Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Reading: pediatricians, similar, condition)

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by redplum33

https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00432.asp


"Distributed via the CDC Health Alert Network
May 14, 2020, 4:45 PM ET
CDCHAN-00432

Summary
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is providing 1) background information on several cases of a recently reported multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); and 2) a case definition for this syndrome. CDC recommends healthcare providers report any patient who meets the case definition to local, state, and territorial health departments to enhance knowledge of risk factors, pathogenesis, clinical course, and treatment of this syndrome."

https://www.aappublications.org/news...ammatory051420

While potentially serious, he [Sean T. O'Leary, M.D., M.P.H., FAAP, a member of the AAP Committee on Infectious Diseases] emphasized MIS-C appears to be rare, and most cases of COVID-19 in children are asymptomatic or mild.

This warning, while serious, is about a rare condition that they are trying to warn physicians to look for so they can properly treat.

“I think right now the most important thing is supportive care in an intensive care setting,” he said. “Pediatric intensive care doctors know how to take care of sick children very well and they know how to manage the things that are happening with these kids like low blood pressure and in some cases difficulty breathing, (and) in some cases kidney failure. They’re used to managing those types of conditions even though this is a new phenomenon.

The virus passed through China and Italy before they've passed through here. Both those places reported low fatalities for children. And yes, again, we will never have enough data on anything. It's possible there is some affliction that kills 95% of infected patients 12 months after infection, or 100% two years after. We don't know, we haven't waited that long. It's also possible that everything blue in the world will turn green next St. Patrick's day. At some point you run into the problem of induction.

That's not to say the virus isn't dangerous or we can just do whatever we want with kids. When dealing with a crisis, it's just as important not to overreact as it is not to underreact. That means drawing meaningful conclusions from limited data and recognizing that extreme safety has other costs.

I like to use the analogy (with my wife, the only adult of spoken with in person in over two months) of speed limits. We know that lowering the speed limit saves lives. If we factory-installed all cars to have a maximum speed of 5 mph, we could virtually eliminate traffic fatalities. That's about 35000 people per year in the US. We don't set the speed limits that low, despite the clear safety benefit, because people prefer getting places faster than a really brisk walking pace. Conversely, modern automobiles can easily do 100 mph or faster, and despite the convenience of that speed, we generally don't let cars go that fast, either. There is a tolerable risk range.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by redplum33

https://emergency.cdc.gov/han/2020/han00432.asp


"Distributed via the CDC Health Alert Network
May 14, 2020, 4:45 PM ET
CDCHAN-00432

Summary
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is providing 1) background information on several cases of a recently reported multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children (MIS-C) associated with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19); and 2) a case definition for this syndrome. CDC recommends healthcare providers report any patient who meets the case definition to local, state, and territorial health departments to enhance knowledge of risk factors, pathogenesis, clinical course, and treatment of this syndrome."

"Several" cases. Not several hundred. Not several thousand. Several.

[cb2008]

Our landscaper has lost all his employees. He now works alone. He said his partner was getting 1400 a month in unemployment and so quit and is staying at home.
Something seriously wrong here. This was was a stimulus plan that had bipartisan support.
Unemployment is way higher in the US than in other European countries. The money was sent directly to the business owners. Had my landscaper got that he would be employing 3 people.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by cb2008

Our landscaper has lost all his employees. He now works alone. He said his partner was getting 1400 a month in unemployment and so quit and is staying at home.
Something seriously wrong here. This was was a stimulus plan that had bipartisan support.

Did you mean a week? A month isn't much at all.

Even with that, the extra $600 only lasts four months

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

https://www.aappublications.org/news...ammatory051420



This warning, while serious, is about a rare condition that they are trying to warn physicians to look for so they can properly treat.



The virus passed through China and Italy before they've passed through here. Both those places reported low fatalities for children. And yes, again, we will never have enough data on anything. It's possible there is some affliction that kills 95% of infected patients 12 months after infection, or 100% two years after. We don't know, we haven't waited that long. It's also possible that everything blue in the world will turn green next St. Patrick's day. At some point you run into the problem of induction.

That's not to say the virus isn't dangerous or we can just do whatever we want with kids. When dealing with a crisis, it's just as important not to overreact as it is not to underreact. That means drawing meaningful conclusions from limited data and recognizing that extreme safety has other costs.

I like to use the analogy (with my wife, the only adult of spoken with in person in over two months) of speed limits. We know that lowering the speed limit saves lives. If we factory-installed all cars to have a maximum speed of 5 mph, we could virtually eliminate traffic fatalities. That's about 35000 people per year in the US. We don't set the speed limits that low, despite the clear safety benefit, because people prefer getting places faster than a really brisk walking pace. Conversely, modern automobiles can easily do 100 mph or faster, and despite the convenience of that speed, we generally don't let cars go that fast, either. There is a tolerable risk range.

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

"Several" cases. Not several hundred. Not several thousand. Several.

This has been on every news broadcast (local and national) for the past 2 days. Often the lead story.

19 states now. There's 100+ cases in NY.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by redplum33

This has been on every news broadcast (local and national) for the past 2 days. Often the lead story.

19 states now. There's 100+ cases in NY.

So do we trust what the CDC is saying or the fact that it is newsworthy. Look at all of those news articles, it's almost always cited as "rare".

More US children ill from rare syndrome with possible link to coronavirus

Coronavirus: Children affected by rare Kawasaki-like disease

Doctors in Italy make a link between Covid-19 and rare 'Kawasaki-like' inflammatory disease in children

I'm not trying to deny that the syndrome is real or that it isn't important to know about. It's just important not overstate the danger. The evidence is that this is a rare syndrome. You get to pull the fire alarm once, maybe twice, without a real fire before people start ignoring the fire alarm. There is already social distancing fatigue.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by redplum33

This has been on every news broadcast (local and national) for the past 2 days. Often the lead story.

19 states now. There's 100+ cases in NY.

So not even half of the states.

ALL the experts are saying it's not common. I'm sorry. If you want to be terrified, go ahead. But you are just reading too much news that is saying the same unscientific thing over and over and over.

Just wondering, do you know the typical occurrence of Kawasaki-type symptoms year over year? Or are you not interested in finding out?

This is all ludicrously post-hoc.

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

This is a bit different than believing that the Fed can just "print" money for 18+ months to float the economy. That is a brutally naive assumption, IMO, and what Timberland and Bjimmy are choking on.

Ya the value of that money will go down. If The goverment gives everyone 1200 dollars then the buying power of that 1200 dollars is not 1200 dollars its more like 800. The more money you print the more the value of that money goes down.

Its not so much prices goes up its more that the value of the dollar goes down.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

So not even half of the states.

ALL the experts are saying it's not common. I'm sorry. If you want to be terrified, go ahead. But you are just reading too much news that is saying the same unscientific thing over and over and over.

Just wondering, do you know the typical occurrence of Kawasaki-type symptoms year over year? Or are you not interested in finding out?

This is all ludicrously post-hoc.

Dude, people are just finding out about it. And who is terrified?

No idea what's going on with you guys...trying to bury this info.

Watch the numbers increase.

[roadstrailstris]

https://www.wired.com/story/the-case...Oe41zSCjB9i0f8