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Indianapolis had below normal snowfall during strong El Nino years. They only used 3 months but I doubt November or March would change the result much?
Indianapolis had below normal snowfall during strong El Nino years. They only used 3 months but I doubt November or March would change the result much?
Nah using November or March would not have changed the results by much at all, but if this El Nino is a major one than it may also mean Indianapolis may experience a warmer winter than the past two winters given the lack of snowfall which would be expected during a major el nino winter.
Nah using November or March would not have changed the results by much at all, but if this El Nino is a major one than it may also mean Indianapolis may experience a warmer winter than the past two winters given the lack of snowfall which would be expected during a major el nino winter.
I was hoping you would chime in.
I'm going to check moderate Nino years now and how this area did. Maybe I'll graph something this week.
I don't think we will be a strong Nino in the Fall/Winter.
Nah using November or March would not have changed the results by much at all, but if this El Nino is a major one than it may also mean Indianapolis may experience a warmer winter than the past two winters given the lack of snowfall which would be expected during a major el nino winter.
INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. (Aug. 11, 2015)–As meteorologists, we’re always looking at our daily weather but we also try to focus on the overall climate too. ENSO, or El Niño Southern Oscillation, is a global oceanic/atmospheric relationship which impacts the weather across North America. Two phases of ENSO are the El Niño and La Niña. El Niño is the warming of the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean waters while La Niña is the cooling of the east-central equatorial Pacific Ocean waters.
This year the Climate Prediction Center is predicting a 90 percent chance of a strong El Niño. El Niño has been known to lead to warmer and drier than normal conditions across the Midwest during the winter months (Dec-Feb). However it’s important to know that there is variability. Here’s my case in point.
Let’s start with looking at the strong El Niño years in Indianapolis. For the purpose of this article, I used data from Indianapolis International Airport dating back to 1950. Strong El Niño years include 1957-1958, 1965-1966, 1972-1973, 1982-1983 and 1997-1998. In analyzing how much snowfall Indy received during these winters, it can be determined that each of these strong El Niño years produced below-normal snowfall.
Now let’s look at strong La Niña years. These were in 1973-1974, 1975-1976, 1988-1989 and 2010-2011. You can see there is definitely variability here in that only two of the years produced above-normal snowfall in Indy. La Niñas typically lead to cooler and wetter than normal conditions across the Midwest. So it’s important to know that just because a strong El Niño is predicted this winter (Dec-Feb), it doesn’t necessarily guarantee that we’ll have below-normal snowfall. I know what you’re thinking. Wait, what? Even with a strong El Nino, we COULD see above-average snowfall? Yep! Think variability. Cheers to this winter and what it may bring! Follow me on Facebook and Twitter @DanielleDozier for additional weather information. –Danielle Dozier
I'm going to check moderate Nino years now and how this area did. Maybe I'll graph something this week.
I don't think we will be a strong Nino in the Fall/Winter.
So that means
1963-64
1986-87
1987-88
1991-92
2002-03
2009-10
IIRC The winters of 2002-2003 and to a lesser extent 2009-2010 in Indianapolis were drier than average in terms of total precipitation, yet snowfall was above the average of 25.9 Inches, both those winters also were colder than the 30 year averages; though I was not around for the winter of 1991-1992 I was told that it was overall milder and much drier than average in Indianapolis that winter.
Compared to last months update. Entire Eastern U.S changed, Southeast colder.
Kinda scary that it's showing the whole world as scorching hot, except for parts of N America and a few other spots. But if I get to be the cool kid on the block, I ain't complain'...lol.
Compared to last months update. Entire Eastern U.S changed, Southeast colder.
You just might want to take a look at their forecast on 1 June 2015 for JJA. Totally off for SE USA. They had it below normal over a huge swath. And that was on 1 June. They couldn't even get it right that close to the season. July was much above avg in SC, FL, LA, MS. All other states in SE were above average. For example, Columbia SC was 3.5F above avg in June and 3.1F above avg in July.
Even though they could be completely right this winter, they could be off on large areas.
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