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Old 08-16-2014, 09:49 AM
 
Location: London, UK
9,962 posts, read 12,398,229 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by irlinit View Post
Especially when the temperature is about 4C.. it feels cold, just the worst type of weather possible
Oh god only in Britain...
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Old 08-16-2014, 03:28 PM
 
29,569 posts, read 19,677,898 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cambium View Post
Bastardi posted this.... Fall/witer Jamstec versus his seasonal forecast issued to clients 3 months ago


https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/s...671360/photo/1
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Old 08-17-2014, 07:43 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,574 posts, read 75,534,036 times
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Great Read on El Nino's impact for certain regions. It's either going to be a weak Nino or LaNada (Neutral) IMO

PDF File. http://www.ess.uci.edu/~yu/PDF/YU.et.al.GRL.2012.pdf
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Old 08-17-2014, 07:46 AM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
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Rob G from LiveWeatherBlogs write up

El Nino Watch & Update 2014-2015 (It could be big


Winter 2014 (What to Expect)
--Near Normal temps in the Midwest and East, warmer in the Southeast.
--Cooler in the Southwest and West Coast, Snowy weather in the West & Mid Atlantic

Analog years he's following

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Old 08-21-2014, 09:50 AM
 
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Here is Bastardi's prelim witner forecast plus precip

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Old 08-21-2014, 09:57 AM
 
Location: Singapore
3,341 posts, read 5,566,348 times
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Always the east coast bias...
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Old 08-21-2014, 01:10 PM
 
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Quote:
ALMANAC PREDICTS COLDER WINTER, HOTTER SUMMER
BY RIK STEVENS
ASSOCIATED PRESS


CONCORD, N.H. (AP) -- The Old Farmer's Almanac, the familiar, 223-year-old chronicler of climate, folksy advice and fun facts, is predicting a colder winter and warmer summer for much of the nation.

Published Wednesday, the New Hampshire-based almanac predicts a "super-cold" winter in the eastern two-thirds of the country. The west will remain a little bit warmer than normal.

"Colder is just almost too familiar a term," Editor Janice Stillman said. "Think of it as a refriger-nation."

More bad news for those who can't stand snow: Most of the Northeast is expected to get more snowfall than normal, though it will be below normal in New England.

Before unpacking the parka, however, remember that "colder than average" is still only about 2 to 5 degrees difference.

Some other regional highlights:

- Florida's winter could be rainier than most years while other locales in the Southeast and central states will see less rain.

- Summer will be warmer than usual in most places while a drop in rainf
News from The Associated Press
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Old 08-21-2014, 02:10 PM
 
Location: Mid Atlantic USA
12,623 posts, read 13,955,985 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chicagogeorge View Post
Here is Bastardi's prelim witner forecast plus precip

That looks like his prediction for winter 2014. This is winter 2015 coming up.
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Old 08-21-2014, 02:30 PM
 
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^^

I know it says 2014, but in his Saturday summary video he states that's it's this upcoming winter forecast that was issued in March 2014

Here it is (10min in)

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-...august-16-2014

Last edited by chicagogeorge; 08-21-2014 at 02:39 PM..
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Old 08-21-2014, 02:31 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,574 posts, read 75,534,036 times
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Many folks, kids and sources are going by the now. In regards to winter forecast. That's never a good way to do it since weather and patterns change.

Many sources(official) and good mets use analogs. For instance we will have a weak El Nino coming up so which winters did we have that? But doesn't stop there.. qbo should be easterly so which winters matched with weak Nino with warm PDO and low sunspots, Ect. Analogs help see percentages and go by that. Plus some personal thoughts too.

However, because we don't have enough records there's a lot of mixes that havent happened.

.if pattern changes by November, watch the winter forecasts change with it.

Right now its a better odd to favor cool and snowy east
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