Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Adams: job, kids, surgeon)

[bizcuit]

Apparently there are two reported cases at the Northampton hospital now.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by in_newengland

First death in CT today. An elderly man who had been in assisted living. This happened down in the part of CT that's adjacent to NYC, that's where most of the cases are coming from in CT. NYC is a real hot spot for this disease.

Western MA is also a hotspot. A number of serious cases in that region, specifically Springfield area

Looks like there is a large cluster forming with an epicenter around the NYC area.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by lrfox

My father got tested yesterday. Won’t get results for at least 7 days. His symptoms are mild now, and he’s at home. There’s no way they’re testing for antibodies now. We asked - I traveled frequently to Europe in Dec/Jan/Feb and exhibited symptoms in Jan.

Glad to hear.

My mother-in-law is stable, but still at ICU. Hoping to see improvement in the next few days. Apparently we are in the peak period of the disease. Day #11


And the bottleneck is now not just getting the testing done, but getting results. Day #4 without results here. A coworker was tested yesterday and told up to 2 weeks. Priority is given to first responders, medical staff, and people in serious shape.

They are also advising those with minor symptoms or no symptoms to not get tested right now. SO there are many more cases that won't get reflected. That brings up a great point made to Trump yesterday where a reporter asked why was it average people were having difficulty getting tests, but rich asymptomatic people (NBA players specifically) were getting tested.

[porterhouse]

I sincerely hope the government and medical community are in an all out race to get rapid and widely available testing up and running. There seems to be growing consensus that testing and tracking must be a key component in controlling this virus.

[Bridge781]

Well testing is important but a cure is what is needed.

[porterhouse]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

Well testing is important but a cure is what is needed.

Unless there is a near miracle, a cure (i.e. vaccine) is still a ways off. Anti virals could offer more near term hope, but still weeks/months away in a best scenario. I don't think human nature can sustained being locked down until then. Testing must be a priority in controlling this in the short term.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Glad to hear.

My mother-in-law is stable, but still at ICU. Hoping to see improvement in the next few days. Apparently we are in the peak period of the disease. Day #11


And the bottleneck is now not just getting the testing done, but getting results. Day #4 without results here. A coworker was tested yesterday and told up to 2 weeks. Priority is given to first responders, medical staff, and people in serious shape.

They are also advising those with minor symptoms or no symptoms to not get tested right now. SO there are many more cases that won't get reflected. That brings up a great point made to Trump yesterday where a reporter asked why was it average people were having difficulty getting tests, but rich asymptomatic people (NBA players specifically) were getting tested.

I'm glad she's stable and I hope you see improvement soon. It's amazing how much time there is between potential infection - first symptoms - peak period - improvement of symptoms - recovered. 6 weeks or more, and contagious the whole time. That's a lot of potential spreading.

The results are what we're struggling with as well. The testing was less of a problem - he's a 70 year old Vietnam Vet. with symptoms that match and a recent travel history (as well as direct contact with others who have traveled abroad recently - my sister and myself) so they got him in for a test with little trouble. But they repeatedly said that the results could take a week or more. They're not going to bother testing the rest of us because we're not showing symptoms. Even if he tests positive, if we're not showing symptoms, we likely wont' get tested unless we suddenly receive a glut of tests and labs start processing them faster.

I think it's pretty clear that there are problems with how we're conducting testing. It does seem like priorities are off. I'm near CHA Somerville Hospital which has a drive through testing center. But instead of simply testing the most likely cases, you have to jump through hoops - you have to be a current patient with CHA, you have to contact your PCP and go over your symptoms (you can easily lie) and get the OK from them. Oh, and you have to drive (you can't walk up), which isn't the case for many in this area. I'm feeling pretty grim about what this absolute bungling of the testing is going to mean for the spread of this over the next few weeks or more.

[Bridge781]

How exactly is testing going to control this? People who are getting tested already have symptoms and are out and about. They’ll be told to quarantine but they’ve already spread the germs around. This isn’t going away. It’s spread, We need to accept that. Italy is now doing an extended lockdown.

[porterhouse]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

How exactly is testing going to control this?

It's going to have to be a combo of testing, tracking and distancing. It can be tough to find reliable information in the sea of politicized garbage out there. Even the experts are still forming hypotheses based on the rapidly changing information available.

This thread (less than 24 hr old) lays out a compelling case for testing. I think the time to read the entire thread (19 tweets) is well spent:

https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1240444821593944064

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

How exactly is testing going to control this? People who are getting tested already have symptoms and are out and about. They’ll be told to quarantine but they’ve already spread the germs around. This isn’t going away. It’s spread, We need to accept that. Italy is now doing an extended lockdown.

It's not a problem just because it's spreading, but because it's spreading so fast. And this is spreading so fast because it's brand new (nobody has immunities/antibodies), and people with mild symptoms or no symptoms at all are spreading it unaware that they're even carrying it. Even people who eventually have serious cases, carry it for a while before presenting with symptoms. Testing everyone fast allows even asymptomatic individuals to stay out of the public and drastically slow the spread. This is what happened in S. Korea and this is why recoveries are outpacing new cases. It allowed the healthcare system to keep up and prevented the spread from getting out of control. No testing allows asymptomatic people to spread at will (unwittingly) and causes the new cases to bubble up faster than the healthcare system can handle. This is what's happening in Italy. We're trending closer to Italy at the moment, but I'm still hopeful that even without testing, our social distancing will help slow it a bit. We'll see.