Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Washington: car, health care, rated)

[GeoffD]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

You could have shut down all flights from China. Detaining people isn't going to fly though.

And the result is shutting down the whole country, stock market collapse, and probably a painful recession. Which do you think is the better choice?

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by jayrandom

I don't accept it because it's unlikely. It's not important, except that you're going to convince someone who had a similar sickness that they've had this sickness and they're going to think themselves immune. You seem to be under the impression that I have to believe you unless I have strong proof that you're wrong. That's not how it works. You are asking us to believe:

1. COVID-19 enters the general population, probably somewhere in central China.
2. It travels, undetected, around the entire globe, to a region with minimal connections to China and infects you, but manages to not start killing people in Massachusetts.
3. Having travelled around the world, undetected, the virus decides that it's going to start noticeably effecting one small region of China. Lots of people get sick, lots of (especially old) people start dying.
4. Officials finally start tracking infections and they spread, slowly across the planet, spreading first to places with close contact to China, in a somewhat orderly fashion.
5. Despite the fact that it's already widespread enough to have effected you in Massachusetts, regions that don't quickly limit interpersonal contact suffer severe outbreaks as well and lots of old people start dying.

I agree that nobody should assume they had it. I certainly agree they shouldn't be convincing others that they have had it. That misinformation is dangerous for reasons that should be obvious.

That said, it really isn't out of the realm of possibility and there are flaws with your logic:

1. We know it was discovered among the general population (specifically Wuhan) in December 2019 at the latest.
2. MA, is not "minimally connected" to Wuhan. Not only is there connectivity with Boston and Wuhan's tech industries, but many university students (and professors) from Wuhan attend schools in the Boston area. Given the timeline, there was likely a good deal of overlap between people being in infected Wuhan, and people traveling to Boston. Initially, we thought it wasn't very contagious. Which is part of the reason the response has been so relaxed until very recently. We were wrong, it's very contagious. Still, the first confirmed case in MA was over a month and a half ago.
3. Again, it began in Wuhan in December. Potentially earlier, but conservatively speaking, we know December for sure. And plenty of people were getting sick and dying during that time - we just didn't (and still don't) know if it's connected to Covid-19. The symptoms are not all that unusual and without knowledge of Covid, most people with moderate symptoms wouldn't think it anything more than a flu. The more serious and deadly cases would result in severe respiratory infection and possibly pneumonia, which again, is not atypical in older people or people with compromised immune systems. Nearly 50,000 people die of pneumonia in the U.S. each year. Most of them older, and most of the infections are secondary (result of a flu, severe cold, etc.). So unless the numbers were staggeringly high (which they still aren't, even after identifying, testing for, and treating Covid-19), nobody would connect it to a new virus.
4. We've only very recently begun targeted testing in earnest. Until that point, there was no way to know whether an outbreak was occurring. Our data now is only a result of recent testing and all experts are fairly certain it's far more widespread than the numbers indicate. Ohio's public health department estimates over 100,000 in Ohio. The doctor treating the first case in Washington says he's convinced its already traveled far and wide in the U.S. It's not unrealistic to think there are plenty who have had it and recovered right here in MA.

But still, given how severe this can be, it's obviously not a good idea to assume you've had it. Or at least don't act on the assumption you've had it. That opens the door for infecting yourself (if you're wrong) and others.

[porterhouse]

Originally Posted by redplum33

Hoboken, NJ (right next to NYC) is imposing an overnight curfew. 10:00pm to 5:00am.

It's actually now statewide in NJ (8pm to 5am)

[lrfox]

Also, my father is being tested tomorrow. I saw him last week and I've been asked to follow quarantine protocols at home - so has my brother, mother, and my girlfriend. I'll share whatever info I get here.

[timberline742]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

And the result is shutting down the whole country, stock market collapse, and probably a painful recession. Which do you think is the better choice?

The problem with anti science /anti govermment types is that if the efforts work and losses are minimized, they'll say. "See, it was all overblown!"

And if it doesn't work, they'll say "see, all that damage to the economy and personal freedoms for nothing".

Its how they "think". No logic. No hypothesis testing. The reality is it will be years of research before we really have a comprehensive public health analysis of this pandemic. Until then, we have to follow the advice of the public health professionals that study this for a living. Too bad we can't do that for all the threats we face...

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by lrfox

Also, my father is being tested tomorrow. I saw him last week and I've been asked to follow quarantine protocols at home - so has my brother, mother, and my girlfriend. I'll share whatever info I get here.

Good luck to your fam.

My relative has been admitted into the ICU. No preexisting conditions. Very healthy 60 year old


This has been anything but "just the flu" as many have said repeatedly.

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

Good luck to your fam.

My relative has been admitted into the ICU. No preexisting conditions. Very healthy 60 year old


This has been anything but "just the flu" as many have said repeatedly.

Thanks, I wish them the best. That's what we're concerned with regarding my father - very healthy 70 year old.

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by GeoffD

And the result is shutting down the whole country, stock market collapse, and probably a painful recession. Which do you think is the better choice?

You can't just shut down the entire airspace every time there's a pandemic in a foreign country. It'd be way too disruptive.

[massnative71]

It thrives in the 30-50 degree latitude, basically all of NE.


https://www.accuweather.com/en/healt...st-says/700800


"Higher temperatures affect survival of new coronavirus, pathologist says"

[brightdoglover]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

You can't just shut down the entire airspace every time there's a pandemic in a foreign country. It'd be way too disruptive.

By definition, a "pandemic" is not just "in a foreign country."

It's here now, that's for sure.