Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Florida: resources, originally, loud)

[Bridge781]

My boss is an MD who doesn’t say much but he said if everyone is going back to restaurants then this isn’t going to work. I did go to a restaurant over the weekend, sat outside, wasn’t near anyone and it seemed to be pretty safe.

[porterhouse]

Is your boss an virologist? Only some people are are going back to restaurants, not everyone, so perhaps it will work.

[Bridge781]

Feels to me like everyone is. I was down the cape this past week and it feel as crowded as ever.

[charolastra00]

I don't know anyone willing to eat indoors at this point, and very few people who will eat outside. That doesn't mean they don't exist, just not in my social circle or among my coworkers. If things felt busy on the Cape, that's because lots of people are trying to get into limited outdoor seating. And people who are willing to travel during a pandemic are probably less cautious on the whole.



I think it will be self-selecting. People who are highest risk due to age or health concerns are not likely to be the first to eat in a restaurant. That's a good thing.



Also keep in mind that our community spread is the lowest it has probably been since early March, with an estimated 800-1600 actually getting sick each day (both asymptomatic and symptomatic) based on our low number of positive tests and very low positive rate. Our contact tracing team is able to trace 100% of our current positive cases within 48 hours - the gold standard. It's not enough for me to feel comfortable, but we are in just about as good of shape as we can be sans the virus just disappearing overnight.



I'm a lot more comfortable with people going out to eat in Massachusetts than in Georgia, Florida, SC, or Arizona. A college friend just opened a restaurant in SC and while I want to be happy for him, I couldn't believe seeing photos of a packed restaurant (no 6 feet distance, no skipped tabled or bar chairs) and absolutely zero masks on any of the staff or people up walking around. There were photos of him going table to table to greet everyone - no mask. That wouldn't fly here - not for a second.

[redplum33]

Originally Posted by charolastra00

Our contact tracing team is able to trace 100% of our current positive cases within 48 hours - the gold standard.

Not exactly. That 100% is simply based on a model that requires the state to have 5 contact tracers for every new positive case. All it actually means is that the state has enough people to call the contacts that they know of.

There is absolutely no way they are tracing anywhere even close to 100%. The only people they can call are the people who are known to the person who tested positive.

If the newly tested positive person was at a BLM rally, he/she could have infected 100+ people. Unlikely that the person knows the names of more than a handful of them. The state won't be able to call the others.

And this is why getting everybody to use a contact tracing app is the key to keeping this virus under control. The state would be able to call all of those strangers that the newly tested positive person may have infected.

[charolastra00]

Originally Posted by redplum33

Not exactly. That 100% is simply based on a model that requires the state to have 5 contact tracers for every new positive case. All it actually means is that the state has enough people to call the contacts that they know of.

There is absolutely no way they are tracing anywhere even close to 100%. The only people they can call are the people who are known to the person who tested positive.

If the newly tested positive person was at a BLM rally, he/she could have infected 100+ people. Unlikely that the person knows the names of more than a handful of them. The state won't be able to call the others.

And this is why getting everybody to use a contact tracing app is the key to keeping this virus under control. The state would be able to call all of those strangers that the newly tested positive person may have infected.

Fair point.



We're never going to get a true 100% unless we have a contact tracing app. Unfortunately, Americans aren't going to go for that.



What contact tracing will do is be able to contact the staff and patrons at a restaurant you went to, the staff and patrons of a salon you went to, your workplace, etc. It's not going to help with more passing transactions with huge groups of people like a protest or grocery store. That's yet another reason why it's so important that everyone wears masks.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by charolastra00

We're never going to get a true 100% unless we have a contact tracing app. Unfortunately, Americans aren't going to go for that.

I'd download and install an app if we had one. However, you're right that American's won't go for it. Frankly, most places won't. Singapore's failed to meet target downloads by a huge margin and that's a country that's far more tolerant of government intervention than the U.S. Rhode Island is well below their target for the app to be successful. It's not just about "Americans going for it" either. Many people fall into the following buckets:

• Don't have smart phone
• Don't have a smart phone that's current enough to support the app functionality
• Don't know how/are unwilling to learn how to set up the phone for contract tracing to be able to work.
• Don't take their smart phone everywhere with them (i.e. it sits in the center console as they walk around the grocery store, or sits at home as they go for a walk)

[mdovell]

Not to be construed as an ad but John Hopkins University did put up a coronavirus class on coursera. I'm nearly half done and recommend it.

[yesmaybe]

7 day moving average of percent positive is down to 1.9%.

Still wondering about a spike on the Cape.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

7 day moving average of percent positive is down to 1.9%.

Still wondering about a spike on the Cape.

Nantucket just reported their first case in months.