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It's funny how the NYC area always manages to end up on the below average side of things when it comes to winter predictions. I've never seen a milder than normal winter prediction, even though there's a 50% it'll happen lol.
Here's 11-12 and start of 13-14 predictions. I was bummed when they came out with it. LOL
What, nobody likes the CFS update today? LOL I bet tomorrow it's all blue. LOL
I pay it no mind as it has jumped all over the place. Don't forget how we are last in accuracy lol. I usually take the opposite of what they say. Believe last year they called for warmth all winter. Yeah right .
"This chart shows we still think the Winter will be colder than average for the U.S. overall but not the epic cold some are forecasting."
"Temperatures up first. This map is color-coded to show the change in temperatures vs last year with lines to show where temperatures will be above average (northern tier of the U.S.), average (middle U.S.) and below average (southern part of the U.S., due in large part to much wetter conditions keeping daytime temperatures relatively colder). Obviously even the warmest temperatures in North Dakota are colder than Texas so everything is relative to your specific area.
An example on how to read the map - in the Dakotas it's much warmer than last year and warmer than average. In New Jersey it's likely to be warmer than last year but still below average."
"The national trends suggests much of the snowy conditions are going to shift West this year so that will help keep the snowfall +6% above average nationally but still 8% less than last year."
"When you add it all up from November 2014 to March 2015 here's what we see. In areas like the Great Lakes we see below average snowfall that is 60% less than last year with a split flow jet stream making the South soggy with the polar jet spending much more time in Canada this year where it belongs!!! With an active southern jet stream we are very concerned about a couple major ice storms from Texas to New York City. Near wt360 Headquarters in Bethlehem, PA we had 24 snow events last year which is off the charts in terms of frequency of events.
This year closer to 10 events with many more rain storms, couple ice storms and two storms over 6" but not 24 storms this year!!!"
Lol, so these bragging guys at WeatherTrends expect us to believe their winter forecast, when they can't even predict 8 days in advance.
Check out this blog they wrote 8 days before this Labor Day holiday weekend. They called for the 3rd coldest Labor Day weekend in years.
I'd rather look at analogs then forecasts. Even though one relates to the other at least I'm looking at weather that has happened rather than weather that could happen.
I guess we shouldn't believe the CFS showing a clipper snowstorm evening of December 1st. LOL!!!
Freezing line at 850 down to DC. Apps would get nice accumulations with this setup. Storm moves from Great Lakes off the coast of Maine and pushes the trough down.
It feels 90F here right now at 11am and I'm itching and stretching to see maps like this instead. We can "fantasize" cant we? LOL
I guess we shouldn't believe the CFS showing a clipper snowstorm evening of December 1st. LOL!!!
Freezing line at 850 down to DC. Apps would get nice accumulations with this setup. Storm moves from Great Lakes off the coast of Maine and pushes the trough down.
It feels 90F here right now at 11am and I'm itching and stretching to see maps like this instead. We can "fantasize" cant we? LOL
Ah, a classic start to december . I would like the line to dip down here. Admittedly, Atlanta residents act funny in snow.
All I can expect here is 50 F highs and cold rain for december 1st, with southerners whining "ITS TOO COLD".
I'd rather look at analogs then forecasts. Even though one relates to the other at least I'm looking at weather that has happened rather than weather that could happen.
But it is fun to read predictions.
So Camb, I emailed them and asked how they could be so off for Labor Day. Got an immediate response which I really appreciate. They seem genuine.
I looked up a place like Chicago, where they called for really cool conditions, and Chicago was above normal the entire weekend by a lot. So they seem a little off there. Chicago was 8F, 7, 7 and 7F above normal for the 4 days starting Friday, August 29th. Their pre Labor Day blog had Chicgao as the center of the cold. Me thinks they are doing a little spinning by saying it still ended up cold. I don't know how you can count positive anomalies as cold. Notice that the coolest Labor Day in five years is still above average lol, and they were calling for "below average".
Here is what they had to say about Labor Day in their email to me today:
Hey Tom,
Good morning. It ended up the coolest Labor Day in 5 years nationally but you’re correct it was much warmer than we thought. In part Hurricane Cristobal slowed down the pattern a bit. But as you do recall – Friday morning before Labor Day was the 2ND coldest in decades here in the East with near record cold Friday morning (see second chart below). Thanks for being a fan – we’re posting our September outlook now on facebook/blog.
LABOR DAY WEEKEND (29TH – 1ST) NATIONAL TEMP TRENDS
LEHIGH VALLEY PA LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY AM – 2ND COLDEST IN HISTORY
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I bet tomorrow it's all blue. LOL
. I would like the line to dip down here. Admittedly, Atlanta residents act funny in snow.
