[Cambium]

POSTED ON October 21...I said 2 weeks....It was actually 2 weeks and 4 days....

Sometimes its more than models, stats, and history with weather..

What I'm worried about is a change in pattern and we get a warm December.

Originally Posted by Cambium

It snowed at 1470 feet in NY. Lakewood I believe...it's coming. Seems like its snowing 1000 feet in elevation less than previous weeks. Started at 4000 feet 2 weeks ago. Then 3000 last week...now 1470? At this pace we should be seeing snow in 2 weeks by the coast.

[Stratford, Ct. Resident]

Originally Posted by andthentherewere3

My dh just called, he's on the Parkway in Norwalk. He's heading south, and he passed a huge multi-car accident on the northbound side. As he passed he watched several cars coming around the curve smashing into the cars already involved in the accident, they were unable to stop. He said it's snowing heavily there right now. At least it wasn't on the southbound side. (so far!)

I also saw that accident as it happened! It was Parkway Pinball along a 2 mile stretch on the northbound side. Every 1/4 mile, a clump of mangled vehicles. I saw that News12 reported 13 damaged vehicles, but that is incorrect. I saw at least 21 in that stretch. The van that rolled over on the ramp at 40 appeared to be the worst of all though.

[Cambium]

Merrit in my opinion is the scariest road to be on when icy or snowy..its the hills, curves, sudden car stops, and elevation being interior that make it an absolute nightmare...

Some people just don't watch the temps and weather like I do... I took 95 this morning before knowing there was an accident on merrit....I don't take chances on Merrit when temps hover around 32 or snow falls..I'd rather take post road

[Lowerdeck]

This morning was fun trying to get to work. I woke up about 4 am to the sound of sleet bouncing off the windows - and knew I was gonna be in for a fun one.

The highway was a total mess in Killingly, and saw someone doing a three point turn in the middle of 395 South just after x93 because of a spinout.

Also saw a jackknifed 18-wheeler just after x99 blocking the left lane, and a minivan up against the median guardrail pointing the wrong way between x88 and x89 northbound.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Yeap! Like a kid in candy store... It was snowing heavy!!! Winds are wicked and bringing fridgid air with it... Wasnt sticking till after 10 minutes...Changed to sleet now...should be all rain till after lunch since temps going up a little now.

Wow that was fun... Pattern is set...its gonna be an interesting season!! Get ready folks...Prepare any way you can.

You did get it right…we saw a very rare dusting of snow in the low elevations of the Tri-State area before early December! We even heard some thunder down here along the coast as well. However, we need to put this “heavy snow” in perspective: A handful of stations reported from 0.1 to 1.3 inches (I got about 0.3 inches -lol). It melted in less than two hours in most areas.

National Weather Service Forecast Office - Upton, NY

Also, I would not get too excited about a fleeting slushy, half inch of snow…it really means little in terms of what the pattern will be in the three winter months(Dec/Jan/Feb). In fact, in the coming days the pattern will warm (not cool) and by late this week highs across the Tri-State area will be near 60 F. We really won't know what the real cold season pattern will be (or locked into) for a few more weeks.

[Cambium]

Arctic air after November 20th to possibly December 4th.....coldest air of the season!!!!! Teens possible ... Accumulating snowstorms "possible"..


I wonder if all the volcanos erupting(iceland, indonesia) have anything to do with this early cold spell..

Average temp for nov is 58.

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Arctic air after November 20th to possibly December 4th.....coldest air of the season!!!!! Teens possible ... Accumulating snowstorms "possible"..

From what I can see…there is little chance of any real arctic getting as far east as the Tri-State area/East Coast until mid December (which is text book normal). I think much of this has to do with what temps are 1000 miles to the north/northwest : According to several sources, temps should be warmer than normal to our north in the coming weeks. Here is Brett Anderson’s take on the next 5 weeks or so:
AccuWeather.com - Brett Anderson | Long Range Weather into December (http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/41300/long-range-weather-into-december.asp - broken link)


So it looks like next week (Nov 15 -21th) , temps down in the USA ( with the exception of the northwestern states - Montana to the Dakotas) …will stay mild or normal. Much of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/East Coast should see normal to slightly above normal temps:

http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff141/nomadct/winter2.jpg (broken link)


The last week of November and the first week of December (Nov 29th Dec 6th) seems to follow the same pattern…some lake effect snows…wet at the margins of the mainland (upper West Coast/upper East Coast)...mild/seasonable in much of the central/eastern USA, drier in southern Canada, and unseasonably mild up in Northern Canada. To me that says that as long as the Canadian high latitudes stay on the normal or even warmer than normal side…cold air will have a hard time getting down into the USA – especially east of the Midwest. Warm temps in Canada are not going to help in getting cold air down into the USA. Notice the only very cold air(realtive to normal) is in the far west (western Canada):

http://i236.photobucket.com/albums/ff141/nomadct/winter3.jpg (broken link)



Who knows if Brett and others are right? However, I still think true winter weather on the East Coast from CT/NYC southward…with sustained cold and real snowstorms...will not happen until the pattern to our north changes. That might not happen until late December the way it looks right now. I guess we’ll find out – lol.


.

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[Cambium]

The wintry weather occured 57 years to the day of the earliest snowstorm on record in southwestern Connecticut. Nearly a half-foot (5.4") of snow fell at Sikorsky Memorial Airport in Stratford on Friday, November 6 (3.4") and Saturday, November 7 (2.0"), 1953.

[Cambium]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Arctic air after November 20th to possibly December 4th.....coldest air of the season!!!!! Teens possible ... Accumulating snowstorms "possible"..


I wonder if all the volcanos erupting(iceland, indonesia) have anything to do with this early cold spell..

Average temp for nov is 58.

Some models backing off that fridgid cold...still long term so we'll see. But if you follow the 10 day forecast watch the Nov. 20 date changing... Right now they have a High for 49 low of 36....

[wavehunter007]

Originally Posted by Cambium

Some models backing off that fridgid cold...still long term so we'll see. But if you follow the 10 day forecast watch the Nov. 20 date changing... Right now they have a High for 49 low of 36....

Well, we seem to be in the summer doldrums weatherwise…only in late fall (lol).

November has been pretty tame across the Tri-State area, and really much of the eastern half of the USA. We had a dusting of snow down here along the coast a few days ago (0.3 inches-lol). Otherwise, most lows seem to be heading toward the Great Lakes. This weekend, as another low heads up into the Great lakes - Minnesota will see a good old fashioned snow storm (a foot of snow will fall in Minneapolis and Duluth). Once again this will advect warm subtropical air up the East Coast. Highs this weekend will climb into the lower to mid 60’s from NYC/Connecticut southward to Washington DC. One interesting note – there seems to have been few frosts in the lowlands of the Tri-State area. Grass is still quite green in many areas, as very few nights have gone down below 32 F. In fact, officially at the NWS office in Bridgeport – there has been NO frost. The lowest temp so far has been 33 F (on November 1st). I'm sure that's not what winter fans were hoping for - lol.

Another low will head for the Great Lakes about a week from now, and pull the cold air in behind. This time it will be pushed from behind,as a large high builds across Alaska and the Yukon into the Northwest Territories, the biggest we've seen so far this cold season. This cold air will work into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest late next week then head down to the East Coast by next weekend. However, it looks more and more like the cold will be diminished in intensity by the time it comes down here…so in the end we in the Tri-State area will be lucky if the highs stay below 50 F. So it looks like the last two weeks of November will continue on the mild and tame side along the East Coast. December and the offical start to meterological winter will arrive with its work cut out for it.