COVID 19 stats - ALLEGHENY COUNTY and beyond (Penn: dangerous, barber)

[PghYinzer]

Originally Posted by Knepper3

If the rest of the country is moving in a direction we are not I am pretty sure that is a clear indication we are missing something. This isnt a case of if everyone jumped of a bridge would you follow. You are talking about 49 other states with access to the same information all coming to the same conclusion. Again I am not saying we are there right now but "Everyone else" are following the same experts.
As for a 2nd wave? I expect this to be an annual thing honestly. Why would we think this will act different than the flu? There will likely be a vaccine, who knows how effective it will be and you know there will be people that do not get it. There is ZERO reason to think it would be worse than the 1st wave, in fact there is every indication it would be MUCH less. The first wave went undetected for some time and everyone was slow to react. Now this is on everyone's radar and response is in place to react. Its actively being monitored so if somewhere did have a large cluster you can expect a quick/immediate response.

Are the other states following the same experts? How do we know that? They have access to the same information but doesn't mean they are using it.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by PghYinzer

Are the other states following the same experts? How do we know that? They have access to the same information but doesn't mean they are using it.

How many experts are there, and why wouldn’t they be following the same experts?

Why wouldn’t they be using the same info?

[WhoIsStanwix?]

I am really confused about the current direction of this thread (have been for a while, actually). Is Pennsylvania somehow a major outlier in terms of how the state is managing the gradual relaxing of restrictions on business and movement? I sort of see PA as being in the middle to maybe a bit more restrictive and slower than average, but they aren't some kind of obscene outlier.

The approach the US has taken here is to allow each state to effectively run its own experiment with its own rules. The federal government has loosely provided data, guidelines, and direct assistance for fighting the pandemic. The feds have also provided broad tools to prop up the economy on a temporary basis. For better or worse, this state-by-state approach will provide some interesting data to use to assess the effectiveness of various strategies and may also give epidemiologists and other scientists data that may prove helpful for the current wave of this pandemic, any future waves, or even future pandemics. Ditto goes for the economists and others who are studying the impact to the economy.

This is not the first pandemic humanity has seen and it certainly will not be the last. We can't really take score in the second inning of game 1 and extrapolate that to the winner of the world series. I don't know why we'd do that here, either.

[Knepper3]

Originally Posted by SteelCityRising

I think everyone is so worried about the second wave of COVID-19 because the second wave of the Spanish Flu in 1918 was very severe.

Understood but completely different era and resources. People (experts included) had a very limited medical knowledge. They were actively selling radioactic water as an energy drink.

[Knepper3]

Originally Posted by WhoIsStanwix?

I am really confused about the current direction of this thread (have been for a while, actually). Is Pennsylvania somehow a major outlier in terms of how the state is managing the gradual relaxing of restrictions on business and movement? I sort of see PA as being in the middle to maybe a bit more restrictive and slower than average, but they aren't some kind of obscene outlier.

The approach the US has taken here is to allow each state to effectively run its own experiment with its own rules. The federal government has loosely provided data, guidelines, and direct assistance for fighting the pandemic. The feds have also provided broad tools to prop up the economy on a temporary basis. For better or worse, this state-by-state approach will provide some interesting data to use to assess the effectiveness of various strategies and may also give epidemiologists and other scientists data that may prove helpful for the current wave of this pandemic, any future waves, or even future pandemics. Ditto goes for the economists and others who are studying the impact to the economy.

This is not the first pandemic humanity has seen and it certainly will not be the last. We can't really take score in the second inning of game 1 and extrapolate that to the winner of the world series. I don't know why we'd do that here, either.

Agree, that is why I said we were not at that point yet for dining. We were at that point for many industries, basically every state in the union said Real Estate was essential and could be conducted with certain safety measures. Wolf literally just said it is essential and can resume even in red counties. Nothing has changed in Red counties so for him to allow them now to me means he realized he screwed that up but hey at least he did something 2 months later.

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by WhoIsStanwix?

I am really confused about the current direction of this thread (have been for a while, actually). Is Pennsylvania somehow a major outlier in terms of how the state is managing the gradual relaxing of restrictions on business and movement? I sort of see PA as being in the middle to maybe a bit more restrictive and slower than average, but they aren't some kind of obscene outlier.

The approach the US has taken here is to allow each state to effectively run its own experiment with its own rules. The federal government has loosely provided data, guidelines, and direct assistance for fighting the pandemic. The feds have also provided broad tools to prop up the economy on a temporary basis. For better or worse, this state-by-state approach will provide some interesting data to use to assess the effectiveness of various strategies and may also give epidemiologists and other scientists data that may prove helpful for the current wave of this pandemic, any future waves, or even future pandemics. Ditto goes for the economists and others who are studying the impact to the economy.

This is not the first pandemic humanity has seen and it certainly will not be the last. We can't really take score in the second inning of game 1 and extrapolate that to the winner of the world series. I don't know why we'd do that here, either.

When one sets standards and the standards are met, and one doesn’t follow through on what one said after that, questions arise.

At what point does a virus with a 90+% survival rate keep a country shut down causing an economic collapse?

If masks work, why do we need shutdowns?

What % of essential workers have contracted the virus?

Are you still working? Are you still getting paid? Do you own a business?

[erieguy]

Originally Posted by Knepper3

Agree, that is why I said we were not at that point yet for dining. We were at that point for many industries, basically every state in the union said Real Estate was essential and could be conducted with certain safety measures. Wolf literally just said it is essential and can resume even in red counties. Nothing has changed in Red counties so for him to allow them now to me means he realized he screwed that up but hey at least he did something 2 months later.

He definitely screwed up and I’d wager heavily pressure is the only reason he did something about it.

[WhoIsStanwix?]

Originally Posted by erieguy

When one sets standards and the standards are met, and one doesn’t follow through on what one said after that, questions arise.

At what point does a virus with a 90+% survival rate keep a country shut down causing an economic collapse?

If masks work, why do we need shutdowns?

What % of essential workers have contracted the virus?

Are you still working? Are you still getting paid? Do you own a business?

Full transparency - yes I own a business, and yes I am still getting paid. My parents also own a business and are doing ok, but not as great as I am.

I guess my whole point is why even ask these questions right now? They're the right questions to ask when you're evaluating in the rear view mirror, but you can't evaluate a moderate misstep with any clear lens until you have enough data to determine whether the decision itself was right or wrong. Even then, there may not be appropriate data to make a solid evaluation that doesn't have big error bars around it. Believe it or not, I actually assess the financial implications of health interventions (on smaller scale) for a living.

Look - we are in an unprecedented situation. The downside risk to doing nothing was (and still seemingly is) huge, given the unknowns. The impact to individual economic situations is also unprecedented. It is a financial disaster for many, though it doesn't have to be with the right kind of help and the right interventions. However, the ability to produce air, clean water, and food didn't just evaporate. The velocity of money, however, slowed considerably and that has left a bunch of people very confused and unsure where to go.

But the divisiveness, the anger for leaders of all political walks, the "you're wrong! NO, YOU'RE WRONG!!!" approach, this stuff is just tiring and discouraging. There is literally zero benefit to finger pointing, and every benefit to focusing energy on helping our neighbors, developing pragmatic solutions, and working to convince others in a way that resonates with them that there is a better way, if you firmly believe that. Last I checked, most marketing professionals don't advocate yelling at potential customers telling them that they need your product, so why does the desire to convince others of their ideology, political or otherwise, seem to always take that form?

[prnlvsxy]

Originally Posted by Knepper3

If the rest of the country is moving in a direction we are not I am pretty sure that is a clear indication we are missing something. This isnt a case of if everyone jumped of a bridge would you follow. You are talking about 49 other states with access to the same information all coming to the same conclusion. Again I am not saying we are there right now but "Everyone else" are following the same experts.

In what way do you think PA is an outlier to all 49 other states in this regard?

Originally Posted by Knepper3

As for a 2nd wave? I expect this to be an annual thing honestly. Why would we think this will act different than the flu?

Because the mortality rate is substantially higher than the flu.
[according to Johns Hopkins , among many many others - https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/heal...019-vs-the-flu ]

[erieguy]

WhoisStanwix?, No surprise there. I’d wager if you were shut down and/or didn’t get SBA assistance you’d feel differently.

How far in the rear mirror do you want? 0 cases?

Didn’t Wolf set standards and then still not open when the standards were met?

When does a virus with a 90+% survival rate dictate crashing the country’s economy?

Last I checked, the Constitution takes precedence, but anyone that wants to stay home certainly has that right, and if/when the “free stuff” ran out they’d be ready to go out.

Again, depending on the outcome of the election, I fully expect to see everything green or a continued fight against it.