Coronavirus in Massachusetts (Boston, Plymouth, Rehoboth: monument, pilgrim, club)

[jayrandom]

Originally Posted by redplum33

Provincetown July 4th outbreak

551 cases now

70% are vaccinated breakthrough cases

88% are men. Average age is 39.

53 tests were sent in for additional testing. All 53 came back as delta variant.

Source: saw this on Providence Channel 10 news

Before anyone gets unnecessarily panicked, these data are pretty meaningless without the appropriate context. We have known since the beginning that the vaccines are not 100% effective. It should not be surprising that there are breakthrough cases.

The percentage of "vaccinated breakthrough cases" in particularly is misleading. If 100% of the population were vaccinated, 100% of cases would be breakthrough cases. All the research suggests that the Pfizer vaccine is still about 90% effective against the delta variant[1]. The same is true with the age and sex results; it shouldn't be a surprise that Provincetown has transmission among younger men. I'm sure if they reported the proportion of LGBT cases relative to the population as a whole it would lead to similarly unwarranted conclusions.

Originally Posted by rach5

I wouldn't suggest academic covid papers as great bedtime reading for anyone with even the slightest bit of insomnia.

I wouldn't recommend reading the internet if you're prone to being terrified. There is a lot of speculative garbage out there. Peer-reviewed papers are almost always dry and have muted conclusions, and, at least for me require actually thinking about stuff in a way that can't be done when I'm sleepy. The popular media account of a paper is generally a lot more inflammatory than the actual paper. I have a friend who is constantly screaming on Facebook about what HIS OWN UNIVERSITY overstates about his research on what is a far less controversial field.

[1]https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

Effectiveness after one dose of vaccine (BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19) was notably lower among persons with the delta variant (30.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 25.2 to 35.7) than among those with the alpha variant (48.7%; 95% CI, 45.5 to 51.7); the results were similar for both vaccines. With the BNT162b2 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 93.7% (95% CI, 91.6 to 95.3) among persons with the alpha variant and 88.0% (95% CI, 85.3 to 90.1) among those with the delta variant. With the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine, the effectiveness of two doses was 74.5% (95% CI, 68.4 to 79.4) among persons with the alpha variant and 67.0% (95% CI, 61.3 to 71.8) among those with the delta variant.

[Amontillado]

I'd very much like to know what the factors were which led to this outbreak in Provincetown. It's the first cluster of cases that I've heard of where most of the victims are vaccinated--could it happen elsewhere, or is there something unique that made it possible? And of course, we want to know that the people who caught the disease will recover, the way they say breakthrough cases usually do.

Edited to add this link, which I found later:
https://abcnews.go.com/US/provinceto...ry?id=79052632

[yesmaybe]

Originally Posted by Amontillado

I'd very much like to know what the factors were which led to this outbreak in Provincetown.

Given PTown, sex probably. Should be testing them for more than just Covid.

[Shrewsburried]

Originally Posted by yesmaybe

Given PTown, sex probably. Should be testing them for more than just Covid.

Perhaps Peter Duesberg can add Covid to his list of imagined diseases induced by gay-men taking 'poppers'.

/s

[Amontillado]

Yes, that is a possibility. If sexual behavior can spread COVID, then everyone needs to be aware of it. So far I think it's just been seen as a question of getting close to someone else, but maybe there's more to it. It will take a while to record all the details of how this disease spreads. That's especially important for anything that affects people who think they're protected by the vaccine.

[bostongymjunkie]

This obviously comes as a surprise to some, but I can assure you that people are having sex all over the world, not just PTown.

[BostonMike7]

I think i read that of the 550ish cases, 3 are hospitalized. 1 of those is confirmed vaccinated, and it was mentioned they will likely be released from the hospital shortly.

[msRB311]

Originally Posted by bostongymjunkie

This obviously comes as a surprise to some, but I can assure you that people are having sex all over the world, not just PTown.

Yes, but an area like P-Town is simply just well known as a place for people to 'hook up' though. I'm sure people are letting their guard down more now that they are vaccinated. Obviously swapping saliva is going to enhance the risks moreso than just walking by someone or talking to them.

[htfdcolt]

Originally Posted by Amontillado

Yes, that is a possibility. If sexual behavior can spread COVID, then everyone needs to be aware of it. So far I think it's just been seen as a question of getting close to someone else, but maybe there's more to it. It will take a while to record all the details of how this disease spreads. That's especially important for anything that affects people who think they're protected by the vaccine.

I think the implication is not sex itself (as in, exchange of fluids), but the circumstances surrounding sexual encounters (unmasked, very close physical contact, extended exposure time). No one is inferring a new transmission mechanism!

[bostongymjunkie]

Originally Posted by msRB311

Yes, but an area like P-Town is simply just well known as a place for people to 'hook up' though. I'm sure people are letting their guard down more now that they are vaccinated. Obviously swapping saliva is going to enhance the risks moreso than just walking by someone or talking to them.

You can apply that logic to every bar and club in every city in the state, dozens of beaches, and a plethora of phone apps.


Edit: What PTown does have is a lot of older people (median age 52) and I would also guess there might be a higher concentration of people with compromised immune systems.