Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Florida: Amtrak, Lutheran, acceptance)

[tribecavsbrowns]

Originally Posted by justyouraveragetenant

I will post numbers here on two different places in the world. One is michigan which has a total lockdown and one is Sweden which has no lockdown.

Michigan : population 9.8 million people

Sweden population 10.2 million people

Ohio: population 11.7 million

Michigan: population density 177 per sq mi

Sweden: population density 64 per sq mi

Ohio: population density 282 per sq mi

Michigan two major urban areas Detriot , Lansing

Sweden :two major urban areas Stolkholm ,Gothenburg

Ohio: three major urban areas: Cleveland, Columbus, Cincinnati

Michigan was in total lockdown

Sweden No lockdown (many restrictive measures taken, though)

Ohio: Stay-at-home order, same as Michigan (neither one can accurately be called a total lockdown)

Michigan: total covid cases 38,210....... 3,407 deaths

Sweden Total covid cases 19,621...............2,355 deaths

Ohio: 799 deaths...total cases are irrelevant because they're so dependent on testing, but Ohio has 16,128

Whats going on I thought lockdowns or shutdown what ever you want to call them work? Worked for Ohio. Can't speak to Michigan. My guess is a larger "base" of infections before the stay-at-home order, preponderance of underlying health conditions in the city of Detroit, and probably a fair amount of bad luck.

you make the decision

I took these numbers yesturday.

I added Ohio. See above.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by tribecavsbrowns

I added Ohio. See above.

From what I remember OH was one of the first states to close schools and initiate a stay-at-home order, and wisely did so before things got too out of hand. MI waited too long. NY waited too long.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by massnative71

Sweden cannot be compared to countries like Italy and Spain where the virus got an early foothold (in the same way North Dakota can't be compared to New York). But yeah I agree, they are doing something right over there although it's unclear just what yet.

Sweden also made a lot of the social distancing/isolation steps voluntary and put it on the people to follow them. In large part, the people did. They've fared better than MA (where it's becoming clearer that the virus also got an early foothold), but they similarly avoided labeling steps as "order" or "lockdown" and are putting the faith in people to do the right thing.

The NYT covered Sweden a bit this week. I think they're a model to look to for when we begin to reopen. They haven't gone as far as the U.S. (and other countries) have with shuttering businesses and borders (though they have banned large gatherings, closed museums, and canceled sporting events), and it appears that entrusting people and businesses to be cognizant and social distance is keeping the spread manageable. Moreover, about 26% of Stockholm's population has contracted the virus over the past several months. That's a big step towards hopefully reducing the impact of secondary spikes through herd immunity.

But you're right in that the initial measures are not comparable. It's more and more likely that COVID-19 was already widespread here in MA and in NYC before we started taking real steps to limit transmission. Based on that, what we're experiencing now is basically inevitable. Had we taken similar steps to Sweden in early/mid-February, we might have been able to to manage the spread similar to Sweden without taking the drastic steps we've taken now. The small silver lining in all of this is that if the studies coming out indicating that this is more widespread than initially thought are true, we're better off in the long term in terms of herd immunity and reducing the impact of secondary spikes.

[massnative71]

Originally Posted by lrfox

Sweden also made a lot of the social distancing/isolation steps voluntary and put it on the people to follow them. In large part, the people did. They've fared better than MA (where it's becoming clearer that the virus also got an early foothold), but they similarly avoided labeling steps as "order" or "lockdown" and are putting the faith in people to do the right thing.

The NYT covered Sweden a bit this week. I think they're a model to look to for when we begin to reopen. They haven't gone as far as the U.S. (and other countries) have with shuttering businesses and borders (though they have banned large gatherings, closed museums, and canceled sporting events), and it appears that entrusting people and businesses to be cognizant and social distance is keeping the spread manageable. Moreover, about 26% of Stockholm's population has contracted the virus over the past several months. That's a big step towards hopefully reducing the impact of secondary spikes through herd immunity.

But you're right in that the initial measures are not comparable. It's more and more likely that COVID-19 was already widespread here in MA and in NYC before we started taking real steps to limit transmission. Based on that, what we're experiencing now is basically inevitable. Had we taken similar steps to Sweden in early/mid-February, we might have been able to to manage the spread similar to Sweden without taking the drastic steps we've taken now. The small silver lining in all of this is that if the studies coming out indicating that this is more widespread than initially thought are true, we're better off in the long term in terms of herd immunity and reducing the impact of secondary spikes.

There are cultural reasons why I don't see similar voluntary steps being effective in the USA (just like it wouldn't in Italy). Maybe in some place like Minnesota, North Dakota or perhaps rural Maine; but certainly not in heavily populated multicultural states like MA, NY, FL, TX, CA...

[mdovell]

Sweden is a hard country to compair given their lack of immigration. The fact of the matter is hypertension, smoking, drugs, pregnancy, legal drugs and obesity all contribute to getting this for pre existing conditions. When people are all the same it makes it a bit easier to provide services. Once a place does it can attract those that need them. Let's say you have an apartment complex with hundreds of people. That's probably going to require a few elevators which then attracts those with less mobility to go up and down stairs vs someone that rents out a second floor bedroom. Economy of scale is a factor here. Being an American we don't always get that people can't go to other countries as easily and even then you might not become one of "them".

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Too early to compare. Looking at Sweden's daily cases, it looks like they are still on the upswing of their curve, while Michigan appears to be on the backside.

For one, The Model predicts that Michigan is past peak and on the decline

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...erica/michigan

While Sweden is still 25 days or so away from peak and has 4X more predicted fatalities.

https://covid19.healthdata.org/sweden


Yes, I realize these models have been heavily doubted, change daily, and may be way off from the truth, but my main point here is we need to wait until a point further in the future to look back debate what was the proper response and what was excessive.

Ya I agree we need to see what the final numbers are in a year to be more accurate. You would think though with no lockdown Sweden should have way more cases then Michigan. This is only one snap shot but we need to look at this in a year or 10 months at least. Even if Sweden ended up having 1 thousand more I would say thats not statistically significant. However Swedens health care system is not burdened or bogged down. they have universal health care.

[brightdoglover]

[quote=mdovell;57976740]Sweden is a hard country to compair given their lack of immigration. .../QUOTE]

I haven't seen any Swedish numbers for the relatively large number of refugees they have in the country, a different culture(s), family living in larger numbers, more young kids.

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by mdovell

Sweden is a hard country to compair given their lack of immigration. The fact of the matter is hypertension, smoking, drugs, pregnancy, legal drugs and obesity all contribute to getting this for pre existing conditions. When people are all the same it makes it a bit easier to provide services. Once a place does it can attract those that need them. Let's say you have an apartment complex with hundreds of people. That's probably going to require a few elevators which then attracts those with less mobility to go up and down stairs vs someone that rents out a second floor bedroom. Economy of scale is a factor here. Being an American we don't always get that people can't go to other countries as easily and even then you might not become one of "them".

Do they have lack of immigration I heard by 2040 Sweden will be mostly muslim. Swedens nursing homes are much bigger then denmarks which could indicate higher numbers also.

[Bridge781]

So does anyone think this will be extended past May 18th? It feels like the worst is over.

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by NewfieMama

I find Sweden to be a success story: they had minimal closures (a few schools, large events, and I believe restrictions around senior centers), their death rate is 22/100,000, which is lower than Italy, Spain, and U.K., data suggest the curve has flattened and the health care system has not been overwhelmed at any point, and they are getting closer to herd immunity so that they aren't so worried about any future "waves" the way countries in lockdown or with more regulations are since they don't have to devise an exit strategy.

I know others keep comparing Sweden to its neighbors, who are all in a lockdown, but I agree with one of the doctors in a CNN article about Sweden:

"And as long as the healthcare system reasonably can cope with and give good care to the ones that need care, it's not clear that having the cases later in time is better."

Ya either way their economy will not take a hit as much as other countries by staying open.