Coronavirus in DFW - News & Discussion (Howe: humidity, date)

[CDContribuitor]

Did not understand your argument on why Singapore had almost no cases for an extended period?

Originally Posted by Runnn

Intra-China travel from and to Wuhan was severely restricted, if not totally shutdown until recently, so that probably explains why Singapore had almost no cases for an extended period while Wuhan was blowing up. Furthermore, China stopped internal flights from Wuhan, yet allowed International flights leaving Wuhan which is going to be one component of the overall investigation into what caused this pandemic.

[serger]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

If the antibody tests from NYC and California are correct and those same trends exist around the country that would mean that the mortality rate could be as low as .12%. Its too early to tell right now though how accurate those antibody tests are.

How?
If antibody tests are correct, up to 1.7 million in NYC might have had it, but they had 16k deaths

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

If the antibody tests from NYC and California are correct and those same trends exist around the country that would mean that the mortality rate could be as low as .12%. Its too early to tell right now though how accurate those antibody tests are.

The one from New York indicated 13% of the population was infected. Current case numbers show a 1.3% infection rate, so that would mean we are understated by a factor of ten. We currently have a 6-7% death rate, so that would mean we are at .6-.7% for the death rate. Of course, the study in New York was done on people who are out grocery shopping and doing other shopping, so it likely self-selected for people who are less-cautious with quarantining. That's a big asterisk on the results.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by serger

How?
If antibody tests are correct, up to 1.7 million in NYC might have had it, but they had 16k deaths

Based on that math, that would be a death rate of .09%, which is not too far off of the .12% figure the other poster mentioned. But that's not how you calculate death rate during an ongoing pandemic.

[serger]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Based on that math, that would be a death rate of .09%, which is not too far off of the .12% figure the other poster mentioned. But that's not how you calculate death rate during an ongoing pandemic.

But it's 0.9%!

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

Originally Posted by serger

But it's 0.9%!

Sorry, good catch. Yes, it's .9%, not .09%. So .12% is far off.

I expect .9% to be close to the final number. It's worth noting that the .9% figure is certainly low because many new cases have been added in the last week or so that have not produced their deaths yet. So, .09% and .12% are even further off.

[As Above So Below...]

Originally Posted by Wittgenstein's Ghost

Sorry, good catch. Yes, it's .9%, not .09%. So .12% is far off.

I expect .9% to be close to the final number. It's worth noting that the .9% figure is certainly low because many new cases have been added in the last week or so that have not produced their deaths yet. So, .09% and .12% are even further off.

I was including the study done in California. That’s where .12-.2% came in.

[cordata]

Originally Posted by CDContribuitor

SARS or MERS did not need a vaccine since it completely disappeared. It does not look like COVID-19 will just disappear and it is bound to return in fall/winter. If it does not return, it would be a miracle.

I just hope that we did not over-react to this crisis. Remember this quote from Dr. Fauci in mid-March which went on the following lines - "6 months from now, I would rather say we over-reacted than we under-reacted."

Also, I do not understand why there is not a push from the health officials on boosting immunity level through natural means like immunity boosting food like ginger, garlic, turmeric and vitamin supplements. I understand it is not a cure for any virus, however it helps in preventing getting the virus and managing it effectively, if you end up getting the virus. (On a side note, saw a note at the entrance in Costco that they were sold out on Emergen-C. That is a good sign that people are taking immunity boosting remedies.)

The reason is likely that there is little to no scientific evidence that these immunity boosters do anything in general much less protect you from SARS-COV-2.

[Wittgenstein's Ghost]

We crossed 50k deaths nationally today, and Texas added just over 900 new cases and 26 deaths. One thing that is interesting to me is that Texas is currently experiencing a lower death rate than most other states. There is an average of about 800-1000 new cases per day, and that's been pretty steady for a while now. Those 800-1000 cases are producing around 25-30 deaths per day, which is a death rate of about 3%. Nationally, we are closer to 6-7% (30k new cases, 2k deaths on average). Maybe Texas is testing more? Perhaps the overall lower level of cases relative to the population and resources is allowing a higher percentage of actual positives to be tested positives. I doubt it's actually a lower death rate, but I guess that's not impossible. I think it's more likely, though, that the denominator (number of cases) is larger due to higher testing rates of actual positives.

Nationally, there is very little downward momentum. Today was one of the worst days yet. There were almost 32,000 new cases (31,900) and 2,342 deaths. Both of those numbers are among the worst we've had yet. Remember, the absolute worst day for new cases was "just" 34,500, and that was April 4. Think about that. We "peaked" in terms of new daily cases almost three weeks ago, but today's figures were still within 7% of the peak day. Further, we've had an additional five days of 32,000+ cases since the peak day. This is what flattening the curve looks like. Yes, the peak is lower....but it is much, much longer.

Btw, Italy finally hit their peak for active cases (peak virus) on the 19th. If you look at the numbers, though, their drop from the peak was much quicker than ours has been, and it still took them 28 days to go from peak new daily cases to peak virus (peak active cases). We hit peak new daily cases on April 4, but it's very, very unlikely that we will hit peak active cases by May 2. We are 19 days past peak new daily cases, and we are still within 7% of the top daily case figure. When Italy was 19 days past peak new daily cases, they had dropped almost 40%.

All of this is to say that our curve has flattened, but it's basically flattened at or near the peak. We have not seen the same drop from the peak that Italy saw, and even their drop took almost a month to go from peak new daily cases to peak active cases. We still have a long road ahead of us.

I honestly cannot see how we don't end up with at or near 100k deaths. At this rate, that's only about 25 days away. I'm hopeful that things will slow down, but thus far, our numbers are dropping very, very slowly....and I can't imagine that the openings will help that.

[CDContribuitor]

https://covid19.healthdata.org/unite...-america/texas

Projected 1240 deaths for Texas and 67400 deaths for US until 8/4.