active storm track in eastern US.
And unlike last year where the Pacific jet was racing across California and the U.S, Im hoping it enters the PacNW instead as shown here
Unfortunately we need that suppressed jet here to have a prolonged cold stretch. However, we'd still fare well even if the jet was further north, say pointed towards OR instead of CA. Would lead to a snowier pattern as long as the jet stays south of WA.
If that is true, and precip trend is still flat, then it means it's getting colder for the boreal winters.
No, not really the case at all. Heavier snows and more frequent snows occur at milder temperatures up north when they would have had less snow and colder temperatures more commonly in the past.
No, not really the case at all. Heavier snows and more frequent snows occur at milder temperatures up north when they would have had less snow and colder temperatures more commonly in the past.
Nonsense, utter and complete nonsense. I've posted about this before, and based on experience, it won't make a bit of difference. In essence, the claim is that it snow more when it's warmer, which is complete nonsense for most of the US.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX
The person making the claim is the one required to show evidence, but even so, this one is easy to debunk, because anyone can simply check the data. More snow is almost always directly associated with colder temperatures, both snow extent and amounts. The opposite is also easy to observe, the warmest winters have the least snow. This is true for cities, as well as climate regions, even on a continental scale.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX
I checked (using NY Central Park data) and it's pretty obvious it is temperature, most significantly J-M temperatures. When it is cooling, snow totals go up. When it is warming, snow totals go down (trend). Precipitation shows no trend.
This is true for any period you can use. Warming trends show less snow, cooling trends show more snow. Many other stations (but not all) show the same thing. Of course other quality stations in other states show the exact same thing. Temperature goes down, snow fall goes up.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX
The cooling boreal winter trend is centered around February, so it shows up in both the winter and first quarter trend.
For most of the NH, extreme cold is always associated with a lot of snow. Warm or mild winters are dry, or mostly rainy.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX
Of course not. Lack of snow is almost always associated with above normal temps. (there are exceptions, but that gets complicated fast)
I'm not sure what you are asking. Certainly there can be very cold temps with no snow, but for averages, climate data, lower than normal is almost always directly connected to more snow (even when there is less precip). This is of course regional, some areas the amount of precip is directly connected to snow because it is almost always going to snow when there is any precip.
But for areas that temperature is the main factor for snow, (not precip amounts), colder than normal is almost always directly connected to more snow.
Here is an expert opinion stating this as fact. Trends in Twentieth-Century U.S. Extreme Snowfall Seasons
While the amount of precipitation (that is going to fall as snow) is a variable, all other things being equal, the amount of snow is directly connected to how cold the air is. It snows more when it's colder.
Not when it's warmer.
Which is the reason it's so annoying to hear somebody claim the opposite is true.
No, and it's because physics that we know it can't be true. It's not a matter of opinion.
Quote:
Originally Posted by SFX
I checked (using NY Central Park data) and it's pretty obvious it is temperature, most significantly J-M temperatures. When it is cooling, snow totals go up. When it is warming, snow totals go down (trend). Precipitation shows no trend.
This is true for any period you can use. Warming trends show less snow, cooling trends show more snow. Many other stations (but not all) show the same thing. Of course other quality stations in other states show the exact same thing. Temperature goes down, snow fall goes up.
The expert opinion is based on looking at the data, something anyone can now do with ease.
Quote:
In almost all regions of the United States, temperature during November–March is more highly correlated than precipitation to the occurrence of extreme snowfall years.
"In almost all regions of the US, it is colder temps, not precipitation amounts, that determines the amount of snowfall"
It's also true that for some regions (high altitude regions) it is indeed the amount of precip determines snow amounts, since it is almost always cold enough to snow, so more moisture coming in means more snow. But even then, if it's colder, the same amount of precip is going to turn into "more" snow, because colder temps means dry snow, which is explained in the graphic that clearly shows temperature influences how much snow forms from the amount of precip.
If that is true, and precip trend is still flat, then it means it's getting colder for the boreal winters.
Temperatures and precipitation have been running above 1981-2010 normals this decade (2010-2017). Major winter storms have been occurring with greater frequency, six out of the last eight winters have seen above normal snowfall, five of those winters have seen positive snowfall departures greater than 10 inches.
1981-2010 vs 2010-2017 at NYC’s JFK Airport (my closest wx station)
Mean temp:
Dec - 37.8 vs 40.9 (+3.1) +8.2%
Jan - 32.7 vs 33.2 (+0.5) +1.5%
Feb - 34.9 vs 34.5 (-0.4) -1.1%
Mar - 41.7 vs 42.5 (+0.8) +1.9%
.........36.8 vs 37.8 (+1.0) +2.7%
Precipitation:
Dec - 3.39 vs 4.37 (+0.98) +28.9%
Jan - 3.16 vs 3.42 (+0.26) +8.2%
Feb - 2.59 vs 3.22 (+0.63) +24.3%
Mar - 3.82 vs 4.12 (+0.30) +7.9%
........12.96 vs 15.13 (+2.17) +16.7%
Snowfall:
Dec - 4.2 vs 5.4 (+1.2) +28.6%
Jan - 6.3 vs 12.9 (+6.6) +104.8%
Feb - 8.3 vs 11.4 (+3.1) +37.3%
Mar - 3.5 vs 3.6 (+0.1) +2.9%
........22.3 vs 33.3 (+11.0) +49.3%
*December’s massive temperature leap and February’s slight temperature drop are primarily due to the highly anomalous warmth and cold of Dec 2015 (+12.5°F) and Feb 2015 (-10.4°F), respectively. Data from January and March better reflect the warming trend.
Keep in mind that this is a fairly recent trend, and though it’s been extremely consistent, it isn’t really indicative of any long term climatic changes here. If temperatures continue to warm we’ll eventually reach a point where snowfall amounts will drop considerably.
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