[7 Wishes]

Originally Posted by Lowerdeck

Here's my wishcast for Oct. 29-30, anywhere between Boston and Richmond - no precip.

As for Cambium's "Snow in NYC on Oct 29-31":

Do you know how rare snow in October (even flurries) is in NYC itself? In fact I know it well because it actually occurred twice in the last decade, both times on my birthday (Oct. 29), in 2000 and 2002 (in 2000 it was coming down hard enough to stick but it wasn't warm enough. But the last time before that (which is also the earliest in the season trace of snow in NYC history) was on Oct. 9, 1979 (which in places like Hartford, Albany and Worcester actually produced sticking snow....I think Worcester actually got about 2").........although on Oct. 4 1987 Bridgeport got 1/2" of snow and snow fell in most areas in eastern NY State from northern Westchester County on north......but "the City" got rain!

The point is that it is rare enough in NY City itself (and even "north of the City" and in southern New England, but ESPECIALLY in NY City) that I think it is very unlikely we'll see snow on my birthday or Halloween, etc. but I guess you never know......

[Lowerdeck]

I wasn't talking about just snow. Rain, snow, whatever - don't want it on the weekend.

[Cambium]

Gonna be a long winter for me at this pace! Sucks...hope its the last of the 70s..la Nina is kicking butt..jet stream doesn't want to stay dipped!

[wavehunter007]

For all of those who have been watching the lows/frost-free days across Connecticut/Tri-State area …it looks as though the two main NWS reporting stations in Connecticut escaped this past weekend without a frost, as did many locations across the Atlantic lowlands in the Tri-State area. The last two nights (Fri/Sat night) were the two coldest nights this whole month. With the warm pattern the rest of the week there is little chnace of frost this week across the area. Here were the official lows NWS lows Fri night (the colder of the two nights):

Bridgeport, Connecticut - 42 F
Central Park (NYC) - 44 F
Windsor Locks, Connecticut (Bradley Airport) – 33 F
Atlantic City, NJ - 45 F
My location coastal Connecticut - 38. 7 F

NWS Bradley (in far northern Connecticut) has not had a frost since May 13th…163 days ago. It looks like even up in northern Connecticut the next 6 or 7 nights will be mild and well above freezing (32 F/0 C). So NWS Bradley will likely end up having with at least 170 frost free days this year. This is surprising for a location so far north in Connecticut. Across southern Connecticut, and the coastal lowlands I’m not nearly as surprised. Some areas have not had frost since late March. NWS Bridgeport/Central Park last reported a frost on March 27th…and by weeks end they will have had 216 frost free days. My last frost in the garden was also on March 27th. From what I can see, there seems to be another chance of a big general frost across far southern /coastal Connecticut on November 1 or so.

[Lowerdeck]

We had a frost once or twice up here in the hills. Of course Windsor Locks isn't going to have one, being down in the valley.

[7 Wishes]

On another weather forum, someone noted to me (confirmed by OKX website) that it also snowed (though barely) on Oct 28-29, 2008 (hmm, look a couple of posts up there must be something about that 29th date and snow in the 2000s decade :-))......Newark Airport and Bridgeport recorded a trace but none of the other tri-state area airports recorded any flurries.

[Cambium]

Nov. 2-5...one model showing a storm intensifying off the coast and heading up to NYC...starting as snow changing to rain which makes sense because cold air will be in place and the storm from south will pull warmer air with it...

We'll see.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Things starting to get interesting!!!!

The upper level trough is going to be digging deep and moving east!

Halloween weekend will bring upper 20's to low 30's around here.

Meanwhile some fronts coming through..
Oct 30th give or take 1 day and Nov. 3rd give or take 1 day...during these times its possible points in virginia could see flakes..nyc could get snow..

Don't worry its not going to be a foot or half foot but even just seeing snow is interesting this time of year...

I hope this pattern stays! Once coastal waters cool down then we can hope for a coastal low riding up the coast with cold air in place to give us that big storm. :-)

Lots of interesting things happening..the change is refreshing to see instead of the warm temps and little precip.

I posted that on October 21st.

I think we need to keep re-reading the last 2 paragraphs... the trend could continue to January.... That would mean lots of snow here Dec/Jan. Maybe even Nov.

Just installed snow tires so I'm ready.

[jp03]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I posted that on October 21st.

I think we need to keep re-reading the last 2 paragraphs... the trend could continue to January.... That would mean lots of snow here Dec/Jan. Maybe even Nov.

Just installed snow tires so I'm ready.

AHhahaa...how come you only remind us of the posts that were correct? The rest of em seem to just, kinda ..I dunno, get conveniently forgotten..

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

I posted that on October 21st.

I think we need to keep re-reading the last 2 paragraphs... the trend could continue to January.... That would mean lots of snow here Dec/Jan. Maybe even Nov.

Just installed snow tires so I'm ready.

I know you’re a huge winter fan, but I would just be cautious of the some of the hype the Weather Channel/AccuWeather spins: Do you have any idea how low the odds are of a snowstorm in the Tri-State area are in November…let alone just snow?

Just take the three NWS stations in Connecticut – Bradley, Norwich, and Bridgeport:

Mean Date For first 0.1 inches of snow (1948 -2000):
Bridgeport – December 5
Norwich – December 15
November - 23

Mean Date for first 1.0 inches of snow (1948 – 2000):
Bridgeport – December 21
Norwich – December 20
Bradley - December 1

In fact, according to the NOAA climate normal’s for NWS Bridgeport/Norwich – the is a mean of 0 (zero) inches of snowfall in the first 24 days of November…meaning from 1948 – to 2009 the long term average snowfall is “zero” across both NWS stations in 25 of 30 days of the month. Even NWS at Bradley Airport in extreme northern Connecticut (7 miles from the Massachusetts state line) has a mean date of December 1st for the first 1 inch of snow. Several spots in Connecticut have not even had a frost yet.

Looking for snow/snowstorms in November in the Tri-State area (beyond the highest elevations like the NW Hills/NW NJ...etc) is like hoping for a 99-yard touchdown pass with 0.2 seconds left in the game. Possible yes. Likely, no.