Quote:
Originally Posted by Thunder98
Will the Central and Eastern U.S be like a freezer again for a 3rd year in a row or will it be a complete touch like 2011-2012 winter?
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Different factors will be at work this winter. 2011-2 was a weak La Niña winter. Different dynamic. In those winters the Bermuda High is very important.
Quote:
Originally Posted by BullochResident
Depends on how strong/weak the Bermuda/Azores high is.
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Among other factors are the El Niño peaks, and when it peaks. Among super El Niños 1972-3 was a moderately cold, though almost snowless winter, with the Niño peaking around Thanksgiving or a bit earlier. 1982-3 torched through mid-January and we had a historical snowstorm on February 11, after a smaller one the night of February 8 and 9. At that point winter was over, but we did have the latest accumulating snow, in late April. That year the Niño peaked around February or March and, unlike 1973 (or later on 2009-10, which was borderline strong) did not crash rapidly into Niña territory. Ditto 1997-8, which started out cold in November and then torched through much of December, January, February and early March. Niña was also slow to kick in.
So earlier Niño peaks, even during super El Niños don't always lead to torchy winters like 1982-3, 1991-2 and 1997-8. If this Niño stays in moderate to high-end moderate range, it could be very cold and snowy.
There are other factors, such as the Bermuda/Azores high, as mentioned by BullochResident (more of a factor in La Niñas), the strength of the jet stream and the position of the troughing. Too much for a single post.
One other factor, climate change, but Obama should have that covered by this winter. </sarcasm>
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The average temperature for the period was 28.7 F (-1.8 C)!
