February 2015 Arctic Blasts, Coldest Air of Season (compare, windchill, months)
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ORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
320 AM AKST SAT FEB 14 2015
.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH 60 HOURS. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
OVER WEST COAST GETS CUTOFF ON SUNDAY. A PORTION OF THE WESTERN
BERING SEAS HIGH SPLITS OFF AND ROTATES OVER TO PROVIDE AN EXTENSION
INTO THE HIGH ARCTIC OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST COAST
OF THE LOWER 48.
ALL OF THE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL EXTEND INTO THE
HIGH ARCTIC. HOWEVER THE GFS ENSEMBLE INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE WILL REACH THE NORTH POLE BY TUE EVENING.
OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS...TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM OVER
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING. WINDS THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT WILL CONTINUE TO BE AN ADVISORY LEVEL OVER THE
MARINE AREAS. WIND CHILL VALUES WILL WARM OVER THE NEXT 60 HOURS
IN ALL AREAS. A COUPLE OF WEAK SHORT WAVES WILL MOVE NORTH OVER
THE ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LITTLE TO NOT MUCH
EFFECT EXCEPT FOR SOME INCREASED HIGHER CLOUDS NEAR THE ALASKA
RANGE. FURTHER NORTH A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE.
This is just insane. How often is Fairbanks 48F warmer than Boston in February? The latest GFS run has Boston hitting -20F on Tuesday morning, and has Fairbanks dropping to +28F Tuesday morning. That is incredible if it happens.
Does anyone really want to argue that eastern North America doesn't have the highest temp anomalies in winter compared to every single continent on earth?
So, the NAO is positive, the AO is positive, and yet eastern N. America is having 30 to 40F temp anomalies. Oh I forgot about the PNA.
This is why winter in eastern N America stinks if you like stable winter weather. We have three hugely significant teleconnections. How many does China have? Europe? Even when we get a break from the NAO,AO, and SSW, we get hit with the PNA.
And some fool has the guts to argue subtropical paradise. No subtropical paradise would have temp anomalies of 30F.
Looking at our forecast, next Thursday and Friday mornings we will be flirting with single digit temps compared with 20 degree temps Monday morning. We haven't seen temps that low in decades although last year we hit 12 one morning in January.
Most of my lows are below zero. Are you enjoying this weather? I wanted to try to enjoy winter this season rather than wait for it to end. But this season is making it hard. Hard to enjoy long walks in 15°F weather, let alone 5°F.
February has always been our coldest month in Maine. It was 22 below this morning in bright sunshine. No more sunshine for us until Tuesday afternoon. We'll have a blizzard tonight and tomorrow.
Yesterday I walked for 30 minutes in "balmy" temps of 30 degrees.
After 16 years in Houston, and liking the weather there, I am amazed that I find 30 degrees balmy.
But it was quite nice yesterday.
I knew it would be a while before I would be out that long again.
forecast:
temps predicted 1 below to 23 above.
wind chill temp as low as 15 to 20 below zero thru Mon. morning
possible frostbite and hypothermia.
winds northwest 30-40 mph, gusts to 55 mph.
and next week - the whole week- is predicted to be 10 degrees below normal.
Of course "normal" in the days of climate change is debatable.
Scientists predict more winters like this one and like last year's, and worse.
Which is why I'm moving to Albuquerque.
Quote:
Originally Posted by nei
Most of my lows are below zero. Are you enjoying this weather? I wanted to try to enjoy winter this season rather than wait for it to end. But this season is making it hard. Hard to enjoy long walks in 15°F weather, let alone 5°F.
Which forecast would you rather have this week. Our forecast:
Or at the Arctic Circle, 67°N in the middle of Alaska?
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