Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Belmont, Littleton: cheapest, ride, parent)

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by RBThescot

I'm sure you meant "role" or were you thinking jelly roll, roll of flab, roast beef on a bulky roll?

If you're offering to start correcting everyone's small typos (and that one is minuscule), please count me out.

Originally Posted by OutdoorLover

For what it's worth, I have also recently received my masks and gloves and wear them when going into stores now. I figure I might as well do my part and we may well soon be mandated to do so anyway. It's a relatively small adjustment, in the context of all that's happening. Some people seem to take some perverse pride in not participating in mitigation efforts - I don't understand that mindset really.

I think gloves are probably wasted on most people, especially with this particular virus. The virus does not enter through the skin of the hands, so transmission typically goes from touching something with your hands to touching your face with your hands. That works just as well with gloves on your hands as without.

Gloves aren't useless, especially for those who know how to properly use them, but most people don't. Or at least not well enough that it is second nature. More likely gloves will cause people to think of themselves as protected in a way that they aren't. Soap and water and constant vigilance are probably a better choice:

https://www.npr.org/sections/goatsan...es-or-covid-19

(And before people say warning against gloves is just a way of dealing with shortages, that's partially true. Gloves used properly should be used for one task and disposed of. That's not what people are going to do because glove supplies are restricted.)

[lrfox]

Originally Posted by BostonMike7

The model is only as good as the data it receives so my assumption is that with MA having a lower number of cases yesterday compared to a few days ago, the model will be revised once again and possibly downwards. I've been watching it for a couple weeks now, and the date has continuously been pushed back, but the death tool was originally 8K, revised down to lower 6K, then to almost 7K and now back to 8200.

But even with the constant revisions, MA has consistently been projected to be one of the harder hit states.

So this speaks directly to the model in question: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/...d-19-forecast/

It seems that the big difference between local (MA) models and the Washington model is semantics re: social distancing. Literally the word “order.” MA is further along in the pandemic than many others and has a higher death toll right now. The Washington model combines that fact with our perceived lack of a stay at home order, even though the “order” in places like NH is almost exactly the same as our measures here. That models weight on the social distancing measures is skewing predictions in MA to be a lot worse than MA’s own predictions. That’s sort of what I thought the problem might be. We will see though. This next week or so will tell us a lot.

[BostonMike7]

Doesn't surprise me really. Seems the higher number of cases corresponds to areas with denser population? There are some outliers here and there.

Lynn, malden, revere, Chelsea, Brockton, Lowell, Lawrence, all the big(ger) cities in the region.

[BostonMike7]

Originally Posted by lrfox

So this speaks directly to the model in question: https://www.bostonglobe.com/2020/04/...d-19-forecast/

It seems that the big difference between local (MA) models and the Washington model is semantics re: social distancing. Literally the word “order.” MA is further along in the pandemic than many others and has a higher death toll right now. The Washington model combines that fact with our perceived lack of a stay at home order, even though the “order” in places like NH is almost exactly the same as our measures here. That models weight on the social distancing measures is skewing predictions in MA to be a lot worse than MA’s own predictions. That’s sort of what I thought the problem might be. We will see though. This next week or so will tell us a lot.

That's interesting. I would think the model would take into account the cases and deaths day-by-day and resource use.

Thanks for posting that, we will have to watch it over the next week to see what happens to it.

[justyouraveragetenant]

Apperently in some states people are tired of this economic shutdown due to corona virus.

there are major protests in Michigan . there are some in OHIO and Kentucky.

It's not even may and the natives are getting restless. Some say california will be next because their numbers are low.

I watched some of the protests in Michigan and you wont find protesters there wearing masks. Unless its a guy fox mask. Some where even showing off their big guns.

I don't think we have to worry about that here in massechusets. Some poster here was wondering why people where not following all the orders and its because the governers in some states are abusing their power with unconstitutional orders. A buisness can refuse to let you in if you do not have a mask but a governor can not mandate masks should be worn in public.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p17VpYVKCtQ

people want to go back to work they can not access unemployment benefits.

[mdovell]

I had a feeling this was going to happen. When is first started they didn't release where this was happening anywhere and some people doubted numbers. Then it came out that there's a huge bulk and nursing homes and assisted living facilities. Supposedly 44% of fatalities of happened in such buildings.

Send some of these are privately-run what happens when they refused to get out numbers? Well two out of three and Greenfield are not doing so.

https://www.recorder.com/Nursing-hom...photo-33891578

"On the other hand, Poet’s Seat Health Care Center on High Street is admitting hospital patients who have shown no symptoms of COVID-19 for 72 hours after being hospitalized for various lengths of time, according to Michele Carney, who manages the facility, which is overseen by CMC Health Care Management LLC.

“We’re not obligated to release numbers to the public,” Carney said when asked how many of Poet’s Seat’s residents have tested positive for COVID-19.

Asked how many deaths from COVID-19 Poet’s Seat has had, Carney said, “I’m not releasing those numbers.”

She also would not give any details about how residents who have tested positive are separated from other residents. Carney also declined to answer questions about whether any staff have fallen ill or tested positive for COVID-19."

" Repeated requests for information and questions of Buckley HealthCare Center on Laurel Street have gone unanswered. At one point late last week, a spokesperson said someone would reach out to answer a reporter’s questions, but no one had done so as of Wednesday.

At the end of March, the Greenfield Recorder reported there were 17 COVID-19 cases at Buckley, but it has received no information since, and repeated phone calls and emails have gone unanswered. Four residents had tested positive there by mid-March and another 13 by the end of the month. It is not clear whether there have been any more cases or whether anyone has died of the disease."

even if you had no new cases to report it would be nice for an organization to say that periodically rather than the go weeks without hearing anything.


" When asked for specific numbers from all three facilities, Marybeth McCabe, a spokesperson for the state Department of Public Heath, replied by email that “the Department of Public Health (DPH) publishes cumulative, statewide data about COVID-19 cases and deaths in nursing homes and rest homes on our daily dashboard” at bit.ly/2RFezL4.

She said “data is not available” about how many residents in the skilled nursing facilities have been hospitalized and how many have died.

McCabe said “DPH receives information about deaths in nursing homes through data received via death certificates. Additionally, on April 6, nursing homes were directed to use the Health Care Facility Reporting System (HCFRS) to report any deaths that are presumed or confirmed to be related to COVID-19 that occur in their facilities. DPH has not provided facilities with a required timeframe, but expects it to be completed in a timely manner.”

She also said “the results from tests conducted by the state Public Health Laboratory and clinical/commercial labs are reported electronically to DPH directly by the testing entity and not by individual facilities or municipalities.”

McCabe said it is up to individual facilities whether they choose to make the number of COVID-19 cases within their facilities available to the public, but must report cases to DPH and the State Public Health Laboratory."

so these facilities don't have to legally report to the state and if something does happen for a death it's only to be reported in a timely manner? How long is that a day? A week? 3 weeks?

I recently lost my grandmother. I would be extremely upset if she was still alive today and living in one of these facilities. The state has to make some significant changes on the regulations of these because this isn't right.

[sawyer2]

30 of approximately 115 resident have died at a nursing home in Belmont. Very sad for a very vulnerable group - most were over 80 I believe.

https://belmont.wickedlocal.com/news...ue-to-covid-19

This is happening across the country, and internationally.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...he-coronavirus

[justyouraveragetenant]

Originally Posted by sawyer2

30 of approximately 115 resident have died at a nursing home in Belmont. Very sad for a very vulnerable group - most were over 80 I believe.

https://belmont.wickedlocal.com/news...ue-to-covid-19

This is happening across the country, and internationally.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...he-coronavirus

It says all symptomatic people can return to work after no symptoms after 24 hours. How do they know someone is not still contagious after 24 hours? I heard even people that recover from this virus can be contagious long after their symptoms disapear. Does anyone know how long a person can be contagious?

[sawyer2]

Originally Posted by justyouraveragetenant

It says all symptomatic people can return to work after no symptoms after 24 hours. How do they know someone is not still contagious after 24 hours? I heard even people that recover from this virus can be contagious long after their symptoms disapear. Does anyone know how long a person can be contagious?

Current CDC guidance
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...n-to-work.html

Return to Work Criteria for HCP with Confirmed or Suspected COVID-19
Use the Test-based strategy as the preferred method for determining when HCP may return to work in healthcare settings:

Test-based strategy. Exclude from work until
Resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and
Improvement in respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, shortness of breath), and
Negative results of an FDA Emergency Use Authorized molecular assay for COVID-19 from at least two consecutive nasopharyngeal swab specimens collected ≥24 hours apart (total of two negative specimens) [1]. See Interim Guidelines for Collecting, Handling, and Testing Clinical Specimens for 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV).
If the Test-based strategy cannot be used, the Non-test-based strategy may be used for determining when HCP may return to work in healthcare settings:

Non-test-based strategy. Exclude from work until
At least 3 days (72 hours) have passed since recovery defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and improvement in respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, shortness of breath); and,
At least 7 days have passed since symptoms first appeared
HCP with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who have not had any symptoms should be excluded from work until 10 days have passed since the date of their first positive COVID-19 diagnostic test assuming they have not subsequently developed symptoms since their positive test.

If HCP had COVID-19 ruled out and have an alternate diagnosis (e.g., tested positive for influenza), criteria for return to work should be based on that diagnosis.

[mdovell]

I was thinking earlier about this. If first responders have N95's that great but there's a bigger issue here. The HVAC systems. Back in 1918 the concept was to keep windows open as there were only fans back then (at least as far as I know).

Having said this as more people are living at home and even if you get 99% filtration eventually that 1% is going to add up.