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Old 08-12-2015, 02:39 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,746 posts, read 76,346,241 times
Reputation: 16730

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Quote:
Originally Posted by nei View Post
How about consistently in the upper teens to low 30s and lots of snow? So no extreme cold though cold for your area standards. If winter had to be cold, that'd be my ideal.
Yeaahh! Happy with that. Where do I sign?

Problem is..my body adjusts quick to cold so after a couple weeks in the 20s it wont feel "cold" anymore and I wont want 30s for sure and would prefer to stay in the teens only. Happened in February. Upper 20s was feeling warm for me.
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Old 08-12-2015, 02:46 PM
 
Location: South Jersey
14,497 posts, read 9,502,154 times
Reputation: 5251
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
I love summer, but let's be honest, summer is boring compared to winter. If we were getting more thunderstorms I would enjoy more. Been a paltry summer for rain and storms. We are not getting heatwaves or many 90F days (so far 18 days above 90F vs average of 29). My plants need constant watering with this dry weather. It has been a pretty much average summer temp wise and I am enjoying it. Going to the beach most weekends both NJ and in Delaware. Nothing interesting to post.

Winter is more interesting to me cause it is so unstable. I just hope this year it is as average as this summer has been, which you would probably hate.
I have had way more than my fill of thunderstorms. Granted, I would easily opt for zero thunderstorms. But having been without power for more than fifty hours back in June due to one of those pesky things, I feel quite justified in my hatred.
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Old 08-12-2015, 02:55 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,746 posts, read 76,346,241 times
Reputation: 16730
So NWS NY is garbage with how they dont interact with people compared to other NWS offices around the country. With that said...

Check out the back and forth with NWS Caribou and this post...

" It is very early, but I would lean toward a cold winter with best chance of heavier snows Down east."

https://twitter.com/NWSCaribou/statu...27318262964225
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Old 08-12-2015, 04:45 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,746 posts, read 76,346,241 times
Reputation: 16730
Accuweather Winter preview

2015 US Fall Forecast: Fire Danger to Worsen in West; September May Yield Tropical Impact in South



More with link including other locations and Fall stuff and October Snows for Rockies...

Quote:
"In the Northeast, we've seen a couple of really nasty winters and lots of big storms. And that was without El Niño. El Niño can bring lots of moisture. The question is always, is the cold there when the moisture arrives?"

The moisture may transpire as flooding rains for the mid-Atlantic early, until mid- to late-season when it can be cold enough for snowfall in cities such as Philadelphia and New York City.

Overall, however, the heaviest snow of the season will most likely fall north and west of these areas."

As for late fall and into the early winter season, there is an opportunity for a storm track to come to places like Chicago and Indianapolis, according to AccuWeather long-range forecasters.

Mild air will infiltrate the northern Plains into the fall as warmth that has built up over the summer in the Northwest and western Canada spreads eastward.

"This will start in October then come on strong in November. Temperature departures can range anywhere from 3-6 degrees above normal by November," Pastelok said.

Come winter, snowfall for the region is predicted to be below normal.

In the southern Plains, increased rainfall, below-normal temperatures and limited sunshine will define autumn.

"It may not be extremely cold, but it will be rough to get those sunny days that get those temperatures up during the daylight hours," Pastelok said.
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Old 08-12-2015, 09:00 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 14,044,255 times
Reputation: 5898
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Accuweather Winter preview

2015 US Fall Forecast: Fire Danger to Worsen in West; September May Yield Tropical Impact in South



More with link including other locations and Fall stuff and October Snows for Rockies...
If you ask me, Pastolek always talks out of both sides of his mouth. Maybe to cover all the bases so he can never be nailed down on a forecast.

This right here is a prime example of how he does it?

After a bitterly cold winter of 2014-2015, the winter of 2015-2016 will be milder. However, the season will be stormy with near- to above-normal snowfall in the offing for many, which could influence temperatures downward late in the season.

So we are to have a warm start to winter like last year, and then a very cold snowy finish just like last year. His forecast seems like 2014-15 all over again. So he gets warm in there, and cold in there. Very typical meaningless winter forecast. How bout he gives a temp forecast for each month of winter relative to average. He never does that. Bastardi usually does.
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Old 08-12-2015, 09:04 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 14,044,255 times
Reputation: 5898
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Accuweather Winter preview

2015 US Fall Forecast: Fire Danger to Worsen in West; September May Yield Tropical Impact in South



More with link including other locations and Fall stuff and October Snows for Rockies...

Hmm, you left out the part where he said Mid-Atlantic and NE will have a milder winter than 2014-15.
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Old 08-12-2015, 09:57 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,746 posts, read 76,346,241 times
Reputation: 16730
Quote:
Originally Posted by tom77falcons View Post
Hmm, you left out the part where he said Mid-Atlantic and NE will have a milder winter than 2014-15.
Looked for Northeast stuff so paragraph after opened with Northeast.. but guess it can relate. Yeah.. many are saying backend loaded winter again.

Quote:
After a bitterly cold winter of 2014-2015, the winter of 2015-2016 will be milder. However, the season will be stormy with near- to above-normal snowfall in the offing for many, which could influence temperatures downward late in the season
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Old 08-13-2015, 11:55 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,746 posts, read 76,346,241 times
Reputation: 16730
So here's the current SST Anomaly... Their archives only go back to 1996

So I used ESLR to go back into the past..

Now... how the heck do you find analogs with these 3 incredible things happening.

First off... someone throw ice cubes into the pacific cause IT IS ON FIRE!

Second... The North Atlantic is Brrrr COLD!

Third.... If High Pressure sets up over the Pacific.. Low pressure over the North Atlantic.. Guess where the other High will set up.. SouthEast. Not a good spot for Eastern U.S Cold!

But forget that for a sec..... Lets find an August that looks like this....



YOU CAN'T!!! You can only come close and 1957 matches the best... See it? Cold North Atlantic. Hot El Nino, Hot North Pacific.




Guess what happened in 1957 Winter? December was WARM! BUT ...... The winter ended up below normal because January and ESPECIALLY February was brutally cold.

So this is why you might here some folks banking on a backend winter again. Because it matches an analog versus the current SST's
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Old 08-13-2015, 02:30 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 14,044,255 times
Reputation: 5898
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
So here's the current SST Anomaly... Their archives only go back to 1996

So I used ESLR to go back into the past..

Now... how the heck do you find analogs with these 3 incredible things happening.

First off... someone throw ice cubes into the pacific cause IT IS ON FIRE!

Second... The North Atlantic is Brrrr COLD!

Third.... If High Pressure sets up over the Pacific.. Low pressure over the North Atlantic.. Guess where the other High will set up.. SouthEast. Not a good spot for Eastern U.S Cold!

But forget that for a sec..... Lets find an August that looks like this....



YOU CAN'T!!! You can only come close and 1957 matches the best... See it? Cold North Atlantic. Hot El Nino, Hot North Pacific.




Guess what happened in 1957 Winter? December was WARM! BUT ...... The winter ended up below normal because January and ESPECIALLY February was brutally cold.

So this is why you might here some folks banking on a backend winter again. Because it matches an analog versus the current SST's
Great post. Yes I have been looking at 1958 Jan and Feb and you are right. Very cold for us in Philly, but even colder in the SE.
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Old 08-13-2015, 02:54 PM
 
Location: Broward County, FL
16,191 posts, read 11,450,582 times
Reputation: 3530
Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
So here's the current SST Anomaly... Their archives only go back to 1996

So I used ESLR to go back into the past..

Now... how the heck do you find analogs with these 3 incredible things happening.

First off... someone throw ice cubes into the pacific cause IT IS ON FIRE!

Second... The North Atlantic is Brrrr COLD!

Third.... If High Pressure sets up over the Pacific.. Low pressure over the North Atlantic.. Guess where the other High will set up.. SouthEast. Not a good spot for Eastern U.S Cold!

But forget that for a sec..... Lets find an August that looks like this....



YOU CAN'T!!! You can only come close and 1957 matches the best... See it? Cold North Atlantic. Hot El Nino, Hot North Pacific.




Guess what happened in 1957 Winter? December was WARM! BUT ...... The winter ended up below normal because January and ESPECIALLY February was brutally cold.

So this is why you might here some folks banking on a backend winter again. Because it matches an analog versus the current SST's
I think I may postpone my road trip for January or February if that's the case.
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