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El Nino (intensity of event) has mixed signals for eastern N America. Stronger events could bring milder temperatures, but the NAO, AO, and other factors can throw longer-range predictions off.
As for next winter in my trough I think it will be colder than last winter with January being the coldest and somewhat below average I think.
But it is just my gut feeling.
NOAA in turn forecasts above average winter temps nearly everywhere in Europe: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...uT2me1Mon.html
Who knows that.
what matter Eastern N.America below average if Canada is Above average?
Apparently the new "normal" is the entire globe will be scorching hot every year, and eastern North America will be entering a new ice age. I'm so sick of that warm blob.
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El Nino (intensity of event) has mixed signals for eastern N America. Stronger events could bring milder temperatures, but the NAO, AO, and other factors can throw longer-range predictions off.
I'm curious how many teleconnections Europe and Asia have? Do they have at least 6 like we do?
NAO being positive meant nothing for us last winter as the PNA dominated and put us in the Arctic freezer in Jan and Feb. Yet Europe, due to positive NAO, was mostly mild all winter.
Those with Accu Pro, watch Paulie P's video today. he discusses the JAMSTEC new update and the change. He mentions it usually "trends" right and the trend has been colder for the Eastern U.S but says too cold for Mid Atlantic.
He also mentions this... His graphic showed it better but the entire U.S is practically surrounded by warmth. More impressive on the Pacific side. (It's more like Ocean Warming, not Global Warming).
but that may set up extremes in the U.S and an interesting scenario since no other year had this setup. Maybe the cold lingers longer because it cant push off the coast as fast? Maybe U.S will be a ball of fire because both sides are just too warm.
Those with Accu Pro, watch Paulie P's video today. he discusses the JAMSTEC new update and the change. He mentions it usually "trends" right and the trend has been colder for the Eastern U.S but says too cold for Mid Atlantic.
He also mentions this... His graphic showed it better but the entire U.S is practically surrounded by warmth. More impressive on the Pacific side. (It's more like Ocean Warming, not Global Warming).
but that may set up extremes in the U.S and an interesting scenario since no other year had this setup. Maybe the cold lingers longer because it cant push off the coast as fast? Maybe U.S will be a ball of fire because both sides are just too warm.
Paul said NCEP site has the map he showed which looked more impressive but both same data.
Not sure what you meant as far as the trending comment, but not true at all as far as the Jamstec trend. Re-look at what they had in May, June and July. It was getting warmer not colder. May was the coldest, and each month their forecast got warmer until just this latest forecast. This is the first flip back to cold for the Jamstec since May, so it is not really accurate to say it has been trending colder. It had been trending warmer. But maybe he is talking about his own trending forecast or others.
I hope the Atlantic doesn't cool much more - that's bad news for us.
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