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That map is so wrong. We won't see any upper level engery like that map is showing for my part of FL. That is so far off i could shoot myself. We will have a dead flat upper level pattern all fall and winter and nothing is gonna change.
Way too early to tell. Models have already grossly underestimated cold just based on upstream snow cover...
Try a -6F low temperature for Grand Forks, ND- only November 7th.
It's baaacckkk! I should post this in the Fall thread but I'll just leave this discussion here for now.. November 9-11 Arctic Blast
Quote:
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service New York NY
623 AM EST Wed Nov 8 2017
THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Upper trough associated with polar vortex over Hudson Bay this
eve amplifies as a 110+ kt upper jet on the west side dives
towards the base. This will set up a SW flow aloft across the
northeast resulting in a weak WAA pattern. However, conds appear
to be optimal for radiational cooling and many rural locations
will likely fall to or below the freezing mark. Although the
growing season has already ended across most of these areas,
have issued a freeze warning for coastal CT zones, New Haven,
Middlesex and New London, where it hasn`t ended yet.
Dry weather continues on Thu with the longwave trough and
associated sfc arctic front approaching. The weak WAA will
result in slightly higher temps in the lower to mid 50s with
increasing clouds and onshore flow keeping them in check.
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... ***Arctic blast Friday into Friday Night with Record Cold Possible***
A polar trough digs into the Great Lakes Thursday and then swings into Northern New England as it closes off Friday. This upper low
lifts NE through Eastern Canada for the weekend, with a more zonal
PAC flow returning for the weekend.
At the surface, an arctic front approaches and crosses the region late Thursday Night. A few showers possible in the waa ahead of the
front Thursday Night. High-res models indicating a snow squall line
moving through Western and Central NY, but appears it should
dissipate as it works towards Orange County. Perhaps a snow shower
or flurry for the NW hills late Thursday night.
A modifying arctic high will builds west towards the region Friday into Friday Night. This will bring the first taste of winter temps
on Friday, with temps likely holding in the lower 30s interior to
upper 30s coast city/coast during the day (around 15-20 degrees
below seasonable). Combined with NW winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts
in the 30s...windchills will likely hold in the 20s for the
city/coast and teens across the interior. A hard freeze then likely
for Friday Night, with lows in the teens across the interior and 20s
for the city/coast. This should end the growing season for the entire area. See the climate section below for records.
In so many of the maps posted so far I've been right on the line between warm and cold. Typical.
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I should post this in the Fall thread but I'll just leave this discussion here for now.. November 9-11 Arctic Blast
