Coronavirus in Massachusetts (unemployment, construction, homeschooling)

[Robert5]

US H1N1 virus=12,000 deaths.
US Typical flu season = 30,000 deaths
US vehicle deaths per year= 36,000 deaths

From a strictly death standpoint it does seem to be greatly overblown. However there are claims of significant long terM adverse health impacts of having the virus, and that treatment of the virus is very resource intensive. It may turn out those claims are exaggerated, or not. The problem I have is So much of the data that is available I find suspect.

At least the media isn’t talking about school shootings, less than 20 deaths per year.

[OutdoorLover]

Originally Posted by leavingma

and so far the death rate in the us from this is .02%, so yes slightly higher cause we don't have an immunization from it. I think the average death age is around 80. Don't get me wrong, i'm not taking that lightly, but elderly are always at risk from the flu and other illness.

I get the containment thing at first, but at what point is that not going to work and we need to let this take its course. Just make sure the people with health problems are the ones that go to the hospital and not those with healthy immune systems. I really believe we are delaying the fact many will end up with this either this year or in future years.

100 * (85/4661)= 1.8%

[LeavingMA]

Originally Posted by btownboss4

In Lombardy there is a 9% fatality rate. The rest of Italy it’s 2-3%. Italy is what happens when containment works to some extent. Imagine if they did nothing.

That’s what happens when you let it “run it’s course” in Hubei it was like 7%.

So then the discussion goes, can we even contain it. I don't think we can, and we haven't. So we are going to have to deal with it eventually. Either now or in the near future.

[grad_student200]

Originally Posted by matrix5k

I feel like everyone should be required to take an intro to microbiology course at a community college before they make comments like this.

1) The flu is seasonal and it's been around for centuries. We know flu season will end in the spring.
2) There is a flu vaccine. If there were no vaccine, the flu would be much more serious.
3) We don't know when coronavirus will go away. It is summer in Australia and there is an outbreak there. Iran is warm and there is an outbreak there. This may never go away. There is no vaccine yet.
4) The coronavirus numbers are heavily underreported. Read this article. The CDC has yet to confirm the first case at the epicenter of the outbreak in New Jersey: https://www.roi-nj.com/2020/03/14/op...irus-outbreak/
5) If you think 3% of the population dying is not a big deal then I don't know what to say. Google says Boston's population is 685,094. 3% of that is 20,552 dead people. No big deal right?

This is not the flu. If anything it is closer to the Spanish Flu.

I studied clinical epidemiology in graduate school. That department puts a big focus on statistical methods and study designs: case control, cohort, RCT, cross-sectional, etc.
http://www.columbia.edu/~cjd11/charl...anStudiesI.pdf

The problem is that there are hidden variables in the current studies that are still being revealed. There is a growth of "data points" throughout the world such that the calculations are dynamic. There also has to be corrections for (1) confounding, (2) selection bias, and (3) observational bias. The number of "about 3% mortality" does not reflect regional variations. One recent article noted that South Korea had a mortality rate of less than 1%. There are many scientists who postulate that the number of infected is grossly underestimated. Hence, the true mortality rate may be far less than 3%. About a year from now, after all the research publications are done with massive peer reviews, objective scrutiny, and some level of containment, the actual number may be more accurately reflected. At that point, there will likely be variations of "morbidity and mortality" depending on geography, age group, additional high risk factors (e.g. smoking, obesity), stress factors (divorce, loss of job, etc) that can all impact the stress hormones and reduce immunity.

In the field, epidemiologists are analyzing the data to the extent possible with new information coming in everyday. The true mortality rate is most likely inaccurate but will be more well understood later in the near future. The epidemiologists usually use clinical SAS software for their studies. Or they may use a programming language like "R" or python. The vaccines will need to go through clinical trials too which are underway. Hopefully, that will get done quickly.

[simplexsimon]

Originally Posted by Bridge781

It also seems like all these companies that have shut down and forced workers to work from home expect business to continue as usual. It’s not. People are preoccupied with coronavirus. I had two deals (not big ones) fall through because of coronavirus. There’s no way business has been just marching on as usual in many industries the past few weeks nor will it in the weeks to come.

How do you define business as usual? The stock market’s reflected the anticipated decline in demand.

[tovarisch]

Blame POOOOOOT. Right.

[bjimmy24]

Let's grant that the flu is deadlier and more widespread. There are still a couple issues. 1) This isn't over and we don't know exactly how it will progress from here. This is a huge difference vs the flu, a known quantity. 2) It's not like we decided "hey guys we have been doing the seasonal flu for a while, why don't we switch that out for coronavirus this year?" No, we have the flu AND this new thing we don't really know about. We still have all our flu hospitalizations. Now we get to do those, plus coronavirus hospitalizations. Hospital beds and personnel can be easily strained like this. Then factor in all the other people that might need a hospital visit during these times, they won't be as easily accessible. Could be a lot of "indirect" casualties of coronavirus this way. This is why we need to make sure we don't get overrun, like has happened elsewhere in the world. Severe action is needed up front to prevent the worst.

That being said, this strategy better work. I can easily see unrest if we pass the month point and these measures are still in place. All these people without jobs or severely cut back hours, regardless of whatever unemployment benefits states might come up with, are going to be on drugs. I think increased crime could happen, especially as it coincides with warmer weather.

[Ralph_Kirk]

Originally Posted by Axxlrod

Perspective people.

This virus has a 97% survival rate. 97 people out of 100 that contract the virus ill recover just fine, and 3 people out of the 100 will die, and those 3 will be elderly and/or immuno-compromised. In other words, not much different than the seasonal flu.

Does the govt shut down the economy and schools every winter due to the flu?

Social-distancing is fine; just turn of the news and stop the hysteria.

Apparently, another significant percentage of survivors are not "just fine," but suffer enduring or permanent lung damage.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by Ralph_Kirk

Apparently, another significant percentage of survivors are not "just fine," but suffer enduring or permanent lung damage.

Kidney and testicular damage as well. Those organs are high in ACE2 along with the lungs.

[mdovell]

Originally Posted by simplexsimon

How do you define business as usual? The stock market’s reflected the anticipated decline in demand.

Not quite. The swings in the marketplace can largely be accounted to Consumer investors rather than large institutions. A test of this will be on Thursday and Friday when the options markets close the third Thursday of each month is when the puts and calls options end.

Much of the market can be driven by algorithms that don't necessarily look at corollary factors it's largely an if then else scenario.

Companies that have no physical product cnd continue to operate as their Leverage is more balanced than those that have physical products.