Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Houston, Dallas: housing, payment)

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by DPatel304

Also that number (presumably) includes all age groups, right? I'm basically trying to figure out that if/when we do completely open, how dangerous is it to just let the healthy people (mostly) resume their normal lives and keep the high-risk people at home.

I doubt there is any real data that can tell us what that would look like because, as you pointed out, we simply aren't testing enough people.

Most old people can't be completely isolated from young people. Their nurses, caretakers, family members, etc. are often young and healthy. If we see a very high rate of infection among young people, we will see a spike in old people.

It isn't just nursing home folks who are in the "old enough to die" category.

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Edit to add: Today was the highest death toll the US has had yet (2,804 so far). We are still seeing around 30,000 new cases on a daily bases. What about these numbers indicates we are "over" any sort of peak? We don't need to stay shut down until there is a vaccine, but opening up when we are barely past peak new daily cases and are nowhere near peak active cases and just hit peak (thus far) daily deaths seems crazy.

[Ralph_Kirk]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Most old people can't be completely isolated from young people. Their nurses, caretakers, family members, etc. are often young and healthy. If we see a very high rate of infection among young people, we will see a spike in old people.

It isn't just nursing home folks who are in the "old enough to die" category.

Yes. Most people 60 and over are not in nursing homes (which are their own kind of vector hell). Most elderly people are being taken care of by younger people...or taking care of younger people.



Okay, yeah, my 30-year-old daughter just moved back in with us.

[sanz7887]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/22/healt...lts/index.html
The new coronavirus appears to be causing sudden strokes in adults in their 30s and 40s who are not otherwise terribly ill, doctors reported Wednesday.

They said patients may be unwilling to call 911 because they have heard hospitals are overwhelmed by coronavirus cases.
There's growing evidence that Covid-19 infection can cause the blood to clot in unusual ways, and stroke would be an expected consequence of that.


this is really scary

[move4ward]

Originally Posted by PACman2521

Estimates vary widely.

https://twitter.com/naval/status/1252185901087592448

It is already known that the number of cases in France, Italy and Spain were undercounted, due to not enough tests. The deaths per case looks like 10%+.

The WHO reports that fatality rates is around 1-2%. If we look at South Korea and Germany, where contact tracing is done. It falls in line those numbers.

Worldometer Deaths and Cases per Country: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

The initial deaths reported by most countries include only hospital deaths. There is a lag in the reporting of deaths from nursing homes and residences. Death rate may end up being 1-2%, when undercounted total cases are included.

NY Times provides free access to Coronavirus articles, but registration is required. No subscription or payment is needed though.

Note: Sweden includes Coronavirus deaths outside of hospitals. France and Spain do not include Coronavirus deaths outside of hospitals.

28,000 Missing Deaths:
Tracking the True Toll of the Coronavirus Crisis https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...ng-deaths.html

At least 28,000 more people have died during the coronavirus pandemic over the last month than the official Covid-19 death counts report, a review of mortality data in 11 countries shows — providing a clearer, if still incomplete, picture of the toll of the crisis.

In the last month, far more people died in these countries than in previous years, The New York Times found. The totals include deaths from Covid-19 as well as those from other causes, likely including people who could not be treated as hospitals became overwhelmed.

[Runnn]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

Agree with you completely. There are far more unreported infections. The number of unreported deaths related to COVID-19 could be quite low and my understanding is that this is being added after the fact. They updated the NY numbers and US number of deaths in the last few days. There are reports that deaths due to pneumonia or heart attacks are being added to COVID-19 deaths, since hospitals get funding based on COVID-19 numbers. So, in effect, the number of deaths being reported could be assumed to be accurate.

However, the death rate really does not matter in my opinion. It is the absolute number of deaths that matter. If there is 100,000 deaths from COVID-19 for this year, with social distancing measures in place, that is a big number, relative to other causes of death. Although I do not think we will get there. We will stay at around 75000 for this year, including the next wave which may begin late next fall.

The one question no one would be able to know for sure is what could have been the total number of deaths, if no social distancing measures would have been in effect, and whether closing the country and the economy was worth it. (I know few on this forum do not like this specific argument, but it is a valid argument.) Adjustments of the projected death numbers, with social distancing measures, from 100,000 to 240,000 adjusted to 82,000 to now 60,000, does prove that the models were giving false numbers. I understand that we had no choice, but to adopt social distancing measures, since there were a lot of unknowns with this virus, and doing nothing was not an option. I hope we have learnt our lessons and handle the next wave or pandemic with a much more measured and preventive approach.

I agree with you and the contributor you were quoting regarding the very inaccurate # of infections (low side), but that's because it supports the narrative (media & left) for shutting things down. Much higher infections/exposure translates to a less problematic concern, at least for all but the vulnerable among us, for the hospital system at large. The death # is more accurate, as you both noted, but the cause of the death isn't very accurate. There's been numerous reports indicating that many folks may have died with COVID-19, but not necessarily from COVID-19. Finally, it is my understanding there's still no vaccine for SARS or MARS, so I'm not totally optimistic that one will be developed for COVID-19 either? I hope so for our economic health.

[Runnn]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

This is counter-intuitive in my opinion. We need contact tracing precisely in cities (not necessarily the complete state) which has a hub airport that receives both domestic and international travelers.

Also, Singapore seems to have a surge again within immigrant communities, who live in cramped, close proximity and where no ample testing was carried out during the first wave.

So, i think we need contact tracing apparatus setup for cities with heavy traffic airports and communities with dense population.

Intra-China travel from and to Wuhan was severely restricted, if not totally shutdown until recently, so that probably explains why Singapore had almost no cases for an extended period while Wuhan was blowing up. Furthermore, China stopped internal flights from Wuhan, yet allowed International flights leaving Wuhan which is going to be one component of the overall investigation into what caused this pandemic.

[pharpe]

Could someone please explain the anti mask stance?

We just shut down most retail commerce and told everyone stay at home. That had dramatic impact on people's livelihood and the economy. This could be one of the biggest forfeiture of our freedoms, in the name of public safety, in history and for the most part people took that with stride.

But when asked to wear a mask (which literally has no negative impacts to anyone) the **** hits the fan? I just don't get it.

[move4ward]

Taiwan and South Korea open their small businesses and keep their factories running, while wearing masks. They are not wearing the K95 masks that doctors use.

I have been unemployed for 6 weeks. I will be happy to wear a mask to reopen the economy and avoid eviction, starvation, and depression.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by pharpe

Could someone please explain the anti mask stance?

We just shut down most retail commerce and told everyone stay at home. That had dramatic impact on people's livelihood and the economy. This could be one of the biggest forfeiture of our freedoms, in the name of public safety, in history and for the most part people took that with stride.

But when asked to wear a mask (which literally has no negative impacts to anyone) the **** hits the fan? I just don't get it.

Selfishness and/or ignorance, plain and simple.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by move4ward

The WHO reports that fatality rates is around 1-2%. If we look at South Korea and Germany, where contact tracing is done. It falls in line those numbers.

This sounds about right to me, and it jives with what I've heard a few epidemiologists say. Right now, we are averaging about a 6-7% death rate per known case (30k new daily cases, 2k daily deaths a week later), so that would mean there are about six times as many cases as are known.

I would be surprised if actual cases are understated by a factor of more than 5-10x.


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Btw, people, we are still seeing about 30k new cases and 2k deaths daily. There is no significant downward trend here. It is very slight and subtle, and it likely will persist for quite a while. We'll likely hit the 50k death figure today.

Fortunately, Texas seems to be faring extremely well. Perhaps this is because Texas cities are much more spread out and don't rely heavily on public transit. Who knows. But Texas' cases per million and deaths per million figures are about the lowest of any state that has significant cities and a decent population base.