February 2015 Arctic Blasts, Coldest Air of Season (farmers, dress, Florida)
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Are they really? So was the GFS right from 1-2 weeks ago ? I didn't follow.
3 things to note with latest discussion for this area...
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
348 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015.
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SKY COVER REMAINS A CHALLENGE. HAVE GONE TO MOSTLY CLEAR/PARTLY
CLOUDY AS MOS GUIDANCE HAS WAY OVER PREDICTED CLOUD COVER FROM THE
START.
THUS WITH THE FRESH SNOW COVER, LIGHT WIND AND THE MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...TEMPS FALL TO AROUND OR JUST BELOW ZERO INLAND AND SINGLE
DIGITS ELSEWHERE. NYC IN THE MID TEENS. THIS IS BELOW MOS - MOS
THINKS IT`S CLOUDY.
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR WEDNESDAY. WAS OPTIMISTIC ON THE CLOUD COVER.
TRUE ARCTIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY EVENING
WITH STRONG CAA IN IT`S WAKE. HAVE SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY WITH
THIS...BUT ALL INDICATIONS ARE FOR LESS THEN AN INCH. SREF MEAN IS
FOR A FEW HUNDREDS OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT AND WORSE CASE IS STILL
LESS THAN A TENTH. MOST OF THE LIGHT ACCUMULATION COMES WITH THE
FROPA WITH FLURRIES AFTER MIDNIGHT.
LOWS BY MORNING...10-15 ABOVE WITH INCREASING WINDS.
SUB 500 DM 1000-500 HPA THICKNESS ADVERT IN THURSDAY MORNING - CAN`T
RECALL THE LAST TIME I`VE SEEN THAT !
Incredibly yes! The updated GFS was very consistent and is now showing 0C 850mb temps down to the South Florida area! Here is the GFS and the accuweather forcast.
I sent the Gray, Maine NWS an email regarding this because it is quite obvious that something is wrong with the equipment at the AWOS.
It turned out today the problem was even worse than Cambium's map showed. Excerpt from today's afternoon CLI for Concord:
Quote:
CDUS41 KGYX 172155
CLICON
CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
455 PM EST TUE FEB 17 2015
...................................
...THE CONCORD NH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR FEBRUARY 17 2015...
VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME.
CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1868 TO 2015
WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
.................................................. ................
TEMPERATURE (F)
TODAY MAXIMUM 35 240 PM 58 1883 35 0 23
MINIMUM 2 529 AM -21 1896 14 -12 -4
AVERAGE 19 25 -6 10
Note the temp records date to 1869 for Concord NH but for ThreadEx only 1903. At Portland ME the reverse situation exists: the CLI reports only use temp records back to 1941 (after the station move to KPWM) but ThreadEx goes back to the 1870's. Mind inquiring about that as well?
It turned out today the problem was even worse than Cambium's map showed. Excerpt from today's afternoon CLI for Concord:
Note the temp records date to 1869 for Concord NH but for ThreadEx only 1903. At Portland ME the reverse situation exists: the CLI reports only use temp records back to 1941 (after the station move to KPWM) but ThreadEx goes back to the 1870's. Mind inquiring about that as well?
I'm not quite sure what you are referring to with your last paragraph. It actually went slightly above my head.
I sent the Gray, Maine NWS an email regarding this because it is quite obvious that something is wrong with the equipment at the AWOS.
I see that Concord temperature.... yeah from my experience at NWS Grand Forks when an ASOS goes very warm like that a fan at the unit needs to be replaced. When we notice this occurs, we have to call AOMC and have them shut off the report processing sensors and a trouble ticket is opened and then relayed to the ET staff. Unless caught in time they can get into the climate database, but it can be removed after the fact by the NWS or NCDC later on.
I see that Concord temperature.... yeah from my experience at NWS Grand Forks when an ASOS goes very warm like that a fan at the unit needs to be replaced. When we notice this occurs, we have to call AOMC and have them shut off the report processing sensors and a trouble ticket is opened and then relayed to the ET staff. Unless caught in time they can get into the climate database, but it can be removed after the fact by the NWS or NCDC later on.
Thank you for that explanation Dan. Hopefully it will get addressed as it appears to have been an issue at Concord for last few days off and on..
Yes, that is quite odd. I will ask them about that as well.
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