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Our coldest month that winter was December with 37/22F. That winter had a colder December, but Jan and Feb were certainly warmer than this past one, and not much snow.
So far I am loving what the forecasts are saying...but I know things can change too, but I still have my fingers crossed for a snowy cold mid-atlantic winter.(well as cold and snowy as mid atlantic winters can get)! I know this is not Alaska!
Our coldest month that winter was December with 37/22F. That winter had a colder December, but Jan and Feb were certainly warmer than this past one, and not much snow.
We had a white Christmas that year. Temps plummeted Christmas Eve Eve(Dec 23, 1959) to single digits here after the snowstorm on the 22nd. I believe it dropped to 30s in Florida.
Jan-Feb looked warm at times.... but March 3, 1960 big snowstorm South Carolina to Boston. Biggest snow month for here that whole winter.
Philly and Bridgeport ended up with same amount of snow that winter. 21.6"/21.8"
We had a white Christmas that year. Temps plummeted Christmas Eve Eve(Dec 23, 1959) to single digits here after the snowstorm on the 22nd. I believe it dropped to 30s in Florida.
Jan-Feb looked warm at times.... but March 3, 1960 big snowstorm South Carolina to Boston. Biggest snow month for here that whole winter.
Philly and Bridgeport ended up with same amount of snow that winter. 21.6"/21.8"
That would be wrong. I meant winter of 58 to 59. If you read the link you would notice that. In that winter we managed 5" of snow lol. I love it. A snowless slightly below avg winter. No big freezes in the South that year either, but temps were slightly below average.
Here you go, winter of 58-59, and btw, this guy is a cold lover going by his blogs, and he nailed last winter better than Bastardi.
Btw, that winter Philly got a pathetic 5" of snow. Your winter averages were as follows
Dec 35/20
Jan 36/22
Feb 37/21
and you got a paltry 14" of snow. Was a bone dry winter according to Andrew (blogger).
And your all time winter low that year occurred in early Feb was 5F, lol. Warmer than Philly got this past winter. Even Bastardi is acknowledging this winter will not be as bad as last as the analogs he is using are 2003-04 and 09-10.
From his blog:
For the first time, an analog year has matched all five of my parameters for the upcoming winter season, and is now indicating that the upcoming winter could be another rough one. - See more at: The Weather Centre
Let's break this all down. The winter of 1958-1959 matched five out of five parameters I set forth that indicate what this winter will look like. For instance, it is expected that the winter of 2014-2015 will see a positive PDO, and the winter of 1958-1959 had that as well. Such a comparison happened, successfully, four other times. It's quite rare to find an analog as similar to projected conditions as this one, and we can only hope that the similarities stick as we head into fall. - See more at: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/#sthash.bziImPay.dpuf
Bottom line, he is predicting another rough one, but not anywhere near as rough as this past one. Our all time low last winter was 4F. The lowest in 58-59, given the colder averages then, and lack of warmup that has occurred since in the arctic, was 9f. I doubt very much we will get to 9F this winter, if we match perfectly with 58-59, give the increased urbanization and overall warming that has taken place in global temps, particularly in the arctic. The Artic clearly doesn't have the same punch it does not that it did in 1959, and you know it.
BTW, even Bastardi is acknowledging this winter will not be as bad as last as the analogs he is using are 2003-04 and 09-10. If he starts using 77-79 then we are in trouble here. But he stopped using those a while ago. He seems to be sticking now with 02-03 and 09-10. While they were cold, they were not as bad as last that is for sure.
That would be wrong. I meant winter of 58 to 59. If you read the link you would notice that. In that winter we managed 5" of snow lol. I love it. A snowless slightly below avg winter. No big freezes in the South that year either, but temps were slightly below average.
Here you go, winter of 58-59, and btw, this guy is a cold lover going by his blogs, and he nailed last winter better than Bastardi.
It was correct for the year I was talking about. Some of us aren't in front of a PC all the time and I don't click links with phone too much.(slow)
Yeah, 1958-59 wasn't a snowy year here but not the least at all. 14th snowless winter. You realize 14" is only 14" away from normal. LOL (50% less snow is not bone dry)
March 12, 1959 there was a snowstorm Ohio Valley down to NYC to Maine. Philly was the south most border. I got half foot in that one.
Did you see the graphic???
Guess what... 1958-59 winter was colder than the 1959-60 one I mentioned. LMAO!!
6th Coldest Winter on record for this area (since 1948). Love it.
It was correct for the year I was talking about. Some of us aren't in front of a PC all the time and I don't click links with phone too much.(slow)
Yeah, 1958-59 wasn't a snowy year here but not the least at all. 14th snowless winter. You realize 14" is only 14" away from normal. LOL (50% less snow is not bone dry)
March 12, 1959 there was a snowstorm Ohio Valley down to NYC to Maine. Philly was the south most border. I got half foot in that one.
Did you see the graphic???
Guess what... 1958-59 winter was colder than the 1959-60 one I mentioned. LMAO!!
6th Coldest Winter on record for this area (since 1948). Love it.
Philly it was 24th coldest and that's since 1874.
Boston 19th coldest since 1872
Pittsburgh 12th coldest since 1875.
Colder than this past winter.
Music to me
No snow, and monthly anomalies were no where near as large as this past winter. I'll take it. You were hoping for much colder and you know it. 24th coldest, big deal. Not even in the top ten.
No snow, and monthly anomalies were no where near as large as this past winter. I'll take it.
Seasonal forecasting doesn't work like that. Even when you can correctly discern the general pattern, the magnitude of the cold/warmth ranges from vague to wild guesswork. 2011-12 and 2013-14 are good examples; even among the forecasts that correctly predicted a warm/cold winter, virtually none got the magnitude of the anomalies right. Even in 2012-13 most of the few forecasts that predicted a back-loaded winter missed the timing on how back-loaded it was. Analogues are useless for predicting the magnitude of patterns, since no two winters display the same or even similar anomalies over three months of time. As an example, even if a pattern similar to 1958-59 develops your winter could end up as mild as the 40th coldest or as cold as the 10th coldest, depending on timing and magnitude of week-to-week weather. Even if it was otherwise identical to 1958-59 (which real weather never is), if the center of the cold anomaly was just 100 miles further south or north the outcome would be quite different for your area.
The best that seasonal forecasting can do is predict the general pattern such as cold/wet east, whether it will be front-loaded or back-loaded, and how strong the signal is for these patterns; just how cold, wet, warm, dry, front-loaded, or back-loaded it will be can't be predicted with any precision.
Quote:
You were hoping for much colder and you know it. 24th coldest, big deal. Not even in the top ten.
I believe he was referring to his area (where it was in the top ten), not to Philadelphia (where it was not). The 1958-59 pattern looks like what has been referred to as a "gradient winter", where the far north of the country was very cold and snowy with anomalies decreasing as one moves southward, leading to a greater than normal north-south winter gradient. Of course, the coming winter may (in my view likely) bear no resemblance to 1958-59 at all - this is just one early forecast among many with a diverse array of conclusions and analogues, most of which for what it's worth (which isn't much) predict cold/snowy reaching much further south than it did in 1958-59.
So in short, focus on the general pattern suggested by the analogues and early signs in autumn - that has far more predictive value than haggling over details in an analogue, because even if the pattern is identical (which it never is) the weather will not be.
No snow, and monthly anomalies were no where near as large as this past winter. I'll take it. You were hoping for much colder and you know it. 24th coldest, big deal. Not even in the top ten.
That would be wrong. I meant winter of 58 to 59. If you read the link you would notice that. In that winter we managed 5" of snow lol. I love it. A snowless slightly below avg winter. No big freezes in the South that year either, but temps were slightly below average.
Here you go, winter of 58-59, and btw, this guy is a cold lover going by his blogs, and he nailed last winter better than Bastardi.
Btw, that winter Philly got a pathetic 5" of snow. Your winter averages were as follows
Dec 35/20
Jan 36/22
Feb 37/21
and you got a paltry 14" of snow. Was a bone dry winter according to Andrew (blogger).
Raleigh got 13.5 inches of snow that winter, and the temperature fell to single digits 4 times. So it was a good winter for us.
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Love it.
