Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston: underground, eligible, assistance)

[rach5]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

The "curves" for fatalities in AZ, TX, FL, are flat. Texas is a massive state that registers fewer deaths a day than Massachusetts.

Did anyone look into what these allegedly surging statistics might be? I posted some thoughts earlier, I see those were promptly ignored.

Why is all "bad news" immediately believed without question, but "good news" denied? Every time.

Why are so many other places in the world not concerned as much? Is it really ridiculous to question how stats are taken and recorded? It has always been a cluster to keep track of what these metrics mean and then when they change midstream. It's shocking how little curiosity you guys on here have about all this.

Other places in the world are more concerned! Think Victoria in Australia: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-h...-idUSKBN23R09G
Australia's most populous state - over 6 million inhabitants - had 25 cases on Saturday. And what do they do? They "reimposed a limit of five people visiting households and 10 people at public gatherings" until mid-July, down from 20 (only 20 ?!). And Beijing shut down entire neighborhoods, cancelled many flights etc, testing over 1 million people in less than a week, in an outbreak of less than 200 people so far (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/19/w...a-beijing.html). Meanwhile, my state RI, with a bit over 1 million inhabitants, had 68 positive just on Friday, they are planning to go to Phase 3 on July 1st, with "Indoor social gatherings: 50 to 75 people; Outdoor social gatherings: 75 to 150 people". Good luck to us! And RI is not the most reckless state out there, far from it. So - many places in the world are much more concerned...

[htfdcolt]

Massachusetts under Charlie Baker has achieved the lowest COVID-19 transmission rate in the US (0.71; if you want to see the latest, click on this link: https://rt.live/ )

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

The "curves" for fatalities in AZ, TX, FL, are flat. Texas is a massive state that registers fewer deaths a day than Massachusetts.

Did anyone look into what these allegedly surging statistics might be? I posted some thoughts earlier, I see those were promptly ignored.

Why is all "bad news" immediately believed without question, but "good news" denied? Every time.

Why are so many other places in the world not concerned as much? Is it really ridiculous to question how stats are taken and recorded? It has always been a cluster to keep track of what these metrics mean and then when they change midstream. It's shocking how little curiosity you guys on here have about all this.

Largely because other posters on here are aware that downward trends do not diminish the reality that reputable serology studies are suggesting an average IFR .65-1% depending on the level of care. And a whopping 5.6% for 65+. It remains far more deadly than the flu.

I personally find it difficult to cheer trends down on limited migration ... particularly when hospitalizations are up in the many of the full open states.

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Largely because other posters on here are aware that downward trends do not diminish the reality that reputable serology studies are suggesting an average IFR .65-1% depending on the level of care. And a whopping 5.6% for 65+. It remains far more deadly than the flu.

I personally find it difficult to cheer trends down on limited migration ... particularly when hospitalizations are up in the many of the full open states.

I take a glance at The Villages in Florida occasionally. 100,000 old people and fairly dense. The biggest Trump concentration on the planet. They were mandatory masks until the end of May and still “masks requested” with most retail businesses still requiring them. They’ve kept the transmission rate low using the basics: hand hygiene, some distancing, and mask usage. In Geezer-Land, the vast majority are aware of their high risk and have taken the appropriate community health steps despite the Trump signs on the lawn. They totally ignored the “it’s just the flu” rhetoric.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by htfdcolt

Massachusetts under Charlie Baker has achieved the lowest COVID-19 transmission rate in the US (0.71; if you want to see the latest, click on this link: https://rt.live/ )

Thanks for sharing, that's interesting data.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

Thanks for sharing, that's interesting data.

P.S. While I agree that Baker has done a good job in management and communications, I think the people also deserve some credit for the low transmission rate in Mass. Even the best guidance and regulations won't be effective if people are running around saying "It's a hoax! It's a conspiracy! It's a Communist takeover!" and refuse to comply. Most Mass residents anyway, are susceptible to a reasoned appeal to them.

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by Shrewsburried

Largely because other posters on here are aware that downward trends do not diminish the reality that reputable serology studies are suggesting an average IFR .65-1% depending on the level of care. And a whopping 5.6% for 65+. It remains far more deadly than the flu.

I personally find it difficult to cheer trends down on limited migration ... particularly when hospitalizations are up in the many of the full open states.

IFR = infection fatality rate for those who (like me) don’t know the acronyms.

The converse of the rapid rise in mortality with age is the rapid decline with youth. From 40-49 the IFR is 0.04%, from 30-39 it is 0.01%, and likely even lower below 30. Given that the population that needs to worry doesn’t typically need to work and the population that needs to work doesn’t typically need to worry, it’s probably worth considering an age-adjusted approach for future restrictions and lockdowns.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1....15.20067074v3

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

Given that the population that needs to worry doesn’t typically need to work and the population that needs to work doesn’t typically need to worry, it’s probably worth considering an age-adjusted approach for future restrictions and lockdowns.

Aaah. So all people age 50+ have a 7 figure household net worth and don't need to worry about being out of the workforce for a few years.


$1 million household net worth at age 60 including home equity is 80th percentile. The vast majority of people in the > 1% COVID-19 mortality risk bracket between age 50 and 65 would be totally screwed if they couldn't work. It's not like most people can retire early with a generous public sector pension.

[BostonMike7]

Simple solution. Everyone under age 50 who heads off to work simply send a portion of their paycheck to everyone over 50 who should stay home so we can get on with out lives. People over 50 are expendable anyway.


(This is sarcasm btw)

[yesmaybe]

Given that the protests and riots didn't do much, gotta figure that MA has some amount of herd immunity going on.