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cold air coming back in a big way for February. Look out but I hope there is some damn snow with it. We are seriously below normal in the snowfall category here
With the exception of a few days mid December it has been a super mild winter so far here with no change for the near future.
No doubt we will get some cold days before it's all over but all and all quite warm so far.
Some unexpected sleet and freezing drizzle overnight and this morning caught our road crews unprepared. Lots of slideoffs and accidents this morning. Part of I-65 on the southside of Indy was closed for a bit. US 31 is closed all the way around Kokomo about 60 miles north of downtown Indy. Currently 30F with occasionally sleet showers and some freezing drizzle, though surface streets that I took into work didn't seem too bad but I've heard some parts of the city are ice rinks, as noticed on the traffic map I've seen.
You want a weaker Polar Vortex if you want true cold and snow in the mid latitudes. A strong PV just holds steady in the northern Lats. A weak one splits and moves around. Obviously the further south it goes the more extreme cold and snow you get in the Mid Latitudes (and southern Lats if pattern supports).
He mentions the Jet stream dipping over East Asia will send out a pulse and weaken the Vortex.
Then he also mentions the Stratosphere. When the stratosphere suddenly warms (SSW) it has a fundamental impact on the weather pattern. That's physics. It basically disrupts the Polar Vortex.
Here's a look at the current Stratosphere temp.. Record cold early January but past few days it's warmed fast! To near normal now. But not a "major" event yet...
And No coincidence we had Cold & Snowy Feb-March last year
And No coincidence we had Cold & Snowy Feb-March last year
February last year (assuming 2017 is what you are referring to) was record warm - central PA averaged 8.2 above normal. We did have quite the two week cold period in March but the month was only slightly below (1.5) for us. Then April was 6.0 above.
Noticed we had the sort of broken clouds this morning, and being a cold-front looked typical of lake-effect. Here's the cloud pattern. Hmm if it were lake effect the clouds would be streaming on the south and east sides of the lakes, but be less cloudy on the other side. Not the case
Alright so where are the clouds coming from? Map of relative humidity at 925 mb [about 1000 m or 3400 feet]. Looks like much of Canada is saturated; just winter gloom from weak sun? And a NW flow bringing the cold, saturated midlevel air. A clear sky would make the post-coldfront airmass feel much more "arctic". Of course, it isn't really, it's only 32°F or so out. Windy, though.
checking Mt. Washington. You can see it had a much bigger drop; Lapse rates steepen with cool, drier air. Was right around freezing on the summit yesterday while it was pouring rain; now down -1°F (-18°C)
February last year (assuming 2017 is what you are referring to) was record warm - central PA averaged 8.2 above normal. We did have quite the two week cold period in March but the month was only slightly below (1.5) for us. Then April was 6.0 above.
Well that backfired. lol. Why did I think February was cold? OHhh.. Lag time. The sudden warming didn't happen till end of January into February.. Gotta give it a couple of weeks to set in.
And I'm not sure if the PV actually dropped south in Canada but March was below normal in Northeast with well above normal snowfall.
I hate to be one of those that use an excuse for something happening. There's so many factors and pieces out there it's impossible to blame one thing.
cold air coming back in a big way for February. Look out but I hope there is some damn snow with it. We are seriously below normal in the snowfall category here
You guys out east, enjoy the cold! You certainly are due.
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but I hope there is some damn snow with it. We are seriously below normal in the snowfall category here 
